Pakistan Faces Winter Gas Shortages if Hormuz LNG Remains Choked

Pakistan’s winter gas risk comes from disrupted LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Masood Nabi, chief executive of Pakistan LNG Limited, said the main bottleneck is not gas availability. It is moving LNG safely through the waterway. If shipments remain disrupted, Pakistan may not receive enough fuel when winter demand rises.

Pakistan depends heavily on imported LNG for its energy system. Last year, Qatar supplied 99% of its LNG imports under term contracts. With many Qatari cargoes disrupted, Pakistan has had to seek occasional spot shipments instead. Some Qatari cargoes have arrived after Iran gave Pakistan direct safety assurances, but not all shipments have reached the country.

Pakistan plans to buy 10 additional cargoes for deliveries from November 2026 through February 2027. These cargoes are expected to cost twice as much as Qatar’s contracted LNG. If supplies remain unreliable, Pakistan could face shortages, higher power-generation costs, or both during the winter.

LNG means liquefied natural gas. Natural gas is cooled until it becomes a liquid, allowing it to be transported by specialized vessels. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage linking the Gulf with wider shipping routes. Together, LNG cargoes and this route connect overseas gas suppliers with Pakistan’s import system.

Pakistan receives much of its imported LNG by sea. Qatar has been especially important, supplying 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports last year under term contracts. Qatari and UAE LNG flows through the Strait have been severely disrupted. That leaves Pakistan struggling to receive cargoes, even though the article says gas itself is available.

The route’s importance is clear in the winter outlook. Some Qatari cargoes have reached Pakistan after Iran gave direct safety assurances, but others have not. Pakistan must therefore buy expensive spot cargoes, while also considering whether greater domestic production could offset some lost imports.

Pakistan’s dependence on Qatar is unusually large. The country sourced 99% of its LNG imports from Qatar last year. Those supplies came through term contracts, which generally provide planned deliveries at prices lower than emergency spot purchases. Disruption to Qatar therefore creates a major supply gap for Pakistan.

To cover that gap, Pakistan must enter the spot market. The article says it will need an additional 10 cargoes for delivery between November 2026 and February 2027. These purchases are expected to cost double the price of LNG imported from Qatar under existing arrangements. That difference shows the financial scale of the disruption.

The extra cargoes are intended to secure winter gas volumes, not to replace Qatar permanently. Some Qatari shipments have reached Pakistan after Iranian safety assurances, but supplies remain severely disrupted. If the situation continues, Pakistan will depend on costly spot cargoes while examining domestic gas production as a partial offset.

Qatar declared force majeure in March after Iranian strikes caused damage to its Ras Laffan LNG export hub. Force majeure means a supplier invokes extraordinary circumstances that prevent normal contractual performance. The declaration disrupted Qatar’s export commitments, including term supplies that Pakistan had relied on for regular LNG deliveries.

Pakistan had sourced 99% of its LNG imports from Qatar under term contracts the previous year. These agreements were cheaper than spot purchases. When contracted cargoes became unreliable, Pakistan had to compete for occasional shipments in the spot market. Some Qatari cargoes later arrived after Iran directly assured Pakistan that vessels could safely cross the Strait.

The disruption has not been fully resolved. Pakistan needs 10 more spot cargoes for deliveries from November 2026 through February 2027. The article says these cargoes could cost twice as much as Qatari LNG, creating more pressure on Pakistan’s winter energy budget and power system.

Pakistan’s electricity becomes more expensive when it replaces cheaper term LNG with spot-market cargoes. Imported gas is used in power generation, so a higher fuel price raises the cost of producing electricity. The article says Pakistan’s expensive spot purchases have already pushed its power-generation costs higher.

The price difference is substantial. Pakistan’s term supplies from Qatar are cheaper than spot LNG. After Qatari exports were disrupted, Pakistan had to seek occasional cargoes while Asian and European buyers competed for winter supplies. That competition drove prices higher and forced Pakistan to pay hefty premiums for available shipments.

Pakistan expects to purchase 10 additional spot cargoes for winter deliveries. The article says these could cost twice the price of LNG imported from Qatar and push the winter bill above $1 billion. Unless disrupted term supplies recover, higher fuel costs will continue weighing on electricity generation and the wider energy system.

Pakistan has several responses, but none is presented as a complete replacement for Qatar. Its immediate option is the spot market, where it can buy cargoes for specific delivery windows. It is also considering whether higher domestic natural-gas production could offset some of the LNG lost from the Middle East.

The spot market has already become Pakistan’s main emergency tool. After Qatar declared force majeure, Pakistan bought occasional cargoes at hefty premiums. It now expects to purchase 10 additional cargoes for deliveries from November 2026 through February 2027. The article says these will cost twice as much as Qatar’s term LNG.

Domestic production could reduce the import gap, but the article does not give a volume or timetable for increasing it. It also does not name a confirmed alternative supplier that could replace Qatar. Some Qatari cargoes still arrive after Iranian safety assurances, while Qatari and UAE flows remain severely disrupted.

The LNG market links gas producers with importing countries through shipped cargoes. Buyers can rely on term contracts for planned deliveries or use the spot market for cargoes needed quickly. Term LNG is cheaper for Pakistan than spot LNG in the current crisis. This difference makes supply planning especially important.

Pakistan usually receives major volumes from Qatar under term contracts. When those flows were disrupted, it had to compete for spot cargoes. Asian and European buyers also sought LNG ahead of winter, when demand is expected to rise. More buyers chasing available shipments pushed spot prices higher and made emergency purchases difficult.

Pakistan now expects to buy 10 spot cargoes for deliveries between November 2026 and February 2027. The article says those cargoes will cost twice as much as Qatari imports and require more than $1 billion. Continued competition could keep pressure on Pakistan’s gas supply and electricity costs.