Ethiopia: Tigray Faces a Double Catastrophe - War and Worsening Hunger

What is happening in Tigray now, and why is it described as a double catastrophe?

Tigray is experiencing two emergencies at once: armed conflict has resumed, while drought and crop failure threaten food supplies. The crises reinforce each other. War damages communities and blocks relief, while hunger makes civilians less able to survive displacement and renewed violence.

The agricultural shock is already severe. More than 252,500 hectares of crops have been scorched, and over 3.5 million livestock face starvation and disease. At least 3.9 million people needed immediate food assistance in September. Fighting then cut telecommunications, disrupted banking and fuel supplies, and stopped humanitarian operations.

Airstrikes also hit schools, displaced-person sites, and a food aid convoy. For 10 days, Mekelle was isolated from the outside world. With aid transport unsafe and payment systems paralysed, food and medical supplies could not move normally. The article warns that famine risk is growing as coping resources run out.

How many people, hectares of farmland, and livestock are affected by the crop failure and food crisis?

The scale of the crisis reaches people, farmland, and animals simultaneously. A September humanitarian overview reported that 3.9 million people, more than half of Tigray’s population, required immediate emergency food assistance. This followed a failed September harvest and collapsing livestock-to-grain terms of trade.

Crop losses covered more than 252,500 hectares of planted land. The same assessments found 140 districts facing catastrophic conditions. Seasonal pastures and water tables were disappearing, leaving more than 3.5 million head of livestock exposed to starvation and disease.

These figures describe connected damage rather than separate problems. Failed crops reduce household food and income. Dying or weakened livestock remove another source of food and wealth. With the population already affected by war, displacement, and drought, the article reports increasing nervousness about possible famine. Continued rainfall is needed even for minimal production.

What were the main unresolved problems left by the 2022 peace agreement?

The peace agreement silenced major fighting but left the foundations of civilian life unresolved. International mediators celebrated the end of open war while persistent territorial occupation, structural collapse, and deprivation continued. The result was an unstable peace rather than a secure recovery.

Hundreds of thousands of people displaced from western Tigray still could not return home. An estimated 44% of the region’s prime cultivable land remained inaccessible. Farmers who returned to northern, central, and eastern zones found farms and communities devastated. Rebuilding also lacked a reliable safety net.

Recovery was further weakened by reduced international food aid, federal shortages of cash and fuel, and limited agricultural and medical supplies. These problems mattered because families were expected to rebuild livelihoods while land, services, and resources remained unavailable. The later drought and renewed fighting therefore struck a population that had never fully recovered from the previous war.

How did failed rains, drought, and the El Niño weather pattern damage crops, livestock, and water supplies?

Tigray’s agricultural recovery was hit by badly timed and insufficient rainfall. The early Azmera rains, normally expected from April through late May, stopped almost a month early. This disrupted seed germination and caused long-cycle cereals to wither in the soil across multiple municipalities.

The El Niño weather pattern added another shock. Tsidia Spring harvest rains arrived more than five weeks late across eastern and southern zones. Some areas then endured dry spells lasting over a month. More than 252,500 hectares of planted crops were scorched, while seasonal pastures and water tables disappeared.

The consequences spread beyond fields. Failed harvests reduced household food and income. Vanishing pasture and water left more than 3.5 million livestock vulnerable to starvation and disease. The September harvest failed, and livestock became less valuable against grain. With the 2020–2023 drought already weakening households, the article reports rising concern about famine.

How do renewed fighting, airstrikes, telecoms shutdowns, and blocked roads prevent food and medical aid from reaching people?

Conflict prevents aid by disrupting every link in the supply chain. Fighting closed or endangered transport routes, while coalition forces took control of airports in Mekelle, Shire, and Axum. Telecommunications were cut across Mekelle and surrounding areas, isolating the regional coordination centre.

The mechanism was practical as well as military. A pre-existing currency shortage had pushed the local economy onto mobile financial networks. When telecoms failed, aid agencies could not reliably pay people to load, unload, or drive trucks. Fuel shortages created another barrier. A drone strike on a food convoy also made transport too risky.

For 10 days, Mekelle was cut off from the outside world, and humanitarian operations across Tigray largely stopped. Medical supplies were already scarce, and food deliveries could not proceed normally. Without assurances that aid would be protected, continued fighting could deepen hunger and increase the risk of famine.

What is famine, and how can war, crop failure, and collapsing household resources combine to cause it?

Famine is an extreme condition in which people lack enough food to survive, while hunger, malnutrition, disease, and deaths become widespread. It usually develops when food availability and people’s ability to obtain food fail together. War can make that failure faster by destroying livelihoods and blocking relief.

In Tigray, crops failed after disrupted rains, while livestock lost pasture and water. War had already exhausted many households’ ability to cope through scorched-earth tactics, displacement, and the lingering 2020–2023 drought. Renewed fighting then interrupted food deliveries and medical support.

The mechanism is cumulative. Families lose harvests, income, animals, land access, and savings. Aid cannot easily replace those resources when airports, telecommunications, fuel, cash systems, and transport are disrupted. The article reports that 3.9 million people needed emergency food assistance and warns of increasing nervousness over potential famine. Continued rainfall and protected aid access are critical to preventing conditions from worsening.

Why are displaced people, farmers without land, and communities dependent on humanitarian supply chains especially vulnerable when conflict and drought occur together?

Displaced people, farmers without usable land, and aid-dependent communities are especially exposed because they cannot rely on normal livelihoods. Displacement removes access to homes, farms, livestock, and local support. Farmers who return may find their land inaccessible or their communities destroyed. Aid-dependent families have fewer private reserves when deliveries stop.

The article describes hundreds of thousands displaced from western Tigray, with 44% of prime cultivable land inaccessible. Returning farmers found devastation. IDP hosting sites were also hit by airstrikes, including one in Sheraro. At the same time, crop failure and disappearing pasture reduced local food production.

Conflict and drought therefore remove both alternatives: people cannot produce enough food locally, and they cannot safely receive enough from elsewhere. Telecoms outages paralyse payments and coordination. Fuel shortages and attacks on convoys halt transport. For households whose coping capacity was already exhausted, even a short interruption can sharply worsen hunger and disease risks.

Key Facts:

📌 Tigray faces renewed conflict alongside a drought-driven food crisis.

📌 More than 3.9 million people needed immediate food assistance.

📌 Fighting and communications outages halted humanitarian operations.

📌 3.9 million people required immediate emergency food assistance.

📌 More than 252,500 hectares of planted crops were scorched.

📌 Over 3.5 million livestock faced starvation and disease.

📌 Hundreds of thousands remained displaced from western Tigray.