Iran steps up Hormuz surveillance: Attacks soar, oil flows crash again

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. It matters because ships carrying about 20 percent of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas use it.

Before the war began on February 28, roughly 125 large commercial vessels crossed it daily. When Iran effectively closed the strait, tanker traffic fell sharply, showing how one passage can disrupt energy markets. US Navy escorts later helped Gulf oil flows recover above 81 percent of pre-war levels in September.

That recovery remains fragile. Kpler recorded 10 tanker strikes between September 28 and October 4, plus another on October 5. UKMTO recorded 15 further attacks from October 6 to October 14, including 11 within four days. The result is higher insurance, crew bonuses, and oil prices, while governments and traders face continuing uncertainty.

Iran has expanded its monitoring of Hormuz with new units that track enemy activity and shipping in real time. It also demands that vessels keep transponders active and coordinate with Iranian forces for safe passage. This gives Tehran closer oversight and more chances to challenge ships it considers noncompliant.

The new tactics also change both the type and pace of attacks. An Iranian official told Reuters these methods began about 10 days before the report. Kpler recorded 10 tankers struck between September 28 and October 4, followed by another strike on October 5. The reported pattern combines surveillance with pressure: drone overflights, targeted tracking, and radio calls to merchant ships.

The Joint Maritime Information Center still rated the shipping threat “severe,” its second-highest level. UKMTO recorded 15 additional attacks between October 6 and 14, including a container ship and tanker hit by unknown projectiles. Together, the tactics make passage less predictable, raise insurance and crew costs, and threaten oil flows.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow, vital route for global energy. Before the war, it handled about 125 large commercial vessels daily. Shipments through it represented roughly 20 percent of worldwide crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Recently, reports documented at least 26 attack incidents, although that total is not necessarily 26 different ships. Kpler counted 10 tankers struck from September 28 to October 4, plus another strike on October 5. UKMTO recorded 15 further attacks from October 6 to 14.

These attacks matter because Iran’s surveillance, harassment, and restrictions make passage riskier. They raise insurance costs, require crew bonuses, and can slow or reduce exports. In September, Gulf oil flows through Hormuz, excluding Iran, recovered to more than 81 percent of pre-war levels. Renewed attacks threaten that recovery and keep energy markets vulnerable.

Rising attacks have disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial energy route. Before the war, it carried about 20 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies. In September, Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovered above 81 percent of pre-war levels. US Navy escorts helped tankers resume crossings. However, increased attacks have since caused oil transit to fall again. The danger raises costs even when cargoes move. Ship crews receive large bonuses, insurance remains very expensive, and Gulf states may be paying Iran for safe passage. These costs keep crude prices high. The article does not provide a new exact price or flow percentage after the latest decline. However, it records 26 attacks or strikes between September 28 and October 14, including 11 in four days. Unless security improves, reduced flows and higher transport costs could continue supporting elevated oil prices.

Iran can disrupt shipping because its forces operate alongside one of the world’s narrowest vital sea passages. The Strait connects Gulf oil producers with global markets. Threats there can delay or deter ships without stopping every vessel.

After the war began on February 28, Iran effectively closed the strait and attacked vessels that violated its restrictions. Its Revolutionary Guard has used drones, surveillance, radio warnings, and projectiles. New navy units monitor traffic and demand ships keep transponders on. These actions raise insurance costs and require US Navy escorts, making passage riskier and more expensive.

That leverage remains powerful because the strait normally carries about 20 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies. Kpler recorded 10 tanker strikes from September 28 to October 4, followed by another on October 5. UKMTO recorded 15 additional attacks through October 14, leaving the shipping threat severe and oil flows vulnerable.

The article mainly describes escorted shipping; established alternatives include pipelines to ports outside Hormuz, reducing reliance on the chokepoint. These routes matter because they keep exports moving when attacks, blockades, or insurance costs make passage dangerous. They cannot fully replace Hormuz’s capacity, especially for liquefied natural gas, so exporters often combine them with escorts.

Saudi Arabia can move crude through its East-West pipeline to Red Sea ports. The UAE uses the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline to reach Fujairah, while Iraq can export some oil through Turkey’s Ceyhan route. During this crisis, US Navy-escorted tankers helped Gulf exporters move more oil through Hormuz itself, rather than bypassing it.

That arrangement shows the practical limit: alternatives are partial, slower, and costly. In September, non-Iranian Gulf flows recovered above 81 percent of pre-war levels, but insurance stayed high and crews received large bonuses. Exporters therefore need pipelines, reserve storage, and escorted shipping together; none offers a complete substitute for the strait.

Crude oil is unrefined petroleum pumped from underground and processed into fuels, plastics, and other products. Liquefied natural gas, or LNG, is natural gas cooled into a liquid so it can travel efficiently by ship. Together, they power transport, electricity, heating, and industry worldwide.

Before the war described, the Strait of Hormuz handled about 125 large commercial vessels daily. Shipments through it represented about 20 percent of global crude and LNG supplies. When attacks or blockades interrupt passage, less fuel reaches buyers, raising prices, transport costs, and insurance bills.

The article reports Gulf oil flows through Hormuz recovered above 81 percent of pre-war levels in September, excluding Iran. Yet attacks later surged, including ten tankers struck between September 28 and October 4. Such instability can strain household budgets and businesses worldwide, even far from the region.