US elections: Races to watch in the 2026 midterms

US midterm elections take place every two years, between presidential elections. They matter because voters choose members of Congress and often use the results to express approval or disapproval of the president’s conduct. The article describes the 2026 contest as especially important during Donald Trump’s first presidential term.

On 3 November, voters will choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives. They will also contest about one-third of the 100 Senate seats. House representatives serve two-year terms, while senators serve six-year terms.

The elections could change which party controls Congress. Democrats are seeking to improve their position in a Senate currently divided 47-53 against them, while Republicans hold a 218-214 House majority. The article highlights races in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Ohio, but the supplied text does not identify specific House races.

The scale of the midterms comes from the different structures of Congress. Every House seat is contested every two years, so all 435 seats appear on the ballot in each midterm election. Senate elections are staggered, meaning only about one-third of the 100 seats are contested at a time.

The terms explain this difference. House representatives serve two-year terms, so every member must regularly face voters. Senators serve six-year terms, and their elections are spread across different cycles. Senators also have a more senior role and are generally more prominent public figures.

The 2026 contests could still reshape national power. Democrats currently trail Republicans 47-53 in the Senate, while Republicans hold a narrow 218-214 House majority. The article identifies five Senate races to watch, including contests in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Ohio.

The article identifies five Senate races as especially worth watching because Democrats hope to improve their position. Michigan is significant because it is an unpredictable swing state, and Abdul el-Sayed could become the first Muslim senator. Texas matters because Democrat James Talarico is challenging Trump-backed Ken Paxton in a traditionally Republican state.

Maine features veteran Republican Susan Collins against Democrat Troy Jackson, whose campaign opposes US military aid to Israel. Iowa pits Democrat Josh Turek against Republican Ashley Hinson in a race that leans Republican but could become a toss-up. Ohio is holding a special election for JD Vance’s former Senate term, with Sherrod Brown ahead of Jon Husted but the contest still uncertain.

These races reflect wider national debates over Israel, Iran, international-law concerns and Muslim civil rights. The supplied excerpt does not name any specific House contests, although it reports that Republicans hold a 218-214 House majority.

A few seats matter because the House majority is extremely narrow. Republicans currently hold 218 seats to Democrats’ 214, leaving only a small difference between the parties. The article says Democrats need to flip at least three to five seats to have measurable influence over the lower chamber.

Winning those seats could give Democrats greater power over the House’s direction. A majority generally controls which legislation receives attention, how debates proceed and which party leads committees. That makes even a modest shift important when the existing margin is only four seats.

The result would also affect the wider balance of power in Washington. Democrats are already trying to improve a 47-53 Senate position, while the administration’s policies on immigration, Israel, Iran and Muslim communities have made the elections politically consequential. The article does not identify specific House races in the supplied excerpt.

Abdul el-Sayed’s Michigan campaign could mark a historic change in Muslim representation in Congress. The article says no Muslim has ever served in the US Senate. A victory would therefore give Muslim Americans representation in the upper chamber for the first time.

The race is also notable because el-Sayed has never held elected office, yet he has become a powerful media presence. Republican Mike Rogers has Trump’s endorsement and support from pro-Israeli lobbying groups. Trump has attacked el-Sayed by calling him a “radical jihadist” and saying he would refer to him as “Mohammed.”

The article says the race currently leans in el-Sayed’s favour. It also distinguishes his potential breakthrough from Zohran Mamdani’s election as New York City’s first Muslim mayor: el-Sayed was born in the United States, which the article says would make him eligible for a presidential run someday.

Every state has two senators because the Senate represents states equally. The article explicitly says this rule applies regardless of a state’s size or population. A small state therefore has the same number of senators as a much larger state.

The House follows a different principle. Its seats are based on population distribution, so states with more people receive more House representatives. This makes the lower chamber more directly tied to the number of residents in each state. Representatives serve two-year terms, while senators serve six-year terms.

The two systems shape election strategy and political power differently. Senate races can affect the balance between parties even when they occur in small states. House races occur across all 435 districts and are more closely linked to population. The article also notes that neither chamber has term limits.

A midterm referendum is not a separate vote on the president. It means congressional results are widely interpreted as a judgment on the White House. Voters can use House and Senate races to signal whether they approve of the administration’s policies and conduct.

The first midterms of a presidency carry particular weight because they are the first nationwide congressional elections during a new administration. In this case, the article links the stakes to Trump’s actions involving refugees and immigrants, criticism of Israel, pro-Palestine sentiment, Muslim communities and the war on Iran. These policies have dominated national headlines.

The article reports that only three in ten Americans approve of Trump’s conduct during his first two years, according to Pew Research. The results could therefore alter congressional control. Democrats are seeking gains against a 47-53 Senate deficit and a Republican 218-214 House majority.