Support for Israeli far right surges among first-time voters, poll finds

What does the poll suggest about support for Israel’s far-right parties among first-time voters?

The poll suggests that Israel’s far-right parties have become some of the strongest choices among voters aged 18 to 22. This matters because around 500,000 new voters may be eligible in the upcoming election. Their preferences could influence the balance between parties and the shape of the next government.

Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit received 8.88 percent, while Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist alliance received 8.09 percent. Together, they were projected to win 29 Knesset seats. That exceeded Likud’s projected 14 seats and placed both parties near the top of the poll.

The result points to a notable generational shift in the poll, though it reflects voting intentions rather than actual ballots. Ynet’s interviews linked support to settlement expansion, tougher treatment of Palestinian prisoners, and territorial claims. A new far-right party led by Ofer Winter also pushed the broader far-right total above 19 percent, although it remained below the electoral threshold.

What are the Knesset and the electoral threshold, and why do they matter for which parties enter parliament?

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament, where elected parties receive seats according to their share of the vote. The electoral threshold is the minimum percentage of votes a party must secure to enter the Knesset. These rules matter because votes for a party below the threshold do not translate into parliamentary seats.

The article gives a clear example. Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael is projected to attract support from first-time voters, but it remains below the electoral threshold. As a result, its votes would not currently produce Knesset representation, unlike the larger parties led by Ben Gvir and Smotrich.

This system can shape both election results and coalition negotiations. A party that crosses the threshold can gain lawmakers and become relevant to forming a government. The article notes that Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s parties won 14 seats together in 2022, helping pave the way for the most right-wing government in Israel’s history.

How much support and how many projected Knesset seats did Itamar Ben Gvir’s and Bezalel Smotrich’s parties receive together in the poll?

The poll gave the two main far-right parties a combined 16.97 percent among first-time voters. Their projected total was 29 Knesset seats. This makes their combined performance one of the most significant findings in the survey and shows how strongly they are positioned among voters aged 18 to 22.

Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, received 8.88 percent and was projected to win 15 seats. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist alliance received 8.09 percent and was projected to win 14 seats. Adding the two results produces the combined figure.

Their 29-seat projection exceeded Likud’s 14 projected seats among first-time voters. It also came close to, or exceeded, the projected results of other major contenders, including Naftali Bennett’s Together alliance and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. The figures concern voting intentions, not a final election result.

How large is the group of new voters expected to be eligible to vote in the upcoming election?

Israel’s Central Elections Committee estimates that around 500,000 new voters will be eligible to cast ballots in the upcoming election. This is a substantial pool of first-time voters whose choices could affect party standings and coalition possibilities. The poll specifically measures this age group’s voting intentions.

The survey covered 543 Israeli voters aged 18 to 22. Within that sample, Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist alliance ranked among the strongest choices. They were projected to win 29 Knesset seats together, ahead of Likud’s projected 14 seats among first-time voters.

The size of the new-voter group gives the poll broader political importance, but the article does not say how many of these eligible voters will actually vote. It also does not establish that the poll’s results will match the election outcome. The upcoming vote is scheduled for 27 October, according to the article.

What policies and issues appear to be attracting some young voters to the far right, including settlements, Palestinian prisoners, and territorial expansion?

The interviews suggest that some young voters support the far right because of its positions on settlements, Palestinian prisoners, and territorial expansion. These issues matter because they connect political promises with security, religious belief, and Israel’s control over disputed areas. The appeal is not presented as uniform among all young voters.

One young settler praised Smotrich for helping establish farms and hilltop outposts in the occupied West Bank. He also expressed frustration that Israel had not established settlements in the Gaza Strip after the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023. He described the land between the Jordan River and Mediterranean Sea as a historical and divine inheritance.

Another young voter considered Ben Gvir’s party because of tougher prison conditions for Palestinians and the death penalty. The article says Ben Gvir sponsored a law allowing execution only for Palestinians convicted of deadly assaults. A different voter criticized the government’s violence and lack of a long-term political solution.

How did the far-right parties’ projected support among first-time voters compare with their combined result in the 2022 election?

The comparison indicates a much stronger projected position among first-time voters than the two parties achieved in the 2022 election. Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and Smotrich’s Religious Zionist alliance won 14 Knesset seats together in 2022. In the new poll, those same two parties are projected to win 29 seats among first-time voters.

The poll also measures the wider far-right bloc. Otzma Yehudit, the Religious Zionist alliance, and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael together receive more than 19 percent of first-time voters’ support. However, Amcha Yisrael remains below the electoral threshold, so its projected support does not currently translate into seats.

The figures are not perfectly equivalent because the 2022 result covers the entire electorate, while the new projection covers first-time voters. Still, the difference suggests stronger support among young voters in this poll. In 2022, the two parties’ combined result helped pave the way for Israel’s most right-wing government.

If these parties gain more seats, how could that affect the formation and policies of Israel’s governing coalition?

In Israel’s parliamentary system, parties that win seats can become important to forming a governing coalition. If Ben Gvir’s and Smotrich’s parties gain more seats, they could have greater bargaining power over which parties form the government and which policies receive support. The article shows that their seats mattered after the 2022 election.

In that election, the two parties won 14 seats together, helping pave the way for what was described as Israel’s most right-wing government. Their current strength among first-time voters could therefore increase their influence if it is reflected in the full election result. More lawmakers would give their positions a larger presence in coalition negotiations.

The likely policy effect would depend on the final seat distribution and coalition arithmetic, which the article does not provide. Their stated or associated priorities include expanding settlements, tougher treatment of Palestinian prisoners, territorial expansion, and a death penalty for Palestinians convicted of deadly assaults. These issues could become more prominent in government policy.

Key Facts:

📌 Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s parties together projected 29 Knesset seats.

📌 Their combined support exceeded Likud’s projected result among first-time voters.

📌 More than 19 percent backed three far-right parties combined.

📌 The Knesset is Israel’s parliament.

📌 Parties below the electoral threshold do not enter the Knesset.

📌 Amcha Yisrael remained below the threshold in the poll.

📌 Otzma Yehudit received 8.88 percent among first-time voters.