Netanyahu, Eisenkot blocs struggle to secure majority, raising fears of another election deadlock

Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot can each lead a political bloc without either bloc winning enough seats to govern. Israel’s voters elect parties to the 120-seat Knesset, not the prime minister directly. The prime minister must then assemble a coalition with at least 61 seats.

Current polling places Netanyahu’s bloc at roughly 52-53 seats. The opposition-aligned bloc, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has also fallen to about 52-53 seats. Neither side therefore reaches a governing majority by itself.

The remaining seats are expected to go largely to Arab-led parties. That creates a divided Knesset, with both major camps needing additional support or a political arrangement. If no workable coalition emerges, the election can produce another deadlock rather than a clear government. The article also notes that Netanyahu’s bloc faces extra danger because some right-wing parties may fall below the electoral threshold.

The electoral threshold is the minimum share of the national vote a party must win to enter the Knesset. In these elections, that minimum is 3.25%. The rule matters because Israel distributes seats among parties, but excludes parties that do not reach the required percentage.

The article describes 3.25% as roughly equivalent to four Knesset seats. A party such as Ofer Winter’s new party, polling at around four to five seats, is therefore vulnerable. A small change in support could push it below the line and remove it from the Knesset entirely.

This threshold shapes coalition arithmetic. Parties that clear it can contribute seats to a bloc, while parties below it contribute none. The article says votes for parties that fail are wasted. That could reduce Netanyahu’s available right-wing seats, especially because both Winter’s party and Religious Zionism are near the threshold.

Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats, so a governing majority requires 61. That is one seat more than half the chamber. Because the prime minister must command this majority through a coalition, seat totals matter more than simply finishing first in the election.

Netanyahu’s bloc is currently projected at around 52-53 seats. Even the higher figure leaves it about eight seats short of the 61-seat target. Those missing seats would need to come from smaller parties or another political arrangement after the election.

The shortfall is especially difficult because some right-wing allies may not enter the Knesset. Religious Zionism is polling at roughly five to six seats but has often been below the threshold, while Winter’s party is polling around four to five seats. If either fails, Netanyahu loses potential coalition partners and the votes supporting them do not convert into seats.

When a party falls below Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold, it receives no Knesset seats. Its votes are effectively wasted for the purpose of parliamentary representation. The party may have meaningful support nationwide, but that support does not add to its political bloc.

The article highlights two vulnerable right-wing parties. Ofer Winter’s new party is polling at around four to five seats, while Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism is polling at roughly five to six seats and has often been below the threshold. Either party could lose all representation if support slips.

That matters because both parties lean toward Netanyahu. If they clear the threshold, their seats could help his bloc move toward the 61-seat majority. If one or both fail, those votes cannot be transferred to Likud or another allied party. The resulting seat loss could leave Netanyahu’s bloc even further from forming a government.

Smaller parties matter because Israel’s prime minister must assemble a coalition, not simply win the most votes. Netanyahu’s Likud list cannot govern alone. It needs allied parties to add enough Knesset seats to reach the 61-seat majority.

Religious Zionism and Ofer Winter’s party are especially important because both are associated with the right-wing camp. Religious Zionism is polling at roughly five to six seats, while Winter’s party is near four to five. Those seats could make a significant difference when Netanyahu’s bloc is currently projected at only 52-53 seats.

Their separation creates a direct electoral risk. Netanyahu previously helped bring Itamar Ben-Gvir and Smotrich together on a joint list, reducing the chance that either would fall below the threshold. This time, Religious Zionism did not merge with Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit or Winter’s Amcha Yisrael. If one party fails, its votes do not strengthen Netanyahu’s other allies.

Arab-led parties become potential kingmakers when neither major bloc can reach 61 seats alone. The article projects both Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition-aligned bloc at roughly 52-53 seats. The remaining seats are expected to go to Arab-led parties, giving them a decisive position in the parliamentary arithmetic.

The mechanism is straightforward. If an Arab-led party or unified Arab bloc supports a governing arrangement, its seats could help one side cross the 61-seat threshold. The article says three Arab parties have joined a unified Joint List, strengthening the Arab political bloc and helping one party avoid falling below the threshold.

However, the question’s condition matters. If both major camps refuse to include Arab-led parties, those seats cannot complete a coalition. They would remain outside the governing bloc, leaving neither side with 61. Arab parties could still be kingmakers politically, because their inclusion or exclusion may determine whether the deadlock is resolved.

In Israel’s system, voters choose parties for a 120-seat Knesset rather than directly electing a prime minister. Seats are distributed among parties that clear the 3.25% threshold. This creates a multi-party chamber, where even the largest party may lack a majority.

For example, Netanyahu’s Likud leads a right-wing bloc projected at about 52-53 seats. The opposition-aligned bloc is also around 52-53. Each would need smaller parties to reach 61. Parties can bargain over coalition membership, but disagreements, personal tensions, or ideological differences can prevent an agreement.

A direct presidential-style election can produce one nationally elected executive without requiring this exact parliamentary coalition. Israel’s method instead makes government formation depend on post-election negotiations. If no bloc reaches 61 and potential partners remain divided or excluded, the result can be a governing deadlock. The article’s divided right wing and strengthened Arab bloc illustrate how that arithmetic can keep the outcome unsettled.