Pak to face 22% water shortage. India's IWT freezing isn't to blame

A projected 22% irrigation water shortage means Punjab and Sindh may receive 22% less water than the amount planned for their Rabi-season farming needs. Rabi runs from October 1 to March 31. Wheat, barley, mustard and gram are among the crops planted then, so the timing is especially important.

The shortage affects Punjab, Pakistan’s agricultural heartland, and Sindh, another major farming province. IRSA approved allocations of 15.564 million acre-feet for Punjab and 11.748 MAF for Sindh, after comparing expected supplies with agreed requirements and operating conditions.

The immediate concern is reduced water for sowing and crop growth. The article says the shortage threatens to further weaken Pakistan’s wheat harvest and food security. It does not provide a final estimate for lost production or grain imports, but lower irrigation availability could make the Rabi crop more vulnerable.

Pakistan’s reservoirs held 9.343 million acre-feet of water on September 30, just before the Rabi season. Officials had expected storage to reach 12.014 MAF. That meant the country entered the winter-crop season with 2.671 MAF less water than anticipated.

The lower storage level reduced the amount available for irrigation when farmers in Punjab and Sindh were preparing to sow wheat and other crops. Storage matters because reservoirs help carry water from periods of higher inflow into later periods when farms need dependable supplies.

The article links the shortfall to several factors. More than 3 MAF could not be stored at Tarbela because of filling restrictions during construction. Constraints there also forced higher releases from Mangla Dam, making it harder for Mangla to replenish before Rabi. These storage limits compounded lower river inflows.

IRSA attributed the projected shortage to Pakistan’s water conditions and infrastructure constraints. Actual inflows during the April-to-September 2026 Kharif season were 8% below projections and 22% below the previous year. Reservoir storage also fell short of expectations, leaving less water for Rabi irrigation.

Storage problems added to the pressure. More than 3 MAF could not be stored at Tarbela because WAPDA imposed filling restrictions during construction. IRSA also cited delays to Tunnel 4 Low-Level Outlet and Tunnel 5 Hydropower Project. Both were supposed to be completed by March 2025.

India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty did not stop river water flowing into Pakistan. It suspended treaty obligations, including routine hydrological data-sharing and advance notifications. Based on the reported evidence, IRSA therefore connected the shortage to inflows, storage and delayed infrastructure rather than a physical cutoff by India.

The Indus Waters Treaty is the water agreement India and Pakistan signed in 1960. In the article’s context, it provides obligations connected with managing the Indus river system and cross-border water information. Pakistan has accused India of denying its rightful share after New Delhi placed the treaty in abeyance.

Putting the treaty in abeyance means India suspended treaty obligations rather than physically blocking the rivers. Those suspended obligations include routine hydrological data-sharing and advance notifications. The article says water continues to flow across the border.

This distinction matters during the reported shortage. IRSA identified lower inflows, inadequate reservoir storage and delayed infrastructure as the causes of the projected 22% cut for Punjab and Sindh. The article therefore presents the treaty suspension as a change in cooperation and information-sharing, not the direct removal of Pakistan’s river supply.

A 22% irrigation shortage arrives during Rabi, when farmers plant wheat and other winter crops. Less available water can make it harder to sow and support those crops across Punjab and Sindh. This matters nationally because more than 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on irrigation fed by the Indus Basin.

Punjab and Sindh were assigned the shortage because IRSA’s approved plan projected insufficient supplies for those provinces under agreed inflows and other operating conditions. Their allocations were set at 15.564 MAF and 11.748 MAF. Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were exempted from supply cuts in this decision.

The article directly says the shortage threatens to further weaken wheat harvests and food security. The supplied text does not state how much production could be lost or whether Pakistan will import more grain. Those outcomes are therefore possible concerns, not quantified conclusions in the article.

The Indus River System Authority, or IRSA, is Pakistan’s government body responsible for regulating and overseeing water distribution from the Indus River system among the provinces. It assesses expected inflows, storage and operating conditions, then helps set provincial allocations for irrigation.

After an October 7 meeting, IRSA’s Advisory Committee approved a projected 22% shortage for Punjab and Sindh. Punjab was assigned 15.564 MAF and Sindh 11.748 MAF. Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were assigned 1.171 MAF and 0.710 MAF and were exempted from supply cuts.

IRSA said the shortage was calculated using agreed inflows and other system operating parameters. Internal assessments had projected shortages as high as 26%, but objections from Sindh helped reduce the official estimate. IRSA said the figure could be reviewed periodically as conditions changed.

Farm water availability starts with natural inflows into the river system. The article identifies rainfall, snow and glacier melting, along with regional temperature, as factors affecting those inflows. These sources feed rivers during the year, but their amounts can differ from forecasts and from one season to the next.

Dams then store part of the river water for later use. Tarbela and Mangla are central examples in the article. More than 3 MAF could not be stored at Tarbela because of construction-related filling restrictions. Higher releases from Mangla also hindered its replenishment before Rabi. Irrigation systems distribute available river and reservoir water to farms.

The result is a chain: natural inflows determine supply, dams preserve part of it, and irrigation networks deliver it to crops. If inflows fall or storage projects are constrained or delayed, less water remains for winter planting. That is how Pakistan reached its projected Rabi shortage.