Why Arab parties could hold the key to government formation in Israel’s next election

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament, with 120 seats. It is central to government formation because Israelis do not directly elect their prime minister. Instead, the position goes to the leader who can form a government backed by a parliamentary majority.

That majority requires support from at least 61 lawmakers. For example, the article’s projections give Netanyahu’s bloc and the Jewish opposition 52 seats each in one Maariv survey. Neither bloc could govern alone, so both would need support from additional lawmakers.

This makes election results about coalition-building as much as party strength. Arab parties and Yoaz Hendel’s Reserve Party could hold the balance if the projections are accurate. Their support could help an alternative government reach 61 seats, although formal cooperation remains politically contentious.

The main blocs are projected to fall short of the majority needed to govern. A Jerusalem Post poll of polls gives Netanyahu’s bloc and the Jewish opposition 54 seats each, with Arab parties projected to win eight. Channel 12 similarly projects 54 for the opposition, 49 for Netanyahu’s coalition, and eight for Arab parties.

Maariv offers another outcome. It projects 52 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc and 52 for the Jewish opposition, while Arab parties could win 12. Yoaz Hendel’s Reserve Party is forecast to take four seats and has not committed to either camp.

Because 61 seats are required, neither main bloc reaches the threshold alone in these projections. The gap ranges from seven seats to nine seats in the main Maariv figures. Extra support would therefore be necessary to form a government.

Arab parties become important because the projected Jewish blocs cannot reach 61 seats alone. If neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the Jewish opposition has a majority, Arab lawmakers can provide the extra parliamentary support needed for a government to survive and pass key votes.

The Maariv survey illustrates the arithmetic. It gives each main bloc 52 seats and Arab parties 12. The Jewish opposition would need only nine additional votes to reach 61, while the Reserve Party’s four seats could also matter. Arab parties could therefore become decisive even without leading the election.

Their influence is politically complicated. Yousef Jabareen said his party would use every available means to replace Netanyahu but would not formally join the opposition alliance. Most Jewish opposition leaders have rejected cooperation with Arab lawmakers, so arithmetic alone may not produce an agreement.

Supporting a government does not necessarily mean joining its formal coalition. Arab lawmakers could give an alternative government the votes needed for confidence, budgets, or other parliamentary measures while remaining outside the cabinet and coalition agreement.

The article points to Yousef Jabareen’s position as an example. He said the Joint List would use all available tools to replace Netanyahu and impose conditions on any political arrangement. At the same time, he ruled out formally joining the opposition alliance led by Eisenkot, Lapid, and Bennett.

This arrangement would give Arab parties influence without making them official government partners. It could help a Jewish opposition government reach or maintain the 61-seat threshold. However, the article notes that most Jewish opposition leaders oppose cooperation with Arab lawmakers, and public opinion also largely rejects formal Arab participation.

A government needs backing from at least 61 lawmakers, so failure to assemble that support creates a political deadlock. The article explains the threshold and the competing projections, but it does not describe the complete procedure that follows if every effort fails.

Under Israel’s established parliamentary process, the president can ask a candidate who appears able to form a government to try. If that attempt fails, another candidate may receive the opportunity. If no candidate succeeds within the legal process, the Knesset can be dissolved and another election may be held.

That possibility makes coalition negotiations especially important. In the article’s projections, both main blocs lack a majority, while Arab parties and the Reserve Party hold potentially decisive seats. Without an agreement, Israel could face prolonged negotiations, a political stalemate, or another vote rather than a new government.

Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List became a formal participant in Israel’s governing coalition in 2021. Its participation helped Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid form a government and ended Netanyahu’s 12-year stretch as prime minister.

The arrangement was significant because an Arab party formally joined an Israeli governing coalition. It showed how a relatively small party could become essential when larger blocs could not independently assemble a majority. The United Arab List’s participation supplied parliamentary support for the coalition led by Bennett and Lapid.

The coalition was ideologically diverse and faced disagreements over contentious policy issues. Those tensions eventually caused it to collapse, paving the way for elections in 2022. Netanyahu’s Likud then emerged as the largest party, and he returned to power with support from far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties.

In proportional representation, parties receive parliamentary seats broadly according to their share of the vote. This can give several parties representation instead of concentrating power in two large parties. A government still needs a majority, so larger parties often must negotiate with smaller partners.

The article’s projections show the mechanism clearly. Maariv gives Netanyahu’s bloc and the Jewish opposition 52 seats each, while Arab parties could win 12 and the Reserve Party four. Neither main bloc reaches 61, making smaller parties potential kingmakers in coalition talks.

Such bargaining often creates ideologically diverse governments because partners may agree on forming a government while disagreeing on major policies. The 2021 Bennett-Lapid coalition demonstrates the risk. It included an Arab party, faced disagreements over contentious issues, and eventually collapsed. The current projections again suggest that coalition-building will decide the government.