Failure to activate Hormuz fertilizer plan could trigger food crisis, UN official says

The UN-backed plan is a temporary, monitored system for moving fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz. It matters because the waterway has handled about one-third of globally traded urea and nearly half of seaborne sulphur. Fertilizer shipments from the Gulf have remained largely halted for more than six months.

A coordination center in Oman would register vessels and arrange safe passage. UN monitors would work with local authorities at Gulf ports to verify cargo loading. Ships would be tracked during transit, and countries could request extra inspections. Passing only five vessels daily could keep supplies flowing to countries in critical need.

Timing is the central issue. Jorge Moreira da Silva said the mechanism could be activated within seven to ten days after Washington and Tehran agree. He warned that a deal is crucial within weeks, or the planting season could be missed, reducing agricultural productivity and worsening price pressures.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, leading toward the Arabian Sea. Because ships carrying Gulf cargo must pass through this limited route, it is known as a shipping chokepoint. Disruption there can affect supplies far beyond the surrounding region.

Its importance comes from the goods moving through it. Before the war, the waterway handled roughly a third of globally traded urea, the world’s most widely used fertilizer. Nearly half of seaborne sulphur also passed through it. The strait is additionally a major conduit for global oil supplies.

The current crisis shows why geography matters. Iran has sought tighter control of the passage, while the United States has pressed its own naval blockade of Iranian ports. Continued disruption has largely halted Gulf fertilizer shipments and could affect planting, prices, and food security in Asia and Africa.

Before the war, roughly one-third of globally traded urea passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Urea is the world’s most widely used fertilizer, so this share represents a major connection between Gulf suppliers and agricultural markets elsewhere. The strait also carried nearly half of seaborne sulphur, another important fertilizer input.

These figures describe shares of global trade, not the entire world’s fertilizer production. They show why a blockage can create shortages even when fertilizer exists elsewhere. Ships unable to pass cannot deliver Gulf products to importing countries, and replacing those supplies may take time.

The article reports that fertilizer shipments out of the Gulf remained largely halted more than six months after the conflict began. During a mid-June to mid-July ceasefire, fertilizer accounted for only a “very negligible” share of resumed shipping. The proposed UN system aims to restore a limited flow before planting season is missed.

The United States and Iran are involved because their conflict has affected navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has sought to tighten its grip on the chokepoint since US and Israeli strikes on February 28. Washington, meanwhile, has been pressing its own naval blockade of Iranian ports. Their actions shape whether commercial fertilizer ships can safely pass.

The UN taskforce can organize monitoring, registration, and inspections, but it cannot independently settle the political dispute. The proposed mechanism therefore depends on an agreement between Washington and Tehran. Moreira da Silva said it could be activated seven to ten days after such an agreement.

The two countries have exchanged proposals through intermediaries since a June interim ceasefire collapsed. Talks have stalled over Tehran’s conditions and Washington’s demand to address Iran’s nuclear program from the outset. The UN wants the fertilizer arrangement to operate alongside broader negotiations, rather than wait for a comprehensive peace deal.

Fertilizer shortages can reduce crop productivity because farmers may be unable to supply fields with needed nutrients during the planting cycle. The article warns that missing the season would significantly lower agricultural productivity. That would matter especially in parts of Asia and Africa, where the proposed operation is intended to protect supplies for countries in critical need.

The likely price effect could spread through food markets. An August International Chamber of Commerce report estimated that continued Hormuz disruption could raise prices by up to 81% for cereals, 66% for oil crops, and 30% for animal products. Higher crop costs can also affect food made from those crops and livestock products.

The threat is not limited to Hormuz. Cargo vessels have come under attack in the Black Sea, and Iran-backed Houthi militants have attacked a key Red Sea route. Moreira da Silva described these simultaneous chokepoint disruptions, combined with the climate crisis, as a concentration of threats to global food security.

The article does not specify an alternative route, fertilizer source, or transport plan that could replace Hormuz. It focuses instead on restoring a limited flow through the strait under UN monitoring. Any alternatives would therefore be contingency measures rather than arrangements described as ready in the article.

Countries could generally seek fertilizer from producers outside the Gulf, release existing national or commercial stocks, or move cargo through other ports and routes. They might also use rail or road links after maritime delivery, or arrange ship-to-ship transfers where safe. These possibilities would depend on available supply, port capacity, costs, and security.

Those alternatives are not risk-free. The article reports attacks on cargo vessels in the Black Sea and an offensive by Iran-backed Houthi militants along a key Red Sea shipping route. It also says Gulf fertilizer shipments remained largely halted for more than six months, showing how difficult rapid replacement could be.

Fertilizer matters because crops need nutrients to grow, form leaves and roots, and produce grain, seeds, or fruit. Modern agriculture often uses fertilizer to replenish nutrients removed when harvests leave fields. Without enough available fertilizer, crop growth and yields can fall, especially where soils cannot supply all crop needs.

Its effect on yields comes from correcting nutrient shortages. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium support different parts of plant growth, so applying suitable amounts can help crops develop more fully. Urea is especially important globally; the article calls it the world’s most widely used fertilizer. Sulphur is also described as a key input.

The article links fertilizer access directly to planting schedules and food security. Moreira da Silva warned that missing the planting season would significantly reduce agricultural productivity. Because Gulf routes normally carry large fertilizer volumes, a prolonged blockage could raise prices and worsen food pressures in Asia and Africa. The biological explanation here uses established agricultural knowledge beyond the article.