Ganga Water Treaty is ‘flawed’, needs to be updated: Bangladesh river expert

What is the 1996 India-Bangladesh Ganga Water Treaty?

The 1996 India-Bangladesh Ganga Water Treaty sets rules for sharing water from the Ganga between the two countries. It matters because the river crosses national boundaries, so decisions upstream affect water availability downstream. The treaty was intended to provide an agreed framework rather than leave sharing to yearly disputes.

The article describes the agreement as a system that “simply divides the water of the river.” It does not provide the exact sharing formula or quantities in the text. Bangladesh’s former Foreign Secretary Farooq Sobhan also said the treaty lacked an arbitration clause, which would have offered a formal way to handle disagreements.

The treaty is due to expire in December 2026. Bangladeshi experts want a three-year replacement first, allowing more research and negotiation. They say a lasting agreement should include ecological flows, climate-change effects, Nepal’s role, and the river’s overall health.

How long has the treaty been in force, and when is it due to expire?

The treaty began in 1996, so by its scheduled expiry in December 2026 it will have been operating for roughly 30 years. That long duration explains why its renewal is now a major political and technical issue. The article says the agreement will expire unless India and Bangladesh agree to renew it for another three decades.

Its age is important because river conditions and scientific understanding have changed since the treaty was drafted. Manjur A. Chowdhury says the agreement does not address climate change, ecological flow, or environmental flow. He also says it lacks a guarantee clause, which he considers a major weakness.

Renewal discussions are already under way in both countries. However, important technical consultations have not yet taken place. Chowdhury proposes a three-year treaty before a more thoroughly researched and lasting agreement is negotiated. India’s government has also held inter-ministerial consultations about the treaty’s future.

How does the treaty divide Ganga water between India and Bangladesh, especially during the dry or lean months?

The treaty’s central function is to divide Ganga water between India and Bangladesh. This matters most when river levels are low and available water is limited. A sharing agreement can reduce uncertainty by giving both countries a common set of rules. However, the article does not state the exact quantities, percentages, or operational formula used under the treaty.

The article says the treaty “simply divides the water of the river.” Chowdhury argues that this is not enough because a river is affected by rainfall, snowmelt, ecological needs, and changing climate conditions. He specifically notes that the Ganga receives substantial snowmelt in lean months through rivers flowing from Nepal, including the Ghaghara, Gandaki, and Koshi.

The current arrangement therefore faces pressure from factors it may not fully capture. Experts want future negotiations to examine those flows, environmental needs, and climate impacts. They also want the river’s health protected, rather than treating available water as a fixed quantity to be divided.

Why do Bangladeshi experts consider the treaty flawed, and what are guarantee and arbitration clauses meant to do?

Bangladeshi experts consider the treaty flawed because it focuses on dividing water without fully addressing the river system around that division. Manjur A. Chowdhury points to the missing guarantee clause, ecological and environmental flows, and climate-change provisions. Former Foreign Secretary Farooq Sobhan separately identifies the absence of an arbitration clause as a problem.

A guarantee clause is meant to reinforce confidence that agreed water commitments will be maintained. An arbitration clause is meant to provide a formal process for resolving disputes when the parties disagree. Sobhan says a promised Indian barrage in Bangladesh was intended as a quid pro quo for leaving arbitration out, but the barrage was never built. Bangladesh also conducted surveys but lacked needed assistance.

These weaknesses make renewal more complicated. The article says unfulfilled promises must be revisited, alongside technical consultations. A new treaty could combine clearer commitments with a dispute process and stronger environmental rules, reducing reliance on political assurances alone.

What could happen to water-sharing arrangements if India and Bangladesh do not renew the treaty before it expires?

The treaty is scheduled to expire in December 2026 unless India and Bangladesh agree to renew it. If no renewal or replacement is concluded, the article indicates that the existing treaty framework would no longer continue as scheduled. It does not specify an automatic substitute arrangement or a precise legal outcome after expiry.

That uncertainty could make future sharing more difficult, especially during lean months when available water is limited. The countries would need to negotiate how to manage the river without the current long-term framework. Disputes could also become harder to handle because the treaty already lacks an arbitration clause, according to former Foreign Secretary Farooq Sobhan.

The article says discussions on renewal are ongoing, but important technical consultations remain unfinished. Chowdhury proposes a three-year interim treaty. That approach would prevent a sudden gap while giving both sides time to research climate effects, environmental requirements, Nepal’s river contributions, and possible improvements to the agreement.

Why does the proposed new agreement include Nepal, and how do rivers such as the Ghaghara, Gandaki, and Koshi affect the Ganga?

The proposed agreement includes Nepal because the Ganga is part of a wider river system, not only an India-Bangladesh issue. Manjur A. Chowdhury says Nepal’s rivers carry Himalayan snowmelt toward the Ganga. Considering Nepal could therefore improve planning for water arriving downstream, particularly when rainfall is low.

The article names the Ghaghara, Gandaki, and Koshi rivers. Chowdhury says these rivers provide substantial snowmelt to the Ganga during lean months and should be monitored. Their flows can affect the amount and timing of water available in the larger river system. The article does not provide measurements or a detailed three-country management plan.

Chowdhury wants a short three-year treaty followed by a better-researched trilateral agreement involving Nepal. Such negotiations would broaden the evidence base and account for upstream contributions. They could also encourage joint monitoring, although the article presents Nepal’s inclusion as a proposal, not an existing arrangement.

What are ecological and environmental flows, and why must a river treaty protect the health of the river rather than only divide its water?

Ecological and environmental flows mean maintaining enough water in a river to support its natural functions, ecosystems, and overall health. The article does not give a technical definition, but it says the treaty lacks ecological-flow and environmental-flow considerations. These concepts matter because a river is more than a volume of water available for human division.

Chowdhury warns that a good treaty should consider the “health of the river” so the Ganga is not overexploited. For example, an agreement that divides water without considering low-flow periods, climate change, or snowmelt could leave too little water for the river’s environmental needs. The article does not list specific ecosystems or flow thresholds.

This approach would change future negotiations from simple allocation to river management. A replacement treaty could combine water-sharing rules with environmental safeguards, updated research, and climate information. Chowdhury’s proposed three-year interim agreement would provide time to develop those provisions before a lasting treaty is finalized.

Key Facts:

📌 The treaty was signed by India and Bangladesh in 1996.

📌 It establishes a framework for sharing Ganga water.

📌 Experts say a replacement should include environmental and climate considerations.

📌 The treaty has been in force for approximately three decades.

📌 It is scheduled to expire in December 2026.

📌 Renewal could extend the agreement for another three decades.

📌 The treaty divides Ganga water between India and Bangladesh.