Tinubu: World Bank report shows our reform on track

The World Bank's October 2026 Nigeria Development Update found signs that reforms since 2023 are improving Nigeria's economic position. Its title, "Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities," highlights how stronger public revenues affected state governments. The findings matter because they connect national reforms with state finances and household conditions.

The report said Nigeria grew 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent in the same period of 2025. Federation revenues rose 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025. Internally generated revenue increased in real terms in 31 of 35 states, while 21 states lowered their debt-to-GDP ratios.

Poverty stabilised for the first time since 2019, and the Bank expects it to decline gradually as growth outpaces population growth. However, higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict slowed inflation's decline. The government says it will continue reforms while focusing on food prices, jobs, cash transfers, healthcare and education.

The Nigeria Development Update is a World Bank report that reviews major economic conditions and changes in Nigeria. In this edition, titled "Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities," it examines growth, poverty, inflation, public debt and government revenues. These measures show whether economic changes are producing wider improvements.

The update matters to the government because it provides an external assessment of reforms introduced since 2023. The World Bank linked those reforms with a 69 per cent real increase in federation revenues between 2023 and 2025. It also reported higher internally generated revenue in 31 of 35 states and falling debt-to-GDP ratios in 21 states.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu welcomed the findings as evidence that difficult decisions are delivering results. The report also identifies unfinished work. Poverty must fall further, inflation must ease, and higher revenues must lead to lower food prices, decent jobs and better public services. Its projections help frame those priorities through 2028.

Nigeria's economy grew 4.2 per cent during the first half of 2026, according to the World Bank update welcomed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. This is an important measure because stronger GDP growth can expand incomes, government revenues and the resources available for public investment.

The result improved on the 3.9 per cent growth recorded in the first half of 2025. The report said this happened despite the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. It also projected that Nigeria's growth would average at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028.

Growth alone does not guarantee better living standards. The same report said poverty had stabilised, but the government acknowledged that more work is needed on food prices and jobs. Future progress will depend on whether expanding economic activity grows faster than the population and reaches households across the country.

The government said three major reforms helped raise federation revenues and create fiscal space. They were the removal of the petrol subsidy, the unification of the foreign exchange market and stronger fiscal discipline. Fiscal space means governments have more room in their budgets to fund priorities after meeting essential obligations.

The World Bank report linked reforms since 2023 with a 69 per cent increase in federation revenues in real terms between 2023 and 2025. States were described as the largest beneficiaries. Internally generated revenue grew in real terms in 31 of 35 states, giving many state governments more resources beyond shared federation funds.

The government says this additional money should support investments that improve daily life. President Tinubu urged states to spend more prudently and prioritise projects for living standards, health and education. The reforms therefore changed both the amount of public revenue available and the debate over how states should use it.

The report identified several changes across Nigeria's economy and public finances. Internally generated revenue grew in real terms in 31 of 35 states. Twenty-one states reduced their debt-to-GDP ratios between 2021 and 2025. Poverty stabilised for the first time since 2019, and the World Bank expects it to decline gradually as GDP grows faster than the population.

Inflation fell from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December 2025. Higher global fuel prices connected to the Middle East conflict slowed that decline afterward. The Bank expects inflation to ease to about 12 per cent by 2028. Nigeria's overall public debt was expected to fall from 40.0 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 38.1 per cent in 2026.

Together, these figures point to stronger revenues and improving debt indicators, but not a complete recovery. Persistent price pressures still affect households. The government must convert improved finances into jobs, affordable food and better services.

If growth continues while food prices and job shortages remain high, many households may see little improvement in daily life. A growing economy can raise national output and government revenues, but those gains do not automatically reduce the cost of meals or provide work. Families may continue facing pressure even while headline economic indicators improve.

The article points to this tension directly. The World Bank said poverty had stabilised, rather than fallen sharply. The government said the dividends of reform were becoming visible, but stressed that more work was needed to deliver lower food prices and decent jobs for young people. Higher global fuel prices had already slowed inflation's decline.

The forward implication is that growth must become more inclusive. The administration plans to expand cash transfers, deploy CNG, raise agricultural productivity and improve healthcare and education. States are also being urged to use higher revenues for projects that improve living standards and public services.

GDP, or gross domestic product, measures the value of goods and services produced in an economy over a period. Inflation measures how quickly prices generally rise. Public debt is the money a government owes. These indicators matter because no single figure captures the whole economic picture. GDP shows activity, inflation shows pressure on household budgets, and debt shows borrowing obligations.

The article uses all three. Nigeria's economy grew 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9 per cent a year earlier. Inflation fell from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December. Public debt was expected to decline from 40.0 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 38.1 per cent in 2026.

Together, the figures suggest stronger growth and debt improvement, but continuing price concerns. Economists therefore compare them rather than relying on growth alone. The article also considers poverty, revenues and jobs to judge whether progress reaches households.