This Is Israel’s Haredi Election

“Haredi” refers to Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Jewish community. Haredim fiercely protect a religious way of life centered on Jewish law and Torah study. Their community also has a very high birth rate, averaging about 6.5 children per woman. That growth makes their relationship with the state increasingly important.

Many Haredi women work, but a large proportion of Haredi men study Torah full time. Haredim have largely resisted compulsory military service, unlike most Israelis, for whom military service became a central civic duty. Some Haredim describe Torah study as spiritual defense, sometimes calling it a “Torah Dome.”

This difference has become harder to sustain during prolonged war. The IDF has warned of a shortage of as many as 12,000 soldiers, while non-Haredi Israelis question why they carry more of the military burden. Haredi political parties have used coalition influence to protect their community’s way of life.

The Haredi issue has moved to the center of Israel’s election because war has increased the need for soldiers. Since October 7, 2023, Israel has fought prolonged wars in Gaza and Lebanon and confronted Iran. The IDF has warned of a shortage of as many as 12,000 soldiers. That makes exemptions for eligible Haredi men feel less like an old political arrangement and more like an immediate security problem.

The dispute also concerns fairness. Non-Haredi Israelis ask why they should risk their lives while many Haredi men remain outside the army. At the same time, Haredi parties argue that full-time Torah study protects Jewish religious life. The Supreme Court’s 2024 ruling and later resistance brought the conflict into public view.

As the October 27 election approaches, security has overshadowed issues such as a two-state solution and Gaza reconstruction. Voters’ views on enlistment could determine coalition politics and the election result.

The Haredi community is already large and expanding quickly. It represents an estimated 13 percent of Israel’s population, or roughly 1 million people in a country of more than 9 million. Its average fertility rate is around 6.5 children per woman. By 2050, nearly one in four Israelis is projected to be Haredi.

The military numbers are also substantial. Around 80,000 Haredim aged 18 to 24 are reportedly believed to be eligible for military service but have not enlisted. This figure matters because the IDF says it faces a possible shortage of as many as 12,000 soldiers. Continued non-enlistment would leave fewer people available for service as the population changes.

The figures make the dispute larger than a legal argument about exemptions. They connect population growth, military capacity, economic participation, and political power. If the pattern continues, the share of Israelis available for military service could shrink over time.

The exemption began when Israel was established in 1948. Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion agreed to exempt around 400 yeshiva students from compulsory military service. At the time, the arrangement applied to a small group of full-time Torah scholars rather than the much larger population involved today.

Its original purpose was preservation. After the Holocaust, Israel’s leaders wanted to protect a remnant of traditional Jewish scholarship. Haredi communities later framed Torah study as essential to Jewish religious life and sometimes described it as a form of spiritual defense for Israel. That reasoning helped make the exception politically acceptable at the founding of the state.

The arrangement changed as the Haredi population grew rapidly. Military service was also designed as a unifying duty in a hostile neighborhood. What began as a limited compromise for about 400 students eventually became a major national dispute over equality, security, religion, and the state’s obligations during wartime.

In June 2024, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled that blanket exemptions for yeshiva students could no longer continue without a legal basis. It ordered the government to begin conscripting eligible Haredi men under the existing law. The decision treated military service as a legal obligation rather than an exemption that could continue indefinitely through political practice.

The ruling immediately threatened the government’s political balance. Shas and United Torah Judaism, the main ultra-Orthodox parties, argued that full-time Torah study was essential to Jewish religious life. They opposed compulsory enlistment. In 2025, they withdrew from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition because the government had failed to block the compulsory draft.

Resistance continued in the streets. Haredi protesters blocked roads and clashed with police and military police. The IDF later acknowledged difficulty enforcing enlistment orders, while some draft evaders reportedly tried to leave the country. The legal ruling therefore became a wider political and enforcement crisis.

If Haredi numbers keep rising while many Haredi men remain outside military service, Israel’s pool of available soldiers could shrink. The article warns that the proportion of the population available for military service would decline over time. That matters during prolonged wars, when the IDF already says it may lack as many as 12,000 soldiers.

The burden would fall more heavily on non-Haredi Israelis, who already serve and increasingly object to the unequal arrangement. Haredi resistance has produced blocked roads, clashes with police, and difficulty enforcing enlistment orders. The dispute can therefore deepen a major social fault line while making emergency mobilization harder.

Economic effects could also grow. Many Haredi men devote themselves to Torah study, and the community’s contribution to the formal economy remains limited, although many Haredi women work. With rapid population growth, military and economic participation will remain central pressures in future elections and coalition negotiations.

Israel’s coalition system gives influential parties a route to power even when they do not represent most voters. A government must maintain enough parliamentary support to survive. If a small religious party’s seats are needed for that support, the party can bargain over laws, budgets, and national priorities.

Shas and United Torah Judaism have used this leverage by joining governing coalitions and presenting themselves as guardians of Jewish spirituality. Their support can help keep a prime minister in office. In return, they can press for policies that protect Haredi institutions and resist compulsory military service for eligible men. Their position is especially important when the governing coalition is closely balanced.

This influence also creates vulnerability. When the government failed to block the compulsory draft, both parties withdrew from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition in 2025. Their departure turned the enlistment dispute into a political crisis and showed how a community’s status can affect national policy.