Leaked Russian Blueprint Counts 1,000 Weapons to Freeze Ukraine

What does the leaked document claim Russia was calculating?

The leaked file reportedly calculates a possible weapons campaign against Ukraine’s electricity, heating, water and sewage systems. Its purpose appears to be estimating the force needed to disrupt critical infrastructure across major cities. Experts told Schemes that it could support weapons-production requests or present an operation’s overall concept.

The document lists about 60 targets and assigns weapons to different facilities. For example, it estimates three Kinzhal missiles for each combined heat and power facility and 20 drones for each boiler house. It also considers attacks on substations, hydroelectric plants, nuclear-grid connections, water-treatment facilities and pumping stations.

The calculations are not a confirmed order to attack. The file has missing pages, altered metadata and unidentified authors. Energy Research Center Director Oleksandr Kharchenko called it an analytical presentation, while another Ukrainian defense-industry source said a real operational plan would specify timing and weapon distribution.

What is a combined heat and power plant, and why is it important to a city?

A combined heat and power plant, often called a CHP plant, makes electricity while also capturing and using heat produced during generation. Instead of treating that heat as waste, the facility can send it through a district-heating network. This makes one site valuable for two essential urban services.

In the document, combined heat and power facilities are listed among the priority targets. The calculations reportedly assign up to 25 drones, three Kinzhal missiles, about 25 FAB-500 guided bombs or five Iskander-M missiles to each facility. Damage could therefore affect both electrical supply and heating capacity.

The article does not quantify how many homes each plant serves. It does state that Russia’s reported wider objective would be to deprive Ukrainian cities of electricity, heating and water. Because CHP plants combine two functions, disabling them could increase pressure on urban services, especially during cold conditions.

How many targets and weapons does the document reportedly identify?

The reported scale is national rather than limited to one city. The file identifies approximately 60 critical targets across electricity generation and distribution, water supplies, sewage systems and heating. It then estimates the weapons needed to disable those facilities as part of a wider campaign.

Its overall calculation is roughly 1,000 weapons. That total includes up to 770 drones and drone-missiles, 170 guided aerial bombs and 75 Kinzhal and Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Target types include power plants, substations, interconnectors, boiler houses, water-treatment facilities and pumping stations.

These figures describe an analytical estimate, not a confirmed operation. The article says the file’s authors are unidentified, some pages are missing and its metadata was altered. Ukrainian experts said the calculations might support weapons-production requests, while an actual attack plan would need to set out timing and allocation.

Why are Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa described as the main target cities?

The document identifies Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa as the main target cities in its reported infrastructure campaign. These cities receive particular attention because the calculations focus on key electricity facilities serving them. The stated aim would be to create broad disruption rather than damage only one plant.

For Kyiv, the file highlights five substations forming part of the city’s “Kyiv ring” as possible weak points. It says that disabling 12 key substations serving Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa could halt as much as 90 percent of their electricity supply. The estimate assigns 40–50 Molniya drones and 130–140 Geran-4 or Dan-T/Banderol weapons.

The article also lists many other priority cities, including Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Lviv. Kyiv receives special attention because the document describes its extensive network while identifying specific substations as potential vulnerabilities. The figures remain estimates, not evidence of an issued attack order.

What could happen to electricity, heating and water supplies if key energy facilities were disabled?

The reported campaign would target interconnected urban services, not electricity alone. The document names four priority sectors: electricity generation and distribution, water supplies, sewage systems and heating. Damage across these systems could leave cities without normal power, warmth, clean-water processing or wastewater services.

The proposed sequence reportedly begins with attacks on electricity interconnectors, followed by major hydroelectric plants and grid connections for three nuclear power plants. The document also identifies substations, boiler houses, water-treatment facilities and pumping stations. It estimates that 12 substations serving Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa could halt up to 90 percent of their electricity supply.

The New York Times previously reported that Moscow’s apparent objective was a humanitarian emergency. The article does not state that the plan was approved or carried out. It says the document is an analytical estimate, and experts described any real attack plan as a separate document with timing and weapon assignments.

How does Ukraine’s connection to European electricity networks affect its ability to cope with attacks on domestic power facilities?

Connections to European electricity networks give Ukraine a way to import power when domestic generation or grid equipment is damaged. That can help reduce the effect of attacks on Ukrainian plants and substations. The article specifically mentions interconnectors through which Ukraine imports electricity from Europe.

The reported campaign would begin with attacks on those interconnectors. The document then proposes targeting major hydroelectric plants and equipment connecting the South Ukraine, Rivne and Khmelnytskyi nuclear plants to the national grid. This sequence suggests an effort to cut both domestic generation links and external imports.

The article does not quantify how much electricity Europe could supply or how long imports could continue. It also does not state that the interconnectors were attacked under this plan. It does show why the connections matter: they provide an alternative route for electricity, while also appearing among the infrastructure the document reportedly considers vulnerable.

How do electricity generation, transmission and distribution work together to deliver power to homes and businesses?

Electricity delivery has three connected stages. Generation produces power at facilities such as hydroelectric, thermal, nuclear and combined heat and power plants. Transmission then moves large amounts across the national grid, often over long distances. Distribution networks finally carry electricity from substations to homes, businesses and other users.

The article’s targets span this whole chain. It mentions power plants as generators, interconnectors and nuclear-plant grid equipment as transmission links, and substations as facilities that help route power into local networks. It says that disabling 12 key substations serving Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa could halt as much as 90 percent of their electricity supply.

This structure explains why attacks on different facilities can have wider effects than damage at one site. If generation falls, less power enters the grid. If transmission links or substations fail, available electricity may not reach cities. The article presents these effects as calculations, not confirmed outcomes.

Key Facts:

📌 The document reportedly estimates weapons needed against about 60 Ukrainian infrastructure targets.

📌 It calculates roughly 1,000 weapons, including drones, bombs and ballistic missiles.

📌 Experts described it as an analytical estimate, not a confirmed attack order.

📌 CHP plants generate electricity and provide useful heat through one facility.

📌 Each combined heat and power facility could require 25 drones or three Kinzhals.

📌 The document lists CHP facilities among four priority infrastructure sectors.

📌 The document reportedly lists approximately 60 critical targets.