Trump's diesel deal with Russia is unlikely to significantly lower global fuel prices despite expectations of rapid relief

The agreement would temporarily suspend some US sanctions on Russia and allow Russian diesel imports, according to Donald Trump’s October 9 announcement. Russia confirmed the arrangement, calling fuel supplies beneficial for Russia, the United States, and global energy markets. The deal matters because diesel prices have risen sharply in the US and many EU countries.

Its scale is small compared with demand. A promised shipment of 2.2 million barrels would cover less than one day of US diesel use, estimated at roughly 4 million barrels daily. Even the total announced volume of 35.8 million barrels would cover only about nine days. Russia also faces domestic shortages and refinery damage from Ukrainian drone attacks.

The agreement therefore cannot quickly repair global supply bottlenecks. Refineries around the Gulf region remain disrupted, and shipping through key waterways is costly and risky. Experts quoted by DW expect diesel prices to remain high unless conditions improve in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Diesel is a liquid fuel made by refining crude oil. It powers many trucks, buses, ships, farm machines, generators, and some cars. Crude oil is the raw petroleum mixture extracted from the ground. It is not ready for ordinary diesel engines because it contains many different substances that must be separated and processed.

A refinery converts crude into useful products, including diesel, gasoline, and other fuels. This creates an important supply link. Even when crude oil is available, damaged or disrupted refineries can reduce diesel production. The article reports that Gulf-region refineries have suffered disruptions or damage, helping push diesel prices higher.

Diesel prices therefore depend on more than crude oil prices. They also reflect refinery capacity, available inventories, shipping conditions, insurance, and demand. In the article, refined-product flows through the Strait of Hormuz were far below prewar levels, showing how fuel supply can tighten after crude production or transport is interrupted.

The proposed Russian delivery is small relative to the United States’ diesel market. The article cites a promised shipment of 2.2 million barrels, while US diesel demand is roughly 4 million barrels each day. That means the initial shipment would not cover a full day of American consumption.

Trump’s announced volumes together total 35.8 million barrels. At the article’s estimated demand rate, that amount would cover about nine days of US domestic use. The comparison shows why the agreement is unlikely to transform prices. It adds some supply, but not enough to replace a major global shortfall or restore normal market conditions.

The limitation is even clearer because Russia is no longer exporting as freely as before. Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted Russian refineries, and Russia is experiencing fuel shortages at home. As a result, the promised shipments may be difficult to expand quickly, while global bottlenecks continue in refineries and shipping routes.

Wars raise diesel prices by attacking several parts of the supply chain at once. Fighting can damage refineries, interrupt production, and make ports and shipping routes unsafe. The article identifies the war in Iran and simultaneous disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb as the main reasons prices are high.

The figures show the mechanism clearly. About 13.5 million barrels of crude oil were again moving through Hormuz daily, but refined-product flows were only around 677,000 barrels per day, compared with 3.6 million before the war. Gulf refineries also suffered damage. Fuel shipments became more expensive, less secure, and harder to arrange.

Those shortages meet continuing demand, pushing prices upward. Transport through shadow fleets requires costly and difficult insurance. Russia’s refinery problems add another constraint. Experts therefore see few ways to resolve the bottlenecks unless conditions improve in Ukraine and the Middle East, allowing production and shipping to recover.

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Both are strategic routes linking major energy-producing regions with global markets. The article identifies disruption through both waterways as a central cause of high diesel prices.

When ships cannot travel normally, fuel deliveries become slower, less secure, and more expensive. Traders may need alternative routes, additional security, or difficult insurance arrangements. These costs are added to the fuel’s final price. Delays can also leave regional buyers with less diesel available, tightening supply further.

The article reports that roughly 13.5 million barrels of crude oil were again moving through Hormuz daily. However, refined-product flows were only about 677,000 barrels per day, down from 3.6 million before the war. This gap shows that restoring crude movement alone does not quickly restore diesel supplies.

Russia cannot quickly repeat its former diesel-export performance because its refining system is under pressure. The article says Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted Russian refineries, while Russia is also facing fuel shortages domestically. Damaged facilities produce less refined fuel, leaving fewer barrels available for export.

Russia’s market position has already changed. The United States became the world’s largest diesel exporter in 2025, shipping an average of 1.26 million barrels per day, or about 15.4% of global diesel exports. Russia fell to second place with a 9.5% share, even before the major refinery attacks mentioned in the article.

This means sanctions relief alone cannot guarantee a flood of cheap Russian diesel. Moscow must balance foreign sales against domestic needs, and damaged refineries restrict production. The article also notes that Russia would normally export almost ten times the announced shipment volume if its refinery fleet were not being targeted.

Refineries turn crude oil into diesel, so their capacity sets how much finished fuel reaches markets. Storage capacity determines whether producers can hold excess supply and release it later. Shipping then connects regions, but transport, insurance, security, and route disruptions add costs. Together, these factors shape the price buyers face around the world.

The article gives a clear example from the United States. It says the country lacks enough diesel storage capacity to restrict exports without reducing production. Lower production could cause prices to rise again. An export ban would also hurt Latin American and European Union buyers, which increasingly rely on US diesel after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Supply and demand amplify these effects. Damaged refineries and disrupted waterways reduce supply, while users still need diesel. Prices rise until demand and available supply balance. ING economist Carsten Brzeski says restrictions would redistribute the shortage, not solve it. Global prices could keep rising while weaker margins cause refineries to scale back.