Vox rises as Sanchez battles political turmoil: Could Spain swing right?

Vox is a Spanish far-right party that has grown from a fringe movement into a possible governing force. Its politics include strong opposition to immigration, emphasis on Spanish nationhood, and hostility toward established parties. These positions matter because Vox could help determine who controls Spain’s government.

The article describes young voters attracted by rebellion, national identity, and anti-migrant feeling. Alberto Munoz, a 24-year-old programmer, said he opposed Sanchez’s willingness to allow more migrants into Spain. Vox also works with the conservative People’s Party in regional governments and councils.

Vox publicly distances itself from Francisco Franco’s dictatorship, but expert Steven Forti says its language can use indirect references, or “dog whistles,” about that era. If polling is accurate, Vox could enter national government with the PP. The ministries it controls would show how far its positions shape policy.

The election’s projected scale gives the right a clear advantage. A survey cited by El Pais predicted that the conservative People’s Party and Vox would secure 198 parliamentary seats together. A majority requires 176 seats, so their combined total would be enough to form a government if they cooperate.

Vox was expected to make the biggest gain. An RTVE survey projected that it would rise from 33 seats to 65. The PP’s support was not projected to increase, but its existing strength combined with Vox’s growth could create a governing majority. The Socialists, led by Pedro Sanchez, were projected to win 112 seats.

That would leave the Socialists 64 seats short of the majority threshold and 86 seats behind the PP–Vox projection. Polls are not election results, but these figures explain why a right-wing coalition appeared likely and why Sanchez faced a serious political challenge.

Pedro Sanchez called a snap election despite weak polling because the housing crisis had created intense public anger. Tens of thousands of people protested across Spain. Sanchez appears to have judged that an immediate campaign could reconnect his government with voters before declining support became even harder to reverse.

The eviction of 87-year-old Maria del Carmen Abascal from her Madrid home became a powerful symbol. She had lived there for seven decades. Activists camped in central Madrid and other cities, and she became known across Spain as Maricarmen before dying this month.

Sanchez’s strategy was an audacious gamble. His party was projected to fall from 121 seats to 112, while the PP and Vox were projected to reach 198 together. The election could therefore either rally the left around housing concerns or confirm the polls’ warning that Sanchez’s government was losing support.

Spain’s parliamentary system allows parties to govern together when no single party wins enough seats. The key issue is whether allied parties can command a majority in parliament. For the PP and Vox, cooperation could turn separate election results into one governing bloc.

The article gives a clear example. The PP won the most votes in 2023 but lacked enough support to lead alone, and it did not form a coalition with Vox. Sanchez instead formed a government with help from Together for Catalonia. Since then, the PP and Vox have governed together in four regions and shared power in about 100 councils.

The latest projection puts the PP and Vox at 198 seats, above the 176 needed for a majority. If the parties kept that alliance nationally, they could form a government even if each party separately fell short. Their existing cooperation makes such an agreement more plausible.

A PP–Vox government would change Spain’s political direction by replacing one of Europe’s last left-wing governments with a conservative and far-right partnership. The shift matters beyond party labels because coalition agreements determine which policies and ministries shape everyday government.

The article points to several possible priorities. PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo has promised to build 200,000 homes each year and cut taxes. Vox’s central themes include restricting immigration, emphasizing nationhood, and challenging established parties. Expert Steven Forti says the decisive question would be which ministries Vox controls.

The coalition would also mark the hard right’s return to national power since Franco died in 1975. The exact programme would depend on negotiations, so the article does not specify every policy change. Still, a PP–Vox majority could end Sanchez’s government and give Vox direct influence over national decisions.

A PP–Vox coalition would be historically significant because the article identifies it as the first possible return of the hard right to power since Francisco Franco’s death in 1975. Franco’s dictatorship is therefore the dividing line between Spain’s authoritarian past and this potential modern right-wing coalition.

The historical link is complicated. Vox does not openly present itself as a Francoist party. Steven Forti says it distances itself from the dictatorship, as other far-right parties do. Yet Vox leader Santiago Abascal once described Sanchez’s government as the worst in 80 years, language that implied the Franco period was better.

Forti calls this “dog whistle politics” because the dictatorship is not named directly. A PP–Vox government would not be the same as Franco’s dictatorship, but it would place a hard-right party in national power for the first time since that era ended. That symbolic change would carry major historical weight.

In a parliamentary democracy, parties need enough seats to govern, often by forming coalitions. Voters’ concerns affect those seats. Housing can create anger against incumbents, immigration can strengthen anti-migrant parties, and corruption can make voters seek change. Political fragmentation then determines whether those votes produce a workable government.

Spain’s election shows the mechanism. Housing protests followed the eviction of Maricarmen, while Feijoo attacked Sanchez over corruption and promised homes and tax cuts. Vox gained support through anti-immigration and nationhood themes. At the same time, the far left was split into many groups, making joint mobilisation difficult.

The article says the right was more unified through the PP and Vox, while left-wing parties lost support. That combination can matter as much as any single issue. If the projected numbers hold, the PP and Vox could pass the 176-seat majority line, while the Socialists fall to 112 seats.