A year after Madagascar's Gen Z protests and Rajoelina’s ouster, little promised change

The protests forced President Andry Rajoelina from office on 12 October 2025. After eighteen days of demonstrations, he stepped down and left Madagascar aboard a French military aircraft. His departure created a political vacuum and ended his presidency, at least inside the country.

The military quickly filled that vacuum. Colonel Michael Randrianirina, commander of the Capsat military unit, was installed as “President of the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar.” His government promised to organize a political transition and hold elections within two years.

One year later, Rajoelina remains in exile, spending most of his time in Dubai. Randrianirina’s military-backed government is still overseeing the transition, including work on a new constitution. The promised refoundation has stalled, however, and young activists say the basic demands behind the protests remain unmet.

Madagascar’s demonstrations lasted eighteen days before President Andry Rajoelina stepped down on 12 October 2025. The protests were youth-led, with generation Z activists playing a prominent role. The article gives no crowd estimate, so their exact size cannot be measured from the available information.

The immediate trigger was not an abstract political dispute. Protesters were reacting to chronic cuts in water and electricity. These shortages affected basic daily life and helped turn frustration into organized street action. Young people used their collective voice to demand practical improvements and wider political change.

The protests achieved a major political result by ending Rajoelina’s presidency. Yet, one year later, activists say the basic demands have still not been met. The continuing gap between the protests’ impact and people’s daily conditions helps explain why they question the military government’s promised refoundation.

In this context, a political “refoundation” means rebuilding the country’s governing system after a crisis of political authority. It suggests more than replacing one president. It involves creating a new constitutional framework and establishing a process that can lead to legitimate elections and a stable government.

The military-backed authorities use the term for their transition after Rajoelina’s departure. Colonel Michael Randrianirina was installed as “President of the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar.” National consultation committees are involved in drafting a new constitution, and the government has promised to put that text to a referendum.

The idea matters because the transition began through military intervention rather than a normal election. The government promised elections within two years and has linked the constitutional process to presidential elections scheduled for late 2027. Activists, however, say there is little evidence that this promised political rebuilding is advancing.

After taking power, the military-backed government promised to remake Madagascar’s political system rather than simply manage a temporary change of leadership. Its central commitments were a political “refoundation,” a new constitution, and elections within two years. These promises were meant to answer the demands raised during the youth-led protests.

The constitutional process illustrates the problem. Activists’ groups have seats on national consultation committees, but drafting the new text has stalled. The government says it wants the constitution in place before presidential elections scheduled for late 2027. The proposals are due to be presented in May and then submitted to a referendum.

Young activists nevertheless see little evidence of meaningful change. Mihary Rakotondravelo said the basic demands still had not been met. Their criticism reflects both continuing frustration over the original water and electricity problems and concern that the transition’s political promises remain mostly unfinished.

The proposed process has three linked stages. First, national consultation committees are involved in drafting a new constitution. The committees include a group represented by activist Mihary Rakotondravelo. This is intended to give the transition a broader consultation process, although the drafting has stalled.

Second, the proposals are due to be presented in May. They would then be put to a referendum, allowing voters to approve or reject the proposed constitutional text. The article does not state the referendum’s exact date or explain its detailed voting rules. It does state that the military government wants the new text completed before the next presidential vote.

Third, presidential elections are scheduled for late 2027. The government initially pledged elections within two years, while the later timetable places the presidential election in late 2027. Together, the consultation, referendum, and election are supposed to move Madagascar from military-backed transition toward a new constitutional order.

SADC is the regional bloc that has become an outside pressure point in Madagascar’s crisis. In August, it called for a “return to constitutional normalcy.” That intervention matters because the country’s current transition began when the military installed Colonel Michael Randrianirina after Rajoelina’s departure.

The article connects SADC’s call to the government’s timetable. The authorities say a new constitution should be presented in May and put to a referendum. They also plan presidential elections for late 2027. These steps are presented as the route toward ending the exceptional transition and restoring a constitutional political process.

In general, constitutional normalcy means government operating under an accepted constitution, with authority returning through legitimate civilian institutions and elections. The article does not list every condition SADC requires. It does show that regional pressure is pushing Madagascar toward a defined constitutional process rather than an open-ended military-backed government.

A constitution is the basic legal framework of a country. It defines how leaders are chosen, what powers government institutions have, and what rights citizens hold. It also sets procedures for elections and limits officials through rules they are expected to obey. A constitution can therefore turn political authority into a lawful, predictable system.

For Madagascar, this matters because Colonel Michael Randrianirina was installed by the military after Rajoelina left office. A credible constitution should clarify who may govern, how elections must work, and which institution can challenge abuses. It should also establish civilian control of the military, so armed forces remain subject to elected authorities rather than deciding who rules.

The article says a new constitution is being drafted, with proposals due for a referendum before presidential elections planned for late 2027. It does not describe the proposed text. Its success will depend on whether the process produces accepted rules and a genuine path from military-backed transition to legitimate civilian government.