Lula takes to the streets of São Paulo to close the gap two weeks before the runoff

A presidential runoff is a second election between the leading candidates when no one wins the required majority in the first round. It narrows the choice and gives the eventual winner a majority of valid votes. Brazil is holding one because Lula and Bolsonaro finished first and second, rather than securing a decisive result immediately.

Lula received 45.16% of valid first-round votes, while the Liberal Party candidate won 47.03%. Because neither reached a majority, both advanced to the October 25 runoff. The Datafolha poll later showed a very close contest, with Bolsonaro on 49% and Lula on 45% of voting intentions.

The runoff matters because the first-round lead does not guarantee victory. The article notes that no candidate who finished second in Brazil's first round has won the runoff since direct presidential elections returned in 1989. Lula is therefore trying to overturn both the first-round result and a long historical pattern.

The race is extremely close, despite Bolsonaro holding a narrow lead. Datafolha gives Bolsonaro 49% of voting intentions and Lula 45%, a four-point difference. When calculated only among valid votes, the figures become 52% to 48%. The pollster says this falls within the margin of error.

The first-round results were also close, but Bolsonaro's lead was slightly smaller in percentage-point terms. The Liberal Party candidate received 47.03% of valid votes, compared with Lula's 45.16%. That is a 1.87-point difference. The figures show that neither campaign begins the runoff with a commanding advantage.

Only 1% of respondents say they are undecided, so the campaigns must fight over existing preferences, turnout, and possible changes of mind. Bolsonaro enters with the first-round lead and the polling lead. Lula remains close enough to win, but he must overcome both gaps before the October 25 vote.

A tiny undecided group means the runoff may depend less on persuading undecided voters and more on motivating people who stayed home. Only 1% of respondents are undecided, while about 33 million Brazilians did not vote in the first round. That creates a large pool of potential voters, although the article does not say how they would vote.

Lula's Workers' Party is focusing on this nonvoting group. Its campaign has increased social media activity, using testimonies from social-programme beneficiaries. It is also addressing people over 70 and 16- and 17-year-olds, whose voting is not compulsory. These efforts aim to turn eligible but absent voters into participants.

If more nonvoters return, the electorate could look different from the first round. Their participation might help either candidate, depending on their preferences. The immediate implication is that turnout operations, targeted messages, and online campaigning could be decisive alongside efforts to hold existing supporters.

The rally is a campaign reset at a crucial moment. Lula led a large event on São Paulo's Avenida Paulista two weeks before the runoff, while trailing Bolsonaro in both the first-round result and the latest poll. He used the gathering to warn that Brazil cannot lose its democracy and to present promises for a new term.

His campaign is also targeting voters who may have been absent or less engaged. It has shared testimonies from social-programme beneficiaries and messages aimed at people over 70 and 16- and 17-year-olds. Voting is not compulsory for those groups, so direct outreach may encourage participation. The campaign is focusing on the roughly 33 million people who did not vote initially.

This strategy reflects the race's narrow margins and limited undecided vote. Lula needs to energize supporters, attract additional voters, and build a broader coalition. He promised a technological revolution for the digital industry and a public-security revolution focused on safety and imprisonment of criminals.

A runoff forces candidates to gather support beyond their original base. Former candidates can publicly recommend a choice, allied governors can help mobilize voters, and coalition parties can provide regional networks and campaign reach. These endorsements matter most when polling shows only a small difference between the finalists.

Bolsonaro has backing from former candidates Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. He also met the ten allied governors elected in the first round. Lula leads a seven-party alliance that stretches from the left-wing Socialism and Liberty Party to the centre-right represented by his running mate, Geraldo Alckmin.

These alliances may help each campaign contact voters and strengthen its message. They do not guarantee that every supporter follows an endorsement. The likely effect is to widen each candidate's appeal and improve organization before October 25. In a contest with 1% undecided, even turnout changes or small shifts among supporters could be important.

The historical fact matters because it identifies a repeated advantage for first-round winners. Since direct presidential elections returned in 1989, no candidate who finished second has gone on to win the runoff. Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round, so the precedent currently favors him.

The first-round numbers illustrate the challenge. The Liberal Party candidate won 47.03% of valid votes, while Lula received 45.16%. Lula must now overcome that initial deficit and win a majority in the runoff. His rally, social-media campaign, and focus on nonvoters are attempts to do so.

History is a pattern, not a rule that determines the result. The current poll is close, with Bolsonaro at 49% and Lula at 45%, and the pollster calls it a statistical tie. Lula could therefore break the precedent, but the article presents that possibility against a record that has favored every previous first-round leader.

Brazil's presidential system uses majority voting with a possible runoff. In the first round, candidates compete nationally. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, the two leading candidates advance to a second round. The runoff selects the candidate who wins the majority of valid votes cast there.

The article demonstrates this process directly. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party candidate received 47.03% of valid first-round votes, and Lula received 45.16%. Neither had a majority, so they will compete on October 25. Percentages based on valid votes exclude ballots that do not count toward the candidates' totals.

Voting is compulsory for eligible voters in the main adult voting population, while the article specifically identifies people over 70 and 16- and 17-year-olds as not subject to compulsory voting. That makes turnout important. Lula's campaign is targeting these groups and the roughly 33 million first-round nonvoters, hoping participation can change the runoff electorate.