English councils warn of ‘catastrophic’ Send debts forecast to hit £10bn by 2028

English councils are warning that SEND debt could reach £10bn because demand for support is growing rapidly while funding has not kept pace. Councils must meet legal duties to support children with special educational needs and disabilities, even when the cost exceeds their budgets. The County Councils Network says the overspending is not caused by reckless decisions.

The government recently cleared more than £5bn in historic SEND debt. However, councils predict that rising requests will recreate that amount by April. They forecast the total could double by 2028. The growth is linked partly to more education, health and care plans, which can unlock extra funding or specialist school places.

The immediate problem is made worse by uncertainty over future government support. Ministers have agreed to pay 90% of debts accumulated to March 2026, but future help will not be unlimited. Without stronger guarantees, councils warn that some could become insolvent when the debt override ends in April 2028.

Special educational needs and disability, or SEND, support helps children and young people whose conditions affect learning, communication or access to education. The article gives examples including speech and learning difficulties, autism and ADHD. Councils and schools provide support, while councils carry legal responsibilities for arranging it.

An education, health and care plan, or EHCP, is a legal document agreed between a family and a local authority in England. It details the support a child or young person needs. The plan can provide access to extra funding or a place in a special school. EHCPs cover children and young people up to age 25.

These plans matter because they formalise a child’s entitlement to help. Demand for them has risen sharply. In January, 718,000 young people had EHCPs, following a 12.5% annual increase. That growth is putting pressure on councils, schools and the wider public-service system.

Demand has reached an unprecedented level. In January, 718,000 young people in England had education, health and care plans. These plans formally set out the support required for children and young people with special educational needs or disabilities.

The total increased by 12.5% over the previous 12 months. The article says this was the largest year-on-year increase since EHCPs were introduced in 2014. Official data also identifies another 1.3 million young people as having special needs, although they do not necessarily have an EHCP.

The pressure is expected to continue. Many councils anticipate annual increases in the double digits for the next three years. Several project that, at current rates, nearly one in 10 pupils could have an EHCP by 2029. The Fonagy report found that EHCP growth had substantially outpaced education-system capacity.

More parents and schools are seeking EHCPs partly because they fear the government’s planned SEND changes could make formal support less certain. An EHCP can secure specific help, extra funding or a special-school place. The rush has therefore added to the number of statutory requests and assessments councils must handle.

Councils still have to meet legal duties when demand rises. The article says the growth in EHCPs has substantially outpaced the education system’s capacity. Of 105,300 statutory assessments carried out in 2024, 94% resulted in the award of an EHCP, although the source text ends before giving further detail.

Costs rise faster than funding because councils must arrange increasingly expensive support, including specialist provision. The County Councils Network says funding has not kept pace with statutory demand. Hampshire, for example, forecasts a £200m deficit for this year, while several other councils expect overspends above £100m.

If SEND debts keep growing, councils may struggle to remain solvent. The debts are currently kept off town-hall balance sheets through a special Treasury override, but they are due to return to the books in April 2028. Some authorities say even retaining 10% of their SEND debts could threaten solvency.

The pressure can force councils into difficult choices. They may have to protect SEND spending while reducing or restricting other frontline services. The County Councils Network says taxpayers and local communities would ultimately carry the consequences. Publicly available reports already show several councils forecasting overspends above £100m in 2026-27.

Children and families could also experience direct harm. The article warns of increasingly long waits for support and educational outcomes that continue to flatline. Councils are seeking a ministerial guarantee to cover future debt. Without one, the end of the override could expose a large financial gap.

The government wants to gradually replace England’s current SEND system with a more inclusive approach. The central idea is to improve support within mainstream schools. If ordinary schools can meet more children’s needs effectively, fewer families may need an EHCP to secure assistance.

Under the proposed model, mainstream schools would provide support for conditions such as learning difficulties, autism or ADHD. The article says this approach could, in principle, remove the need for an EHCP in some cases. It therefore aims to reduce pressure on formal plans and specialist provision, although the article does not give detailed implementation measures.

The reforms are being introduced while demand is accelerating. Parents and schools appear to be seeking EHCPs now because they are uncertain about future arrangements. The government-commissioned Fonagy report found that demand is unsustainable without new ways to manage pressure on public services. The reforms’ success will depend on whether mainstream capacity grows fast enough.

Councils can become financially overwhelmed when the law requires them to provide support regardless of whether their budgets cover the cost. SEND duties are statutory, so rising demand cannot simply be refused because funding is limited. The council must arrange the support, creating a gap when government money falls short.

The mechanism is straightforward. More children receive EHCPs, and each plan may require extra funding or a specialist school place. Those commitments can cost more than the money available. The County Councils Network says councils have accumulated debt because statutory demand has grown rapidly without funding keeping pace, not because councils chose to overspend.

That gap becomes dangerous when it accumulates over several years. More than £5bn in historic debt has been cleared, yet councils expect to rebuild it by April and potentially double it by 2028. The temporary Treasury override currently keeps debts off council balance sheets, but it is due to end in April 2028.