Will Taiwan issue derail Washington and Beijing’s latest reset? Analysts are sceptical

Beijing is concerned because Taiwan and the United States have increased their visible cooperation, even without declaring independence. Tsai Ing-wen’s US visit and a new Taiwan office in Arizona increased visibility. Pending American arms sales also touch China’s core Taiwan policy.

Tsai met former House speaker Nancy Pelosi and spoke at Stanford about Taiwan’s security role. Taiwan’s foreign minister opened the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Phoenix, expanding economic, technology, education, and supply-chain ties. Washington also delivered two F-16V fighters and is considering a separate US$14 billion weapons package.

These steps worry Beijing because it views Taiwan as part of China and opposes outside support strengthening a separate identity. The United States does not recognize Taiwan as independent, but opposes force and must legally arm Taiwan. Analysts expect a pragmatic response, though approving the package could damage China-US relations.

Grey-zone activities are pressure tactics below open war. They can involve military patrols, cyberattacks, economic pressure, or disinformation. Their purpose is to wear down Taiwan and test responses without launching an invasion.

In the article, Tsai Ing-wen accused Beijing of such activity around Taiwan during her Stanford speech. A related example came after Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022: the People’s Liberation Army held large-scale exercises around the island. These actions signal military power and raise costs, while stopping short of an attack that could trigger wider conflict.

The pressure continues, and the article says Taiwan faces increasing military pressure. Beijing has never ruled out force, while Washington opposes coercion and remains legally committed to supplying Taiwan arms. Grey-zone tactics can gradually change conditions while keeping China-US relations from immediately reaching war.

The issue involves two separate arms deals. A proposed US$14 billion package for Taiwan has awaited President Donald Trump’s approval for months. Approval could strain China-US relations, although analysts expect cooperation to continue.

A different package, approved in August 2019, covers 66 F-16V fighter jets. It was valued at NT$247.2 billion, or US$7.8 billion, and two jets arrived last week. They were due earlier this year. Such sales support Taiwan’s defense under US law, while Beijing views them as challenging its position on Taiwan.

Therefore, the pending package is about US$6.2 billion larger than the fighter-jet deal. Its approval remains the bigger uncertainty for relations and could carry political value before the midterm elections. Analysts said neither deal was likely to derail a possible Xi-Trump meeting in November.

The United States separates diplomatic recognition from defensive support. It does not recognize Taiwan as independent, but US law commits Washington to providing weapons for Taiwan’s self-defense. This approach aims to discourage both a forced takeover and actions that could trigger conflict.

For example, Taiwan recently received two F-16V fighters from a 66-jet package approved in 2019. The US sells such weapons because Beijing claims Taiwan and has not ruled out force, while Washington opposes any seizure by force.

Another US$14 billion package remains on hold pending President Donald Trump’s approval, making it a major concern for Beijing. The policy therefore preserves Taiwan’s ability to defend itself without formally recognizing independence, but arms decisions can still strain US-China relations. Those choices keep security and diplomacy closely linked.

Approving the delayed US$14 billion arms package would likely worsen China-US relations and increase military pressure around Taiwan. Analysts cited in the article still expected cooperation to continue, but viewed the sale as a serious setback.

A clear warning came after Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022. Beijing responded with large-scale military exercises and has continued increasing pressure since then. New weapons could strengthen Taiwan’s ability to defend itself. They could also convince Beijing that Washington is expanding military support.

That could make future exchanges, including a possible Xi-Trump meeting at November’s APEC summit in Shenzhen, more difficult. Yet analysts said the package would not necessarily overturn the broader cooperation consensus. The risks would be sharper tensions, more military activity, and greater danger of miscalculation. Washington would still maintain that it opposes both independence and coercion.

Pelosi’s 2022 visit mattered because she was the sitting US House speaker, making it a highly visible political signal. Beijing saw such senior-level contact as challenging its claim over Taiwan and Washington’s stated opposition to Taiwanese independence.

China responded with large-scale People’s Liberation Army exercises around the island. The drills showed Beijing could use military pressure to punish or deter visits it considered politically provocative and signal resolve.

According to the article, the response did not end when Pelosi left; military pressure around Taiwan continued to intensify. That changed the pattern from a single crisis response toward more sustained pressure, making future US-Taiwan contacts more sensitive. Beijing’s restrained public response to Tsai’s later US visit suggests it may calibrate reactions rather than confront every contact.

Deterrence means making an attack seem too costly or difficult to attempt. It relies on credible defensive strength, not necessarily fighting, to prevent conflict.

Taiwan’s F-16V purchase shows this logic in practice. The United States approved 66 jets in 2019, worth NT$247.2 billion, and two finally arrived last week. Better weapons could raise the military and political price of an assault, discouraging Beijing from using force.

Yet arms can also increase tensions. Beijing considers Taiwan part of China and opposes US support that strengthens the island’s separate security. Washington says it opposes both independence and coercion, while remaining legally committed to Taiwan’s defense. Analysts say a US$14 billion package awaiting Trump’s approval could damage China-US relations, although it might not end cooperation. The challenge is strengthening deterrence without making Beijing feel encircled or provoking retaliation.