Kpler Suspects Gulf Producers Are Paying Iran for Safe Passage

What is the Strait of Hormuz, and why is it important for oil shipping?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. It connects major Gulf oil producers with international markets. Because so much crude and condensate normally travels through this route, any disruption can affect energy prices worldwide.

The article describes tankers using Hormuz while relying increasingly on U.S. escorts and complex ship-to-ship transfers. Producers are also moving oil through alternative pipelines and ports. These workarounds help maintain exports, but they require more vessels, time, and coordination.

Hormuz remains important because bypassing it is costly and difficult. September exports averaged about 16.5 million barrels per day, while Brent crude stayed near $100 per barrel. If the route becomes harder to use, shipping costs and supply risks could rise further, even when oil continues moving.

What exactly does Kpler suspect Gulf producers are paying Iran to do?

Kpler suspects that certain Gulf countries may have quietly reached arrangements with Iran to keep their oil exports moving. In practical terms, the alleged arrangement would involve paying Iran a toll for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The payments could help ships avoid attacks or interference.

Michelle Brohard of Kpler suggested that some countries might pay Iran 10% or 20% of their cargo. She also said exporters may be rushing to move as much oil as possible before the conflict resumes. Such payments would effectively add a hidden cost to every shipment.

The claim remains unconfirmed. Gulf states have opposed Iranian transit charges, and Washington has warned Tehran against imposing them. If the payments exist, exporters could pass the cost to buyers, helping explain why oil prices remain high despite recovering export volumes.

How much oil is moving through the region, and how does that compare with pre-war levels?

Kpler estimates that Middle East crude and condensate exports averaged about 16.5 million barrels per day in September. This figure shows that large volumes were still leaving the region despite shipping difficulties. It also provides a measure of how much trade had recovered.

The September average remained below the pre-war level of 18 million barrels per day. However, exports exceeded that pre-war average on several days during the final week of the month. Daily surges therefore looked stronger than the monthly average.

The difference matters because restored export volumes did not bring oil prices back down. Brent crude continued trading around $100 per barrel, nearly $30 above its pre-war price. Higher freight costs, security risks, and possible tolls may be offsetting the effect of increased supply.

What evidence is mentioned for secret toll payments, and why do the claims remain unverified?

The article cites several indications of possible secret tolls. Michelle Brohard of Kpler said she suspected ships were paying for safe passage. Chris Beauchamp of IG Group separately described U.S. convoying and possible Iranian toll collection as developments occurring under the radar.

Another clue is a U.S. Treasury action against Iranian cryptocurrency exchange BitBank. OFAC said the Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority had used it to transfer payments to Iran’s regime. Treasury linked the exchange to financier Babak Zanjani and said hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin reached the IRGC’s network.

These details do not directly prove that Gulf exporters paid transit tolls. Brohard’s claims remain unverified, and the article identifies no public contracts, payment records, or official admissions. The payment system may indicate related financial activity, but its exact purpose and connection to vessel passage remain uncertain.

How are U.S. escorts, alternative pipelines and ports, and ship-to-ship transfers helping tankers move oil?

U.S. military escorts can protect tankers traveling through Hormuz, reducing the risk of attack or interference. Producers can also divert crude through alternative pipelines and ports. These routes lessen dependence on the main strait, although they may have lower capacity or involve longer journeys.

Tankers are increasingly using ship-to-ship transfers, sometimes through vessel-intensive shuttle chains. Cargo can be moved between ships at sea, allowing operators to reorganize voyages, avoid exposed routes, or connect with alternate destinations. The method offers flexibility but adds operational complexity.

These measures help preserve oil exports despite the conflict. They do not make shipping normal. Beauchamp said the Gulf shuttle system is getting oil out but requires many ships. That demand has pushed freight rates higher and reduced vessel availability for other regions, tightening global shipping capacity.

What happens to oil prices, freight costs, and global supply when shipping through Hormuz becomes more difficult or expensive?

When Hormuz shipping becomes more difficult, oil can still move, but it becomes slower, riskier, and more expensive. Tankers may need escorts, longer routes, alternative ports, or several ship-to-ship transfers. Each workaround adds costs that can influence the price paid by consumers.

The article gives a clear example. Brent crude was still around $100 per barrel, nearly $30 above its pre-war level, even as Middle East exports recovered. Beauchamp said the Gulf shuttle system had pushed freight rates higher because it required many ships. That reduced available shipping capacity beyond the region.

The result is pressure on both energy and transport markets. Buyers may pay more for crude, while exporters face higher delivery expenses and possible tolls. If shipping problems persist, global supply can become tighter and prices may remain elevated, even without a complete export shutdown.

What are transit-passage rights under UNCLOS, and why might Iran's non-ratification and domestic maritime laws complicate the legality of tolls?

Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, transit passage lets ships and aircraft move through straits used for international navigation. Bordering states generally cannot impose charges simply because vessels are passing through. This rule supports predictable global trade.

Iran signed UNCLOS in 1982 but never ratified it. It has also maintained that its territorial waters are governed partly by domestic rules, including the 1993 Marine Areas Act. Tehran has considered legislation creating fees for ships using Hormuz, arguing that guaranteed safe passage could justify charges in a long-term reopening agreement.

This creates a legal dispute rather than a settled right to collect tolls. UNCLOS principles weigh against simple transit fees, while Iran may rely on its non-ratification and domestic law. The article says any Iranian toll system would therefore face a major legal challenge, alongside strong political opposition.

Key Facts:

📌 Hormuz connects Gulf oil producers with international shipping routes.

📌 Disruptions can affect global oil prices.

📌 Workarounds require more ships, time, and coordination.

📌 Kpler suspects secret payments could buy safe passage.

📌 Possible charges equal 10% to 20% of cargo.

📌 The alleged tolls remain unverified.

📌 September exports averaged roughly 16.5 million barrels per day.