2027: Distrust, Vote Buying Threaten Turnout, Says Yiaga Africa

What did Yiaga Africa’s NVIS 3.0 survey find about Nigerians’ willingness to vote in the 2027 elections?

Yiaga Africa’s NVIS 3.0 measured Nigerians’ intentions before the 2027 general elections. It found broad willingness to vote, but also warned that insecurity, distrust and money in politics could prevent that willingness from becoming turnout. This matters because elections depend not only on people’s stated intentions, but also on whether they feel safe and believe participation will matter.

The survey interviewed 2,470 adults across Nigeria’s 36 states and the FCT in September 2026. Overall, 84% said they were likely or very likely to vote. Yet the “very likely” share fell from 52% in NVIS 1.0 to 47% in NVIS 3.0. Only 41% were very certain about their choice.

The findings suggest a conversion problem, not widespread apathy. Fear of violence could stop 61% from voting, while only 34% trusted INEC to conduct credible elections. Yiaga Africa urged authorities to improve security, strengthen election administration and build public confidence before January 2027.

How large is the gap between Nigerians who say they are likely to vote, those who are very likely to vote, and those who trust INEC to conduct credible elections?

The survey separates general willingness from stronger commitment and institutional trust. Eighty-four percent of respondents said they were likely or very likely to vote. However, only 47% said they were very likely, and just 34% were confident that INEC would conduct credible elections. These figures reveal a large difference between wanting to participate and trusting the process.

The broad intention-to-vote figure is 50 percentage points higher than confidence in INEC. The gap between those likely or very likely to vote and those very likely is 37 points. The “very likely” figure also declined from 52% in December 2025 to 47% in September 2026. Meanwhile, INEC confidence fell from 45% in the first two survey rounds to 34%.

These gaps matter because weaker commitment can disappear when voters face danger, poor logistics or doubts about results. Yiaga Africa therefore describes turnout as a conversion problem. Institutions must turn stated willingness into safe, credible participation.

What is vote buying, and how can the monetization of politics influence whether people vote and whom they support?

Vote buying is the exchange of money, goods or other benefits for a voter’s support, attendance or non-support in an election. It is one form of political monetization. The practice matters because it can weaken free choice and make elections favor candidates with greater financial resources, rather than candidates with stronger plans.

For example, a campaign might offer cash or food before voting and ask recipients to support a particular candidate. The immediate benefit may attract some voters, especially when household finances are difficult. It can also discourage others who believe politicians care more about purchasing votes than solving problems. Payments may influence whom people support, whether they attend, or whether they feel pressured to comply.

The article identifies money as one of the forces standing between willingness and the ballot box. Yiaga Africa urged parties and candidates to sign and honor an enforceable anti-vote-buying pledge. It also called for competition based on costed plans for security and the economy.

How could fear of electoral violence keep willing voters away from polling stations, especially in regions where that fear is highest?

Fear of electoral violence can break the link between intention and turnout. People may believe voting is important, yet avoid a polling station if they fear attacks, intimidation, clashes or unsafe travel. This matters because missing voters can reduce participation and make results less representative, especially in communities already affected by insecurity.

Yiaga Africa found that 61% of respondents said fear of violence could stop them from voting. The concern was highest in the North-East, where 78% expressed it. The survey also found that 83% would be more likely to vote if security improved. These figures show how safety conditions can directly change electoral behavior.

The danger is not limited to polling day. Fear may affect campaigning, movement, access to information and confidence in the process. Yiaga Africa called for a threat-based national security plan that prioritizes the North-East, North-West and North-Central. It said authorities should protect voters, not only election materials.

What is INEC’s role in an election, and why does public confidence in it matter for turnout and acceptance of results?

INEC, Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission, is responsible for administering federal elections. Its work includes preparing election procedures, accrediting voters, managing polling operations and handling results. The commission’s effectiveness matters because voters need confidence that participation is possible, votes are recorded properly and results are treated fairly.

The article reports that only 34% of respondents were confident INEC would conduct credible elections. That figure contrasts with the 84% who were likely or very likely to vote. Confidence was especially weak in the South-East and South-South, where 62% and 57%, respectively, were not confident. Such distrust can discourage participation and fuel disputes after results are announced.

INEC must therefore provide clear, reliable procedures and communicate them openly. Yiaga Africa urged it to commit publicly to real-time uploading of polling-unit results to IReV, publish and test its results protocol, and conduct confidence-building work in skeptical regions. These steps could support both turnout and acceptance of outcomes.

How do BVAS accreditation and IReV result transmission work, and why might voters trust election technology more than the institution operating it?

BVAS means Bimodal Voter Accreditation System. It uses biometric checks, such as fingerprint or facial verification, to help confirm that an accredited voter is the registered person. IReV is an electronic platform for uploading and viewing polling-unit result sheets. Together, these tools are intended to make accreditation and result transmission more traceable.

The article says 49% of respondents trusted BVAS accreditation and IReV result transmission. That was higher than the 34% who were confident INEC would conduct credible elections. The difference may reflect a common pattern: people can value a specific, visible technology while remaining doubtful about the institution that operates it. Technology can support transparency, but it cannot independently guarantee every part of an election.

Trust will depend on reliable implementation, public access and clear procedures. Yiaga Africa urged INEC to commit to real-time uploading of all polling-unit results, publish its results-management protocol and stress-test it. These measures could connect confidence in tools with confidence in the wider process.

How does a democracy convert people’s stated intention to vote into actual turnout, and what roles do security, election administration, political parties, and the judiciary play in that process?

Stated willingness becomes actual turnout when citizens can reach polling places safely, understand the process and believe their votes will count. This conversion matters because a high intention figure means little if fear, weak administration or distrust keeps people at home. Turnout is therefore shaped by institutions and conditions, not only personal motivation.

Security agencies must protect voters and polling areas, especially where violence fears are high. INEC must provide dependable accreditation, logistics and transparent results. Political parties should offer credible, costed plans instead of relying on money or intimidation. The judiciary must resolve electoral disputes fairly and promptly, so citizens see a lawful route when results are challenged.

The survey found 84% were likely or very likely to vote, but 61% feared violence and only 34% trusted INEC. Also, 63% had little or no confidence in the judiciary’s fairness. Yiaga Africa called for a security plan, stronger IReV commitments, timely dispute resolution and anti-vote-buying pledges before 2027.

Key Facts:

📌 84% said they were likely or very likely to vote.

📌 Only 47% were very likely to vote.

📌 Fear, distrust and money could suppress turnout.

📌 84% were likely or very likely to vote.

📌 47% were very likely to vote.

📌 Only 34% trusted INEC to conduct credible elections.

📌 Vote buying exchanges benefits for electoral support or participation.