India’s food inflation surges to 7.74%, weak monsoon spikes prices amid El Niño risks

India’s food inflation rose from 5.97% in August to 7.74% in September. The main immediate driver was a sharp rise in vegetable and spice prices, especially onions, ginger, and garlic. Weak monsoon rainfall also raised fears about future crop supplies.

Onion inflation more than doubled over the year, reaching 108.09% in September from 48.78% in August. Garlic production in Rajasthan was estimated at only about 60% of the previous year’s level. Ginger faced domestic supply losses, storage damage, and stronger international prices after a crop failure in Nigeria.

The pressure extended beyond vegetables. Rice, tur dal, and groundnut oil were also more expensive than a year earlier. Economists linked the increase to global commodity prices, higher oil-related input costs, and a low statistical base. Weak rainfall could keep food inflation firm in coming months and possibly beyond 2027 if El Niño persists.

The sharpest increase was in onions. Their inflation rate reached 108.09% in September, compared with 48.78% in August, meaning prices were more than twice as high as a year earlier. Ginger inflation stood at 62.85%, while garlic inflation reached 54.62%.

Staples also became costlier. Average retail rice prices were ₹46.43 per kilogram on September 24, up from ₹43.15 a year earlier. Tur dal rose to ₹125.18 per kilogram from ₹116.12. Packed groundnut oil climbed to ₹210.04 per kilogram, compared with ₹188.53 previously.

These figures show that food-price pressure was broadening, but not evenly. Lemon inflation was 36.41%, while potato prices were 11.50% lower and tomato prices were 8.62% lower than a year earlier. Supply conditions, international prices, and input costs differed across products, producing sharply different outcomes.

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific. It occurs every two to seven years and can last up to 12 months. The warming changes broader rainfall and temperature patterns, making seasonal weather less predictable.

For India, the key concern is a weaker monsoon. The article links the current El Niño risk with deficient rainfall and stresses that a particularly strong event can reduce monsoon strength. Less rain can leave fields, reservoirs, and soil moisture depleted, especially in regions that depend heavily on seasonal rainfall.

That matters because the monsoon supports agricultural production and the transition to later crops. India recorded its lowest June–September rainfall in more than a decade, while several agricultural states faced extreme drought conditions. The World Meteorological Organisation warned that this year’s El Niño may be exceptionally strong, raising concerns about food supplies and prices through 2027.

The article does not provide India’s rainfall total in millimetres. It reports that June–September rainfall was the country’s lowest in more than a decade. India Meteorological Department data ranked the season fourth-lowest since 2001 and 13th-lowest since 1901.

The shortfall matters because crops need adequate moisture during growth and planting. Parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana were facing extreme drought conditions. Low rainfall can reduce soil moisture and reservoir levels, leaving farmers with less water and increasing uncertainty about crop output.

The consequences may spread across several foods. Economists identified bajra, tur, maize, groundnut, rice, and soybean as vulnerable where rainfall deficits meet limited irrigation. Lower production can tighten supplies and lift prices. The weak monsoon also threatens the transition to the rabi season, increasing the risk that food inflation remains firm in the coming months.

The rabi season is the next major test for Indian food prices. Farmers sow rabi crops after the monsoon and harvest them in spring. Weak rainfall leaves less water in the soil and reservoirs, while elevated temperatures can further stress crops before they mature.

The article identifies bajra, tur, maize, groundnut, rice, and soybean as vulnerable in areas where rainfall deficits coincide with limited irrigation. Low soil moisture can reduce planting success and yields. If harvests fall, less produce reaches markets, creating tighter supplies and upward price pressure.

Food inflation is therefore likely to remain firm in the coming months, according to Crisil’s Dipti Deshpande. The risk is not limited to one vegetable. It could affect staples and crops across regions. Economists also warned that adverse weather and El Niño-related conditions may keep food-price pressure elevated into 2027 if the weather pattern persists.

Food prices do not move together because each crop has its own supply conditions. Onions and garlic became much more expensive after production and availability tightened. Potato and tomato prices, by contrast, were lower than a year earlier, showing that inflation was uneven across the food basket.

Garlic production in Rajasthan was estimated at about 60% of the previous year’s level. Ginger also suffered from poor-quality stored crops and losses. Onions faced a particularly sharp price increase. These supply shortages meant less produce was available to meet household demand, pushing prices higher.

Potato inflation remained negative at 11.50%, and tomato prices were 8.62% lower than a year earlier. The article does not identify one specific cause for those declines. Their outcomes likely reflected different crop and market conditions, while global prices, exports, storage, rainfall, and input costs affected other foods. Prices therefore rose sharply for some items but fell for others.

Supply and demand set the basic direction of prices. When harvests fall but households still need food, limited supplies can produce higher prices. When supply is plentiful or demand is weaker, prices may fall. The article’s onion, garlic, potato, and tomato figures show how differently individual markets can behave.

Global commodity prices also affect India, especially for edible oils. Higher crude oil prices raise transport, fuel, fertiliser, and other production costs. These expenses can pass through the food chain. Imports also influence domestic availability and costs. Rice, wheat, maize, edible oils, and sugar were all part of a near-synchronised global price rise.

The statistical base is the earlier price level used for annual comparison. A low base can magnify the inflation rate when last year’s price was unusually low. It does not necessarily mean prices rose sharply in the latest month. India’s September increase reflected this effect alongside supply pressures and global costs.