Thousands of US-based techies return in 9 months; steep salary cuts await in India

India is seeing a rising flow of technology professionals returning from the US. This matters because the pattern could eventually reverse, leaving India with a net gain in technology talent. A net gain would mean more professionals moving back to India than moving to the US.

The trend has grown steadily. About 7,200 professionals returned in 2023, followed by 9,800 in 2024 and 15,100 in 2025. Between January and September 2026, another 12,700 returned. These figures cover white-collar technology workers moving in either direction, not only H-1B visa holders.

The US-to-India flow has not yet overtaken the opposite movement. Nearly 14,500 people moved from India to the US through September 2026. Visa uncertainty, changing US economic policies and layoffs may accelerate returns, potentially pushing inbound talent above outbound talent by year-end.

Around 12,700 white-collar technology professionals returned to India between January and September 2026. That total is already close to the record 15,100 returnees recorded during all of 2025. It shows how quickly the return movement is growing.

The comparison with outbound movement is especially important. Nearly 14,500 people moved from India to the US during the same period. That means the US-bound flow remained larger by about 1,800 people through September. Xpheno’s figures cover technology workers moving in either direction, rather than only people travelling on H-1B visas.

The gap could close before the end of 2026. Xpheno expects returnees to exceed the 2025 total, and Kamal Karanth said recent H-1B changes could accelerate the shift. If returns overtake departures, India could record a net gain in technology talent from the US.

An H-1B visa is a US temporary work visa for foreign professionals employed in specialised occupations, including many technology roles. It lets an approved worker take a qualifying job for a US employer under immigration rules. The article notes that Xpheno’s figures include workers moving between India and the US, not only H-1B holders.

The visa matters because many Indian technology professionals work in the US under this route. Changes, stricter rules or uncertainty can affect whether they can continue working, change jobs or plan their future there. Even uncertainty, rather than an immediate visa cancellation, can influence decisions about returning home.

The article links rising returns partly to uncertainty over US immigration rules and economic policies. Kamal Karanth said a recent H-1B move could accelerate the shift. That could push technology returnees above the number leaving India for the US, although the article does not identify the specific move.

More Indian technology professionals are returning because the US has become less predictable for some workers. The article points to uncertainty around immigration rules and economic policies, plus tighter visa regulations over recent years. This matters because professionals may reassess whether staying abroad offers enough security or opportunity.

Layoffs at large US technology companies during the past two to three years may also be contributing. At the same time, the return trend has grown steadily, from 7,200 professionals in 2023 to 9,800 in 2024 and 15,100 in 2025. The increase continued in 2026, with 12,700 returnees recorded by September.

Returning is not an easy solution. India’s technology hiring has lacked stability since the recruitment surge of 2021, and employers are more selective. Salaries can also fall sharply. Still, continued visa uncertainty and US job pressures could make India a more common destination for returning professionals.

Returning to India can mean a major income reduction because Indian employers usually follow domestic salary structures. They generally do not match compensation packages offered in overseas markets. The article says many returnees may need to accept only 25% to 33% of what they earned in the US, depending on their role, employer, location and project experience.

For example, Xpheno estimates that a full-stack engineer on an H-1B visa earns an average of $105,000 annually in the US. In India, professionals with comparable skills and experience who rank among the top 1% earn about $20,000 to $32,000 a year. That difference can force returning workers to lower their salary expectations.

The lower pay is a significant hurdle when finding a suitable job. Some specialised professionals can earn more: applied AI roles in India pay about Rs 16 lakh to Rs 35 lakh annually, while senior specialists may command significantly higher compensation.

Indian employers are focusing on skills that directly match current business needs. The strongest demand is for artificial intelligence, machine learning, data and product leadership. Companies also want expertise in cloud computing, cybersecurity and implementing AI solutions across enterprises. These skills matter because employers are selecting candidates for specific capabilities, not simply international backgrounds.

Neeti Sharma said companies are taking a more selective approach to recruitment. They place greater emphasis on specialised skills and relevant work experience than on overseas experience by itself. A returning professional with a strong US background may therefore still struggle if their skills do not match an active opening.

The wider hiring market makes this filter more important. India’s technology sector has not maintained stable hiring momentum since the 2021 recruitment surge. For returnees, this creates a double challenge: finding a role that fits their experience and accepting compensation based on Indian salary structures.

The same technology skills can earn different amounts because pay is shaped by local salary structures, employer practices, demand and the value assigned to roles in each market. The article says Indian employers largely maintain compensation in line with domestic levels instead of matching overseas packages. Similar experience therefore does not guarantee similar pay.

The gap is clear in full-stack engineering. Xpheno puts the average US salary for an H-1B full-stack engineer at $105,000, with a usual range of $70,000 to $150,000. In India, professionals with comparable skills and experience in the top 1% earn about $20,000 to $32,000 annually.

This difference affects return decisions and job searches. Many professionals may have to accept 25% to 33% of their former US income. Indian employers are not necessarily discounting experience; they are applying local compensation structures, while demand remains strongest for selected skills such as AI and cybersecurity.