Brace for more heat: Worst of El Niño yet to come, peak likely in December

When is this El Niño expected to peak, and how long is it likely to last?

The ongoing El Niño is forecast to reach its strongest point during the October–December period, with December identified as the likely peak. El Niño is an ocean-atmosphere climate pattern, so its effects can continue after ocean temperatures reach their highest level.

The World Meteorological Organization forecasts an almost 100 per cent chance that the event will remain in place through February 2027. Its effects include shifts in normal rainfall patterns and unusually high temperatures across large parts of the world.

The event is also expected to extend into the northern hemisphere’s spring of 2027. The WMO warns that it could become one of the strongest El Niño events since at least 1950, raising the risk of droughts and floods in different regions.

What is El Niño, and how does it differ from the other phases of ENSO?

El Niño is a climate pattern marked by unusually warm waters in the equatorial and central Pacific Ocean. Those ocean changes affect the atmosphere and disrupt weather around the world, making El Niño important far beyond the Pacific region.

It is one of three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. The warm phase is El Niño, the cool phase is La Niña, and the third phase is neutral. The article describes ENSO as a naturally occurring ocean-atmospheric phenomenon.

The current event is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. Unlike neutral conditions, it has warmer-than-normal Pacific waters; unlike La Niña, it is associated with the warm phase. The WMO links El Niño with higher temperatures and altered rainfall, including drought risks in India and elsewhere.

How unusually warm are the Pacific Ocean waters in this event, and what temperature increase is needed for El Niño to be declared?

In August, sea temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region were 2.5°C above normal. This region helps determine which phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation is occurring, so the measurement signals an unusually strong warm event.

The threshold for declaring El Niño is much lower. It is declared when sea temperatures along the equatorial and central Pacific Ocean are more than 0.5°C above normal. The current August reading was therefore five times that threshold, based on the figures given in the article.

The WMO says Pacific sea temperatures have risen dramatically in recent months, reflecting a rapidly intensifying event. The unusually warm water matters because El Niño can push global temperatures above average and shift normal rainfall patterns, increasing risks of droughts and floods.

What happens to global temperatures and rainfall patterns when El Niño strengthens?

When El Niño strengthens, unusually warm Pacific waters influence the atmosphere and disrupt global weather. The WMO warns that large parts of the world will experience above-average temperatures in the coming months.

Rainfall patterns also shift from their usual locations and amounts. That change can leave some regions much drier, causing drought, while others receive excessive rain and face flooding. The article identifies both hazards because El Niño does not affect every region in the same way.

India illustrates the dry side of the pattern. El Niño affected rainfall during the second half of the 2026 monsoon, which ended with a 13 per cent deficit. Europe illustrates the heat signal: France, Spain, and the UK experienced record-breaking temperatures during an exceptionally hot summer.

How has El Niño already affected India’s monsoon, drought conditions, and water supplies?

El Niño affected India’s rainfall during the second half of the 2026 southwest monsoon. The season ended with a 13 per cent rainfall deficit, making it the fourth driest monsoon since 2001.

The reduced rainfall contributed to serious water stress. Many states, including Maharashtra and Karnataka, declared drought conditions. Maharashtra also imposed a 10 per cent water cut in many of its districts, showing how weak rainfall affected water supplies and public management.

These impacts fit the WMO’s warning that El Niño can suppress rainfall over India. The event is still strengthening and is expected to last into 2027, so altered rainfall and continuing water pressure remain concerns. The article does not provide a separate forecast for India’s next monsoon.

How often does ENSO occur, and what have previous El Niño events typically done to weather around the world?

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a naturally occurring ocean-atmospheric phenomenon that recurs once every two to seven years. It moves through warm El Niño, neutral, and cool La Niña phases, rather than following one fixed pattern each time.

The article describes El Niño’s usual effects as a rise in temperatures and suppressed rainfall over India and many other places. It also says the pattern disrupts global weather, shifting normal rainfall and creating the possibility of droughts in some areas and floods in others.

Recent examples show these broad effects. India’s 2026 monsoon ended 13 per cent below normal, while Europe experienced one of its hottest summers, with major rivers including the Danube, Rhine, and Thames left dry. The current event may be among the strongest since at least 1950.

How can warming ocean water in the equatorial Pacific disrupt winds, rainfall, and temperatures across distant continents?

Warm water in the equatorial Pacific adds heat to the ocean-atmosphere system. Because the atmosphere and ocean interact across a connected climate system, this regional change can alter weather patterns far beyond the Pacific.

The article explains the outcome more clearly than the detailed process: El Niño disrupts global weather, shifts normal rainfall patterns, and pushes temperatures above average. Established climate science describes these effects as changes in atmospheric circulation, including winds that carry heat and moisture between regions. The article itself does not specify those wind pathways.

The current event shows the distant consequences. India experienced a deficient monsoon, while Europe saw record-breaking summer heat and dry major rivers. As El Niño strengthens through early 2027, the WMO expects continued abnormal temperatures and greater risks of droughts and floods.

Key Facts:

📌 El Niño is expected to peak during October–December, likely in December.

📌 The WMO forecasts near-100 per cent persistence through February 2027.

📌 The event may continue into the northern hemisphere’s spring of 2027.

📌 El Niño is ENSO’s warm phase.

📌 La Niña is ENSO’s cool phase.

📌 Neutral is the third ENSO phase.

📌 Niño 3.4 temperatures were 2.5°C above normal in August.