Seeing orange: Nationals under threat in regional Victoria as angry voters consider One Nation

What does “seeing orange” mean in this article, and what is One Nation?

“Seeing orange” is a political shorthand for being attracted to One Nation. The phrase refers to the party’s orange branding and, in this case, to a voter considering supporting it. That matters because One Nation’s rise could weaken the Nationals’ support in regional Victoria.

Danny O’Brien encountered this attitude while speaking with a woman herding cows near Poowong. She said she “liked orange” and thought it was “time to shake things up”. O’Brien warned that voting One Nation could help Labor win “through the middle”. She later offered space for one of his signs on her family’s paddock.

The article identifies One Nation as Pauline Hanson’s party. Its statewide Victorian support is around 20 percent, with higher support in regional areas. Federally, its primary vote reached 25 percent in the latest Guardian Essential poll. The Nationals are trying to respond through local conversations and candidates with strong community profiles.

How large is One Nation’s support compared with the Nationals, the Coalition and Labor?

The figures show One Nation has become a serious competitor, especially outside Melbourne. Polls put its Victorian statewide vote at about 20 percent, with support higher in regional areas. That is a large enough share to disrupt established conservative voting patterns and put Nationals seats under pressure.

The latest Guardian Essential poll cited in the article measured One Nation’s federal primary vote at 25 percent. It was ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition, on 22 percent, but behind Labor, on 29 percent. These are federal figures, while the Victorian figure is statewide and the Nationals’ figure is given as seats rather than votes.

The Nationals currently hold nine Victorian lower-house seats, their best result since 1943. The article does not provide a directly comparable Nationals primary-vote percentage. Polling nevertheless suggests danger: one leaked Labor poll predicted a possible Nationals wipeout, while a Trades Hall poll forecast at least three losses to One Nation.

Why could a strong One Nation vote threaten the Nationals’ seats or indirectly help Labor win them?

A strong One Nation vote threatens the Nationals because both parties can compete for voters in regional and conservative communities. If those voters divide between the Nationals and One Nation, the Nationals may fail to finish strongly enough to retain a seat. Labor can then benefit from the division, even if One Nation attracts many votes.

The mechanism is visible in O’Brien’s conversation near Poowong. A woman said she liked One Nation and wanted to “shake things up”. O’Brien replied that voting for it could give Labor a path to victory “through the middle”. Jade Benham described One Nation as the Nationals’ “100%” biggest threat and said the party’s brand, rather than individual candidates, now mattered most.

This risk is already reflected in polling. Leaked Victorian Labor polling suggested the Nationals could face a wipeout, while a Trades Hall poll predicted at least three seats could move from the Nationals to One Nation. The actual result will depend on local contests and preference transfers.

What are the Nationals trying to defend and gain in the Victorian state election?

The Nationals’ immediate goal is to protect their current strength in Victoria. They hold nine lower-house seats, after gaining three seats from independents at the 2022 election. That was the party’s best result since 1943, so retaining those seats is central to its campaign.

The party is also targeting three seats. In Bendigo East, Jacinta Allan’s former seat, it has selected Andrew Lethlean, a popular local pub owner. It is also contesting Labor-held Bendigo West and Ripon. The strategy reflects the party’s emphasis on candidates who already have a strong local profile.

Danny O’Brien says the Victorian branch has become skilled at finding “local champions” and attaching the Nationals brand to them. This approach matters as One Nation grows in regional areas. The Nationals need to hold existing seats while expanding in selected contests, despite polls warning that their position may be vulnerable.

Why are economic changes, such as mine and timber-mill closures and the shift to renewable energy, affecting politics in regional Victoria?

Economic change affects regional politics because communities depend heavily on a small number of major industries. When those industries close or shrink, jobs, local spending and population stability can suffer. Voters then judge parties on whether they can protect livelihoods, improve services and create a future for younger residents.

Cindy Madeley describes Sale as a town that would not exist in its current form without oil and gas. Esso Australia is decommissioning half its offshore infrastructure. Yarram’s timber mill closed before Christmas, while other mills are importing Tasmanian timber after Victoria’s native-forest logging ban. Offshore wind is planned, but the community does not yet know how much it will gain.

These changes add a regional layer to concerns about living costs, interest rates, roads and hospitals. Madeley says people want to stay and keep their children nearby. One Nation responds by promising to halt new transmission lines and renewable projects, retain the large coal plant, lift the nuclear ban and restore logging. Those promises compete with uncertainty about the region’s economic direction.

How does preferential voting in Victorian lower-house elections determine which candidate wins when no one receives a majority of first-preference votes?

Preferential voting determines the winner when no candidate receives more than half of the first-preference votes. Voters rank candidates in order. First preferences show each candidate’s initial support, but they do not necessarily decide the contest.

If no candidate has a majority, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. That candidate’s ballots are examined for the next available preference, and those votes are transferred to the remaining candidates. The process repeats, with candidates eliminated one at a time, until one candidate has more than half of the votes still active.

This system explains why a party can win votes without winning a seat outright, and why preferences matter in close contests. In the article, O’Brien fears a One Nation vote could help Labor defeat the Nationals “through the middle”. That outcome would depend on how voters rank candidates and how preferences transfer during counting.

What is a political party’s primary vote, and why can its share of votes differ substantially from its share of parliamentary seats?

A party’s primary vote is its share of first-preference votes. It measures direct support before preferences from eliminated candidates are distributed. The figure is useful, but it does not by itself show how many parliamentary seats the party will win.

For example, a party might receive substantial support spread thinly across many electorates and finish second or third in each. It could win few seats. Another party might have a smaller overall vote but concentrated support, allowing it to finish first or win after preference transfers in several electorates. In preferential elections, later preferences can also change the final winner.

The article illustrates this distinction without giving every party’s comparable vote share. One Nation polls around 20 percent statewide in Victoria, while the Nationals hold nine lower-house seats. The number of seats depends on electorate-by-electorate results, boundaries, candidate contests and preferences. That is why a strong One Nation vote can threaten Nationals seats even without winning the largest statewide vote.

Key Facts:

📌 “Seeing orange” means considering a vote for One Nation.

📌 One Nation is Pauline Hanson’s party.

📌 One Nation support is higher in regional areas.

📌 One Nation polls around 20 percent statewide in Victoria.

📌 Federally, One Nation’s primary vote reached 25 percent.

📌 The federal figures were Labor 29 percent, Coalition 22 percent, One Nation 25 percent.

📌 O’Brien warned One Nation could give Labor a path “through the middle”.