Monsoon withdrawal advances as India records one of its weakest seasons in decades

What does the withdrawal of the south-west monsoon mean, and which parts of India has it already left?

Withdrawal means the south-west monsoon is retreating from areas it previously affected. It is a seasonal shift, not an instant stop to rainfall. The IMD says conditions are favourable for withdrawal from more parts of India within three to four days.

The monsoon has already left the remaining areas of Maharashtra, parts of Goa, Karnataka, Telangana and Odisha. It has also withdrawn from additional areas of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. Withdrawal is progressing across the northern peninsula as well.

The next phase is expected to cover more of eastern India, the northern peninsula and large parts of north-east India. The usual path begins in western Rajasthan in September, then moves across northwest and central India toward the southern peninsula and eastern regions. Rainfall will continue in several places during this retreat.

How weak was India’s 2026 monsoon compared with normal, and which regions received the least rainfall?

India’s 2026 south-west monsoon rainfall was 87% of the long-period average, or LPA. It produced 759.4 mm between June and September. The IMD ranked it as the fourth-lowest monsoon since 2001 and the 13th-lowest since 1901.

Rainfall was below normal in most regions. Northeast India recorded the lowest regional share, at 74% of its LPA. South Peninsular India received 76%, or 542.0 mm, making it that region’s fourth-lowest monsoon since 1901 and second-lowest since 2001.

North-western India received 94.1% of average, while Central India had near-normal rainfall at 97%. The weak national total matters because the monsoon supplies about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and supports farming, reservoirs and rural livelihoods.

Why can rainfall continue in parts of India even after the south-west monsoon begins to withdraw?

The south-west monsoon can begin withdrawing from one region while rain-bearing conditions remain elsewhere. Withdrawal describes the retreat of the main seasonal current, not the immediate disappearance of clouds, moisture or local weather systems. That is why rain can continue after the retreat starts.

The article gives several examples. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim were forecast to receive widespread rain on 9 October. Bihar could receive rain during 9-11 October, while Odisha could see rain through 14 October. Rain was also expected across parts of the north-east.

Southern India shows the same pattern. Rainfall was expected over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, including isolated heavy rain over south interior Karnataka on 9 October. The seasonal shift toward the northeast monsoon is therefore underway, but active rain remains possible across eastern, northeastern and southern India.

What effects can a below-normal monsoon have on crops, reservoirs, food supplies and the rural economy?

A weak monsoon can affect India well beyond the weather season. Less rain may reduce soil moisture for crops and limit water flowing into reservoirs. That can make farming more dependent on stored water or irrigation. The article identifies farm output, reservoir levels and the rural economy as especially important areas.

The 2026 monsoon illustrates the risk. Rainfall reached only 87% of the long-period average, with 759.4 mm recorded from June to September. South Peninsular India received 76% of its average, while Northeast India received 74%. Such regional shortfalls can create uneven pressure on farms and water supplies.

Lower farm output can affect food availability, crop incomes and related rural activity. Reservoir shortages can constrain later water use. The article does not quantify these effects for 2026, but the weak rainfall and the monsoon’s importance point to continuing concerns for agriculture, food supplies and rural livelihoods.

What is El Niño, and how can warming in the equatorial Pacific affect India’s monsoon?

El Niño is a climate pattern involving unusually warm ocean temperatures across parts of the equatorial Pacific. That warming changes atmospheric circulation and can influence rainfall far beyond the Pacific. Its effects are global, but the strength and timing of impacts differ between years.

For India, El Niño can weaken or disrupt the south-west monsoon by altering the circulation that helps carry moisture toward the subcontinent. This is established climate science; the article itself reports developing El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific and says they are expected to intensify through year-end.

The article links those developing conditions with a weak 2026 monsoon, which delivered 87% of the long-period average. However, El Niño is not the only possible influence on rainfall, and the article does not establish a measured cause-and-effect share. Its warning is that Pacific warming may remain an important background risk.

What is the northeast monsoon, and how is it different from the south-west monsoon?

The northeast monsoon is the seasonal phase that follows the south-west monsoon’s retreat. It develops as wind patterns reverse during the cooler part of the year. This answer uses established meteorological knowledge; the article only states that the withdrawal marks a shift toward the northeast monsoon.

The two systems differ in timing, wind direction and main rainfall areas. The south-west monsoon operates mainly from June to September and brings most of India’s annual rainfall. The northeast monsoon generally follows it and is especially important for southeastern and parts of southern India, including Tamil Nadu.

The transition is already visible in the article. The south-west current has withdrawn from parts of Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka and Telangana, while rain is still forecast over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Thus, retreat and continuing rain can overlap as one seasonal pattern gives way to another.

How does the south-west monsoon form and move across India during the June-to-September season?

The south-west monsoon is the seasonal rain system that dominates India from June through September. In basic meteorology, it forms when seasonal heating changes pressure and draws moisture-laden winds toward the subcontinent. This established explanation adds context beyond the article’s brief description of its movement.

The current spreads across India and supplies about 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. The article describes its withdrawal route: it typically begins in western Rajasthan in September, then moves across northwest and central India toward the southern peninsula and eastern regions. The retreat is gradual rather than simultaneous.

In 2026, the system had already withdrawn from parts of Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. The IMD expected further withdrawal from eastern India, the northern peninsula and much of the north-east within three to four days, while rain continued in several areas.

Key Facts:

📌 The IMD expects withdrawal from more areas within three to four days.

📌 The monsoon has retreated from parts of Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka and Telangana.

📌 Withdrawal does not immediately end rainfall.

📌 India received 87% of long-period average rainfall in 2026.

📌 Northeast India recorded 74% of its long-period average.

📌 South Peninsular India received 542.0 mm of rainfall.

📌 Withdrawal does not mean rainfall ends immediately.