US-Iran stalemate: What are Trump’s next military options?

Trump has ruled out attacking Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, but the conflict remains unresolved. His main immediate choice is to continue the pressure already being applied rather than launch a new campaign. This includes blockading Iranian ports and escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States is also using patrols, surveillance, and increasingly drones to protect shipping and attack targets. A second option is renewed air and missile attacks after the elections. Analyst Patrick Bury expects these strikes would come in limited groups against coastal and inland targets, rather than as one enormous campaign.

The naval pressure is the most likely course, according to Bury. Yet Iran has increased attacks on ships, showing that the blockade and escorts have not solved the central dispute. Trump has said expanded bombing may be possible after the elections, while indirect talks through Pakistan and Qatar continue.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime route connecting the Gulf with wider shipping lanes. Before the war, it carried at least 20 percent of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. That made access to the waterway important far beyond the United States and Iran.

Iran closed the strait in March after the war began. The United States responded with a naval blockade on Iran’s southern ports and escorts for commercial ships trying to pass. These actions turned the strait into both a battlefield and a bargaining issue. A June ceasefire later collapsed over control of the waterway.

Shipping has remained unstable. Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran’s, recovered above 81 percent of pre-war levels in September with US escorts, but then fell again. Iran’s attacks reached their highest level since the war began, keeping the strait central to negotiations, energy markets, and military planning.

The US military presence is large, but the article does not present it as a guarantee of success. About 50,000 American soldiers are stationed at different bases across Middle Eastern countries. The United States also has at least three aircraft carrier strike groups in the Gulf or sailing toward it.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group is heading to the region to join carriers already there. It carries about 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines. These forces operate alongside naval assets, aircraft, drones, patrols, and surveillance systems supporting the blockade and shipping escorts.

The buildup shows Washington has substantial capacity for sustained operations. However, Iran continues attacking ships and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or severely disrupted. The article describes the conflict as deadlocked, despite the United States possessing military capability Iran cannot match.

Attacks through the Strait of Hormuz reduce the amount of oil reaching world markets. Because the waterway previously carried at least 20 percent of global crude and LNG supplies, disruption creates immediate concern about shortages and delivery delays. Traders then push prices higher as they price in tighter supply and greater risk.

The article gives a sharp example. Crude oil rose from about $72 a barrel before the war to nearly $120 earlier in the year. Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran’s, later recovered above 81 percent of pre-war levels in September with US Navy escorts. On October 11, only 2.9 million barrels moved through the strait.

The latest attacks have reversed that partial recovery. The article reports that global energy markets were thrown into chaos and that crude was trading at about $104 on Thursday. Continued attacks could keep prices elevated and make shipping more expensive and risky.

Iran can keep threatening ships because the conflict is fought in a narrow waterway, where geography reduces the advantage of America’s much larger military. The United States has enormous capabilities, but protecting every commercial vessel requires persistent patrols, surveillance, escorts, and responses to attacks.

The article describes this as an asymmetry of costs. Iran uses attacks against shipping and has recently changed its offensive tactics. The United States maintains patrols over the southwestern side of the strait, while drones increasingly provide intelligence and conduct attacks. Those drones are cheaper than keeping aircraft on long sorties, but they do not remove the underlying risk.

US escorts helped restore Gulf oil flows to more than 81 percent of pre-war levels in September. Iran’s renewed attacks reversed that progress. Analysts therefore see Iran as having an easier starting point because of its geography, even though it cannot match American military power.

Renewed air and missile strikes would impose military and political costs, but the article provides no dollar figure. The United States would need to commit aircraft, missiles, intelligence, surveillance, and support forces. It would also risk more Iranian retaliation against US assets, regional infrastructure, and shipping.

Trump has said bombing could increase after the elections. Patrick Bury expects further strikes to come in limited packets against coastal and inland targets. The article also notes that drones are cheaper than keeping aircraft on long sorties, highlighting the operating costs of sustained air activity. It does not quantify the price of either approach.

The strikes might achieve less because earlier attacks did not produce the outcomes Washington wanted, according to Afzal Ashraf. Iran still controls access to the strait and has intensified attacks using different tactics. Bombing could therefore damage targets without resolving the maritime dispute or reopening shipping lanes.

Narrow maritime chokepoints matter because large volumes of trade may depend on a single restricted route. When access is interrupted, ships must stop, wait, or face greater danger. That can reduce supplies, raise prices, and unsettle markets far beyond the countries controlling the shoreline.

The Strait of Hormuz shows the mechanism clearly. Before the war, it carried at least 20 percent of global crude and LNG supplies. Iran’s closure sharply reduced traffic, while US naval escorts helped restore some Gulf oil flows. Iran’s renewed attacks then pushed the October 11 volume down to 2.9 million barrels.

Chokepoints also convert geography into military leverage. Iran cannot match US forces, but it can impose protection costs on every vessel. The United States must patrol, monitor, escort, and sometimes attack. Control of the route therefore shapes both energy security and negotiations.