Conflict, drought increasing risk of famine in Sudan: Monitor

Conflict and drought reinforce each other. Fighting displaces people, disrupts farming, damages markets, and limits humanitarian access. Drought then reduces harvests and water supplies. Together, these pressures shrink food availability, raise prices, and weaken household incomes across Darfur and Kordofan.

The article reports poor vegetation growth across nearly two-thirds of cropland in North Darfur and about half in three other regions. North Darfur faces delayed rains and critically low food stocks. Western Kordofan is experiencing one of its worst droughts since 2004. Farmers have fewer opportunities to recover, so dependence on assistance is increasing.

The danger is escalating hunger, malnutrition, disease, and deaths. Nearly 19.5 million people faced high acute food insecurity in May, including 135,000 in the most severe phase. The IPC warns that food insecurity, acute malnutrition, and excess mortality will likely intensify while conflict and drought continue.

Famine is the most severe stage of a food crisis. It means extreme shortages are widespread and linked to starvation, very high malnutrition, and deaths from disease or acute malnutrition. It is not simply a synonym for hunger. Famine describes a population-level emergency with exceptionally severe consequences.

Acute food insecurity concerns access to food. People may lack enough safe, nutritious food because supplies, money, markets, or assistance are unavailable. Acute malnutrition concerns the body’s condition, often seen in dangerously undernourished children. These conditions can overlap, but they measure different problems.

The IPC identifies Phase 5 as the most severe classification. In Sudan, 135,000 people were in Phase 5 in May. The article reports that two South Darfur displacement camps recorded global acute malnutrition above famine thresholds, showing how inadequate food, water, healthcare, and security can combine into a deadly crisis.

The IPC assessment found that nearly 19.5 million people in Sudan faced high levels of acute food insecurity in May. That represented more than 40 percent of the country’s population. The figure shows that hunger was not confined to a few isolated communities, but had become a nationwide emergency shaped by conflict, displacement, drought, and failing livelihoods.

Within that total, 135,000 people were in Phase 5, the IPC’s most severe classification. Phase 5 is characterized by extreme food shortages, starvation, very high levels of malnutrition, and deaths from disease or acute malnutrition. It represents conditions beyond ordinary food hardship.

The article warns that the situation may worsen. Food insecurity, acute malnutrition, and excess mortality are likely to intensify as fighting continues, rains remain poor, food stocks fall, and healthcare and clean water become harder to access. The most affected areas include parts of Darfur and Kordofan.

War and displacement separate people from farms, jobs, markets, homes, and community support. Fighting also disrupts transport and humanitarian access. When fewer goods reach markets, prices rise. Families who have lost income or assets then struggle to buy food, even when some food remains available.

Drought adds another layer of damage. Poor rainfall causes weak vegetation and lower crop production. The article reports that nearly two-thirds of cropland in North Darfur and about half in South Darfur, West Kordofan, and South Kordofan have poor vegetation growth. Water shortages limit both farming and recovery. Farmers become more dependent on assistance.

The conflict has displaced about 13 million people. In North Darfur, delayed rains and critically low food stocks have worsened insecurity. In Western Kordofan, poor rainfall has produced one of the worst droughts since 2004. Together, these pressures reduce food access and make livelihoods harder to rebuild.

The war is being fought between Sudan’s military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, known as the RSF. Tensions between them escalated into open fighting in Khartoum in April 2023, then spread across the country. The conflict has divided territorial control and disrupted civilian life on a vast scale.

The army holds sway in Sudan’s central and eastern regions. The RSF controls the Darfur region in the west and parts of the south. Darfur has experienced some of the worst violence. Displacement camps have been invaded, and ethnic cleansing has killed thousands at a time, according to the article.

At least 150,000 people have been killed, according to conflict monitor ACLED, although aid groups say the actual toll is likely higher. About 13 million people have been displaced. Civilians face hunger, disease, limited healthcare, scarce water, and worsening insecurity as fighting continues.

Scarce healthcare means sick and malnourished people cannot receive timely treatment. Unsafe or unavailable water increases vulnerability to disease. When food stocks and assistance also decline, families cannot replace lost meals or protect children from worsening undernutrition. These pressures interact rather than occurring separately.

Nyala provides a clear example. The share of children accessing nutrition services who were admitted for severe acute malnutrition doubled from approximately 5 percent to 11 percent between January and August. Two displacement camps in South Darfur also recorded global acute malnutrition above famine thresholds. These figures show the crisis reaching children directly.

Communities face more than hunger. The IPC warns that food insecurity, acute malnutrition, and excess mortality will likely intensify. Limited healthcare, scarce clean water, disease, displacement, and poor nourishment can increase deaths, while the loss of farmers and livelihoods makes recovery harder.

El Niño-induced drought affects rainfall and can leave farmland without enough water. When rains are delayed or weak, crops grow poorly and farmers may fail to cultivate or harvest normally. Vegetation also becomes sparse. This reduces the food produced locally and weakens the income that farming families depend on.

The article reports poor vegetation growth across nearly two-thirds of cropland in North Darfur and about half in South Darfur, West Kordofan, and South Kordofan. North Darfur experienced delayed rains and critically low food stocks. Western Kordofan faced one of its worst droughts since 2004 amid poor rainfall. Severe water shortages further limit recovery.

Lower production means less food in markets and greater dependence on assistance. Scarcity can drive prices upward, making food less affordable for displaced and poor households. Combined with war, drought can therefore turn a rainfall shock into widespread food insecurity, malnutrition, and possible famine.