Deutsche Bank survey: Rates, inflation and AI emerge as global growth risks

What did the Deutsche Bank survey identify as the biggest risks to global economic growth?

The survey found that financial conditions were the leading concern for global growth. Rates and yields were selected by 37% of respondents. Inflation followed at 23%. Artificial-intelligence risks came next, at 17%. Together, the results show that investors are watching both traditional economic pressures and newer technology-related uncertainty.

Rates and yields affect how expensive it is to borrow and how attractive bonds can be. Inflation reduces purchasing power and can pressure central banks to keep interest rates high. AI can influence productivity, company competition, employment and investment expectations. These concerns operate through different channels, but all can affect economic confidence.

The findings came from around 200 family offices and wealthy individuals at Deutsche Bank’s Emerging Markets Family Office Forum 2026 in Singapore. The survey highlights a cautious outlook shaped by elevated borrowing costs, inflation concerns and rapid technological change. Investors are balancing immediate economic risks against longer-term opportunities.

How large were the differences between respondents choosing rates and yields, inflation, and artificial-intelligence risks?

The survey’s three leading risks were separated by clear but not overwhelming margins. Rates and yields received 37% of responses. Inflation received 23%, producing a 14-percentage-point gap. Artificial-intelligence risks received 17%, placing them 20 points behind rates and yields and six points behind inflation.

These differences show that financial conditions remained the strongest single concern among respondents. However, inflation and AI were still significant. The results do not represent a majority view for any one risk. Instead, they show a spread of concern across borrowing costs, price pressures and technological change.

The poll was conducted among around 200 family offices and wealthy individuals attending Deutsche Bank’s Emerging Markets Family Office Forum 2026 in Singapore. Its ranking suggests that investors were focused primarily on established macroeconomic risks, while also paying attention to the possible economic effects of artificial intelligence.

What are interest rates and bond yields, and why can rising borrowing costs threaten economic growth?

Interest rates are the cost charged for borrowing money, or the return earned by lending it. Bond yields are the returns investors receive from holding bonds, expressed relative to their prices and payments. These measures influence mortgages, business loans, government financing and investment decisions. That is why rates and yields matter beyond financial markets.

When borrowing costs rise, households may delay purchases and businesses may postpone expansion. Governments can also face higher financing costs. Higher bond yields can make bonds more attractive compared with riskier investments, changing where capital flows. These effects can reduce spending and investment, two important parts of economic activity.

The Deutsche Bank poll identified rates and yields as the biggest growth risk, with 37% of respondents choosing them. The article also describes elevated borrowing costs as part of the challenge facing investors. If costs remain high, businesses and households may stay cautious, while investors reassess expected returns and risks.

Why might investors see Asia as geopolitically stable while still choosing the United States for more of their investment capital?

Geopolitical stability and investment allocation measure different things. Stability concerns the expected political and regional environment. Allocation concerns where investors choose to place additional capital. A region can therefore be viewed as relatively stable without receiving the largest increase in investment. The article describes this as a balancing act between stability and investment opportunities.

In the poll, 73% of respondents expected Asia to remain the most stable region over the next 12 months. Yet 54% planned to increase investments in the United States. Asia ranked second for additional capital allocation, at 30%. This contrast shows that respondents did not use one measure as a direct substitute for the other.

The findings point to a two-track approach. Investors may value Asia’s expected geopolitical stability while directing more capital to the United States. The article links this balancing act to elevated borrowing costs, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change. Allocation preferences may therefore remain distinct from stability preferences.

How much additional investment did respondents plan to direct to the United States, Asia, and the UK and Europe over the next 12 months?

The poll showed a strong preference for increasing investment in the United States. About 54% of respondents said they planned to raise U.S. investments during the next 12 months. Asia followed at 30%, while 11% expected to increase allocations to the UK and Europe. These figures describe intended increases, not total portfolios or guaranteed outcomes.

The gap between the United States and Asia was 24 percentage points. The United States also led the UK and Europe by 43 points. Asia’s figure was 19 points above the UK and Europe. The results show that respondents separated their preferred destination for additional capital from their expectations about geopolitical stability.

The article presents these choices as part of a wider balancing act. Investors were seeking both stability and opportunities while facing elevated borrowing costs, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change. Singapore’s role as a major global wealth centre also formed part of the background to the survey.

What is inflation, and how does persistent inflation affect households, businesses, interest rates, and investment decisions?

Inflation means that prices for goods and services rise broadly over time. As prices increase, each unit of money buys less. Households may need to spend more on essentials or reduce other purchases. Businesses can face higher wages, materials and operating costs. Persistent inflation can therefore weaken household budgets and squeeze company profits.

Central banks often respond to persistent inflation by raising or maintaining interest rates. That can make borrowing more expensive for households, businesses and governments. Investors may then reassess bonds, shares and other assets because future costs, earnings and interest payments become less predictable. Inflation can also make cash lose purchasing power over time.

The Deutsche Bank survey found inflation was the second-biggest growth risk, cited by 23% of respondents. The article places it alongside elevated borrowing costs and rapid technological change. If inflation remains persistent, investors may continue seeking risk-management strategies and markets that combine stability with investment opportunities.

Why can artificial intelligence create both economic growth opportunities and risks for investors and the wider economy?

Artificial intelligence can create economic opportunities by helping businesses perform tasks more quickly, develop products and improve productivity. Companies that use it effectively may gain advantages, which can attract investment. New technologies can also create demand for services, infrastructure and skills connected with AI. These possibilities explain why investors may view AI as a source of growth.

The risks arise when technology changes competition, employment or company valuations faster than businesses and markets can adjust. Some firms may lose advantages, while investors may overestimate future profits. Rapid adoption can also increase uncertainty about costs, regulation and how economic benefits are distributed. These risks can affect companies, workers and the wider economy.

In the Deutsche Bank poll, 17% of respondents viewed AI-linked risks as the biggest threat to global growth. That placed AI behind rates and yields at 37% and inflation at 23%. The result shows that investors recognize both opportunity and uncertainty as technological change accelerates.

Key Facts:

📌 Rates and yields were the biggest risk, chosen by 37% of respondents.

📌 Inflation ranked second, cited by 23% of respondents.

📌 Artificial-intelligence risks ranked third, at 17%.

📌 Rates and yields led inflation by 14 percentage points.

📌 Rates and yields led AI risks by 20 percentage points.

📌 Inflation led AI risks by 6 percentage points.

📌 Interest rates measure the cost of borrowing money.