Somalia faces growing hunger fears as El Niño strengthens

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern linked to unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It changes atmospheric circulation, which can shift normal rainfall patterns far beyond the Pacific. Its effects differ by region. In Somalia, the current super El Niño is raising fears of heavier rains, swollen rivers, and flooding. That matters because many communities depend on farming and already face serious food-security risks.

The article gives a clear chain of risk. Heavy rain can make rivers burst their banks and wash over farmland. Farmers may lose planted crops, while damaged fields could remain unusable until the next rainy season in March. Nuh Adan warned that floods could affect local agriculture for months, showing how one weather event can disrupt several seasons of food production.

The expected peak is in December, and aid agencies are preparing before the rains arrive. However, humanitarian funding and capacity have fallen sharply since 2025. Better flood data and knowledge of safe high ground may help, but reduced resources could limit the response if rainfall becomes severe.

Somali farmers face a painful choice because flooding threatens both farming now and food supplies later. They can plant crops, hoping the riverbanks hold, or avoid planting and protect themselves from losing seed, labor, and harvests. The second option leaves fields bare. Both paths can reduce the food available to families and communities.

The article describes this as a devastating gamble. If rivers burst their banks after crops are planted, floodwaters may destroy fields and belongings. Nuh Adan, a farmer and community leader in Bayahaaw, said the damage could last until the next rainy season in March. That means flooded farmland might not recover quickly enough to support the next stage of food production.

The decision comes as Somalia faces growing concern about food security during a strengthening super El Niño. Aid agencies are trying to reduce flood damage, but humanitarian funding and general capacity have fallen sharply since 2025. Farmers therefore face high risks with limited outside support.

A similar El Niño-related weather event in Somalia in 2023 affected close to two million people. It also displaced half a million people. These figures show that severe weather can become a national humanitarian emergency, not just a local flooding problem. Large numbers of people may need shelter, food, medical care, and protection at the same time.

The 2023 experience is shaping today’s preparations. ICRC head Antoine Grand said agencies are probably better prepared to identify where floods may occur and which areas offer safe high ground. Aid groups are using lessons from the earlier disaster to act before water arrives, rather than waiting until communities are already cut off or displaced.

The current threat remains serious because the super El Niño is strengthening ahead of its expected December peak. Preparedness and data have improved, but Grand said funding and humanitarian capacity have decreased sharply since 2025. That could make it harder to protect people if the coming floods approach the scale of 2023.

If rivers burst their banks, Somalia could face several connected crises. Floodwaters may destroy crops, reducing food supplies and increasing hunger. They could also damage homes and force families to leave. People in displacement camps face especially severe danger because the camps are already insecure places to live, with fewer protections from heavy rain and rising water.

Kamillo Muse, living in a displacement camp in Jowha, said even people in proper houses might be forced to flee if the rain pours. She said camp residents were terrified. Flooding could also threaten health facilities. The ICRC is stocking supported facilities with medical and nutrition supplies so they can remain operational, showing that access to care may be disrupted.

The effects may last well beyond the initial flood. Nuh Adan warned that agricultural damage could continue until the next rainy season in March. Aid agencies are distributing sandbags and placing supplies in flood-prone areas, but reduced humanitarian funding has weakened their ability to prepare and respond.

Somalia is especially vulnerable because severe El Niño weather can hit several basic needs at the same time. Flooding can destroy farmland, reduce food supplies, damage homes, and push people from their communities. The article states that international organisations consistently rank Somalia among the regions most at risk during El Niño cycles. This repeated exposure makes each major weather event a serious food-security threat.

The danger is greatest for people already living in displacement camps. Kamillo Muse said residents were terrified of the upcoming rains and warned that even people in proper houses might have to flee. Farmers also face difficult choices: planting could expose crops to flood damage, while leaving fields bare could increase hunger later.

The 2023 disaster shows the possible scale. It affected close to two million people and displaced half a million. Agencies are now better informed about likely flood locations and safe high ground, but lower humanitarian funding and capacity could leave vulnerable communities with less protection.

The International Committee of the Red Cross and the Somali Red Crescent Society are using early action to reduce flood damage. Their approach builds on lessons learned from the 2023 disaster. Preparing in advance matters because once rivers rise, roads, homes, farms, and services may be damaged or difficult to reach. Early supplies can help communities and facilities keep functioning.

The agencies are distributing sandbags to help protect exposed areas. They are also prepositioning essential supplies in flood-prone locations, so help is closer when it is needed. Health facilities receiving support are being stocked with medical and nutrition supplies. The aim is to keep those facilities operational during flooding and its aftermath.

Antoine Grand said agencies are probably better prepared to identify where floods may occur and what ground will be safe. That improved data is a positive change from 2023. However, he also said humanitarian funding and capacity have seriously decreased since 2025, limiting how much preparation and response can be delivered.

Flooding is a natural hazard, but its human impact depends heavily on preparation and response capacity. Funding supports warning systems, sandbags, stored supplies, transport, medical care, shelter, and staff. When funding falls, agencies may be unable to protect as many communities or keep essential services running. The same rainfall can therefore cause greater harm when fewer resources are available.

The article shows this mechanism clearly. The ICRC and Somali Red Crescent are distributing sandbags, prepositioning essential supplies, and stocking health facilities with medical and nutrition items. These actions can reduce damage and preserve care. But Antoine Grand said humanitarian funding and general capacity have seriously decreased since 2025, weakening the ICRC’s ability to prepare for and respond to expected floods.

Somalia already faces high flood risk during El Niño cycles. A similar event in 2023 affected close to two million people and displaced half a million. Better data and preparation offer some protection, but reduced funding could leave more people exposed when the rains arrive.