TrendForce expects declining global laptop shipments to slow manufacturing exodus from China

TrendForce projects that worldwide notebook shipments will decline by a low single-digit percentage in 2027. That means the market would shrink slightly rather than collapse. The forecast matters because manufacturers are already dealing with expensive CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs, while consumers may become less willing to replace their laptops.

Shipments could look better in 2026 because CPU availability is expected to improve and manufacturers are stocking up on components. However, some customers are buying earlier than planned because they expect prices to rise. Those early purchases remove some future demand, leaving fewer people ready to buy in 2027.

The final decline depends on how companies respond. If they adjust specifications and absorb some costs, the fall could remain small. If they raise retail prices substantially, TrendForce says the decline could reach the high-single-digit range. The forecast therefore links shipments directly to component costs and consumer affordability.

Manufacturers may slow their move outside China because weaker laptop demand makes production decisions more sensitive to cost. When fewer devices are expected to sell, companies have less reason to support manufacturing locations that may be more expensive or less efficient. TrendForce projects the share of global notebook production outside China will fall from 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026.

The projected share could drop below 20% in 2027. At the same time, manufacturers will face high CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices. They must decide whether to absorb those costs, raise prices, or alter specifications. Weaker demand makes each option harder because sales volumes and margins are already under pressure.

This does not mean production outside China will disappear. It means the manufacturing exodus may slow as companies prioritize cost control. If consumers resist higher prices, manufacturers may favor production strategies that help protect affordability and profitability while demand weakens.

A bill of materials, or BOM, is the combined cost of the parts and materials used to make a product. For a laptop, that includes major components such as the CPU, DRAM, and SSD, along with other hardware and materials. It helps manufacturers estimate how much a device costs to assemble before considering broader business expenses and pricing decisions.

The article uses BOM to compare component costs with a mainstream notebook’s $900 manufacturer’s suggested retail price. In the third quarter of 2026, the CPU, DRAM, and SSD together were estimated to represent about 68% of that notebook’s BOM cost. This shows why changes in a few key components can strongly affect manufacturing economics.

BOM costs matter because manufacturers must balance prices, specifications, and profits. When parts become more expensive, companies may raise retail prices, accept lower margins, or change the laptop’s specifications. TrendForce expects manufacturers will struggle to maintain all three in 2027.

TrendForce estimates that the CPU, DRAM, and SSD together make up approximately 68% of the bill of materials for a mainstream notebook. The figure measures their share of the device’s component cost, not 68% of the laptop’s retail price. It highlights how heavily laptop manufacturing depends on three core parts.

The estimate applies to a mainstream notebook with a $900 manufacturer’s suggested retail price in the third quarter of 2026. If prices for these parts remain high, manufacturers will have limited room to protect profits without changing something else. Their choices include charging customers more, accepting narrower margins, or reducing specifications.

The pressure could intensify in 2027. DRAM supply is expected to remain tight because of AI demand, while NAND flash availability may improve during the second half of the year. TrendForce says manufacturers are unlikely to preserve pricing, specifications, and profitability simultaneously.

Rising component costs force laptop makers into a difficult trade-off. They can pass more costs to customers through higher prices, absorb the increase and accept lower profit margins, or change the product’s specifications. Each response protects one priority while creating pressure somewhere else.

For example, a company might reduce memory capacity to control production costs instead of raising the laptop’s price. That could make the product less competitive. Alternatively, a price increase could preserve margins but weaken demand, especially after customers have already brought purchases forward. Absorbing the costs avoids a price jump but squeezes profitability.

The article estimates that CPU, DRAM, and SSDs represent about 68% of a mainstream notebook’s BOM cost. Manufacturers are therefore unlikely to maintain prices, specifications, and profitability simultaneously in 2027. If higher costs reach consumers, laptop prices could rise further and shipments could decline by a high-single-digit percentage.

Buying a laptop earlier than planned can make near-term shipments look healthier while weakening the following year. A customer who replaces a device in 2026 usually has less reason to buy another one in 2027. This shifts demand forward rather than creating a lasting increase in total demand.

TrendForce expects shipments to benefit from better CPU availability and manufacturer stockpiling in 2026. But the firm warns that stronger shipments do not necessarily show healthy consumer demand. Some customers are upgrading early in anticipation of higher prices. Once those customers have completed their purchases, the pool of immediate buyers becomes smaller.

That pull-forward effect contributes to the projected low-single-digit shipment decline in 2027. It could be more severe if manufacturers pass rising component costs to consumers. If companies limit price increases by adjusting specifications and absorbing some costs, the decline could remain small; otherwise, it could reach the high-single-digit range.

A CPU is the laptop’s main processor, handling instructions and calculations. DRAM is short-term working memory used by active programs. An SSD provides longer-term storage for the operating system, applications, and files. Together, these parts strongly affect a laptop’s performance, capacity, and manufacturing cost.

Prices respond when supply and demand become unbalanced. Strong demand or limited production can raise prices, while better availability can reduce pressure. The article says DRAM supply is likely to remain tight because of AI demand. It also says NAND flash availability, which affects SSD storage, could improve during the second half of 2027.

CPU availability is expected to improve in 2026, helping shipments and allowing manufacturers to stock components. However, high prices for CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs remain a major concern. Because these parts make up about 68% of a mainstream notebook’s BOM, price changes can lead to higher laptop prices, altered specifications, or lower manufacturer profits.