Environment & Climate13 Oct 2026 · about 6 min

MetMalaysia: Super El Nino forecast for March-May 2027, temperatures could break Malaysia’s 40.1°C record

The brief

A “Super El Niño” is the article’s term for the current, exceptionally intense El Niño phenomenon. It matters because El Niño can bring hotter and drier conditions to Malaysia. The strongest impacts are expected between March and May next year, when temperatures may reach unprecedented levels and rainfall may become scarce. The current event is projected to produce an index above 2.5. That would exceed the peak index of 2.3 recorded during the 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 El Niño episodes. During strong El Niño events, daily maximum temperatures can rise by up to 0.7°C above normal. MetMalaysia expects the hottest conditions next March to May. Temperatures above 35°C may occur across wider areas and last longer. Northern Peninsula states could also experience a dry period, potentially including up to 77 consecutive days without rain.

What is a “Super El Niño,” and when is it expected to affect Malaysia?

The current event is projected to produce an index above 2.5. That would exceed the peak index of 2.3 recorded during the 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 El Niño episodes. During strong El Niño events, daily maximum temperatures can rise by up to 0.7°C above normal.

MetMalaysia expects the hottest conditions next March to May. Temperatures above 35°C may occur across wider areas and last longer. Northern Peninsula states could also experience a dry period, potentially including up to 77 consecutive days without rain.

How hot could Malaysia become, and how would temperatures above 41°C compare with the current national record of 40.1°C?

Malaysia’s maximum temperature could exceed 41°C during the forecast hot spell. That would be at least 0.9°C higher than the national record of 40.1°C. The difference is significant because the record has stood since 1998, despite later strong El Niño conditions.

The record was measured in Chuping, Perlis, on April 9, 1998. MetMalaysia director-general Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip said the expected rise reflects the combined influence of the intense current El Niño, climate change and global warming. The projection is for temperatures reaching 41°C or higher.

The article also notes that the country’s temperature has been increasing by about 0.13°C per decade. Over nearly 30 years, this long-term rise could combine with El Niño-related heat. As a result, the next peak could exceed the old record by more than one degree.

How does this forecast compare with the major El Niño events of 1997–1998 and 2015–2016?

The forecast stands out because its projected El Niño index is above 2.5. That is higher than the peak index of 2.3 recorded during both the 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 episodes. A stronger index signals a potentially more severe hot and dry period for Malaysia.

Malaysia’s highest recorded temperature, 40.1°C, occurred in Chuping, Perlis, on April 9, 1998. During the 2015–2016 episode, the peak was lower at 39.3°C, recorded in Batu Embun, Pahang, on April 10, 2016. These figures provide the key historical comparison.

MetMalaysia projects that the current event could push temperatures above 41°C. It also warns that temperatures above 35°C may become more widespread and last longer. The comparison suggests that the coming conditions could exceed both recent El Niño benchmarks in intensity and heat.

What could happen to rainfall during the forecast period, including the possibility of going as long as 77 days without rain?

The forecast El Niño could sharply reduce rainfall, especially in northern Peninsular Malaysia. Previous records show that dry conditions can last as long as 77 consecutive days without rain. Such a prolonged break would increase pressure on stored water and communities that depend on regular rainfall.

The article describes a possible pattern beginning at the end of the year. Rainfall could weaken in December, remain limited through January and February, and return around March. This timing overlaps with preparations for hotter weather expected from March to May.

The risk is not simply a single hot day. Temperatures above 35°C may occur more widely and for longer periods while rain is absent. That combination could worsen water shortages and increase demand for cooling. Officials therefore want dams filled before the drier conditions arrive.

Why is the 2026–2027 Northeast Monsoon important for filling Malaysia’s dams before the expected dry spell?

The 2026–2027 Northeast Monsoon is important because it is expected to bring significant rainfall before next year’s hotter, drier period. That rain can raise dam levels and strengthen Malaysia’s water reserves. Officials say storage should be increased before the expected dry spell begins.

The monsoon is currently forecast to start in late October. MetMalaysia director-general Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip stressed that dams should be full before next year begins. This preparation supports water supply if rainfall later becomes scarce, particularly in northern Peninsular states.

Previous records show that rainfall can be limited from December through February during this pattern. A shortage lasting up to 77 consecutive days without rain could recur. The preparation follows a directive from Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr. Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who called for early action on water supply and storage.

What effects could prolonged extreme heat have on electricity demand and public health, and how would Malaysia’s heat-warning levels respond?

Prolonged extreme heat could raise electricity consumption substantially. More people are expected to use air conditioners during the hot months, increasing pressure on the energy grid. Officials warn that insufficient capacity could cause disruptions and compromise grid reliability.

Heat can also create public-health risks, which is why MetMalaysia is working with the Ministry of Health on a Heat Index. The system will establish threshold values for warnings about health risks linked to hot weather. It is intended to give the public clearer signals as conditions become more dangerous.

Malaysia’s current monitoring system has three levels. Level 1 begins at 35°C, Level 2 at 37°C, and Level 3 at 40°C. With temperatures projected to exceed 41°C, the highest existing level could be reached or surpassed. Agencies are preparing the issue for a Disaster Management Council meeting next week.

How does El Niño alter weather patterns in Malaysia, and how can long-term climate change make its temperature effects more severe?

El Niño alters Malaysia’s weather by reducing rainfall and raising temperatures. During strong events, daily maximum temperatures can climb up to 0.7°C above normal. Temperatures above 35°C may also become more widespread and persist for longer periods, creating hotter and drier conditions.

The article gives a possible rainfall pattern: dry conditions may start in December, continue through January and February, and return to wetter conditions around March. Northern states could face up to 77 consecutive days without rain. This shows how El Niño can affect both temperature and water availability.

Climate change adds a longer-term warming trend of about 0.13°C per decade in Malaysia. After nearly 30 years since the 40.1°C record in 1998, that background rise can combine with El Niño heat. MetMalaysia therefore projects temperatures above 41°C.

This brief was written by AI from the original reporting and checked by other models. Names, figures and quotes come from the source; read it for full context.