Somalia sets date for May presidential election amid ongoing Islamist insurgency

Somalia’s election commission has announced a two-stage national voting timetable. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for 15 April, followed by the presidential election on 15 May. The dates are important because Somalia’s political system is already strained by disputes over constitutional changes, federal power, and security.

The commission said the presidential date follows a rule stating that the president serves five years from the day of swearing-in. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud began his second term in 2022, but his government declared a transition period after his term ended in May this year. That decision followed a constitutional amendment and opposition objections.

The timetable is not accepted by all political actors. Opposition figures call the decision unilateral and warn that disputed voting could create parallel elections or conflict. Security problems also remain serious, since al-Shabaab controls vast areas and election preparations have progressed only in limited local pockets.

The timetable is disputed because Somalia’s main political forces have not agreed on the rules or legitimacy of the process. Opposition parties boycotted the constitutional amendment that created a transition period and have rejected those changes. Former president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo called the unilateral decision a threat to Somalia’s statehood and future.

Regional leaders also oppose President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s effort to replace clan-based elections with party-based voting. They view the reform as a power grab that could shift influence toward the central government. The government itself is described by analyst Samira Gaid as relying mainly on Mogadishu and two or three allied federal member states.

This disagreement could damage the election before voting begins. Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed warned that a contested process could produce parallel elections or civil conflict. Gaid also fears more confrontation inside federal member states, showing that the dispute concerns both election rules and control of the country.

A clan-based electoral system organizes political representation around Somalia’s clans and the elders who speak for them. The article describes the existing model as a system based around clan elders. This means political participation is structured through traditional clan leadership rather than mainly through nationwide parties competing for votes and forming governments.

Party-based elections would use political parties as the central organizing mechanism. Parties could present programmes, select candidates, and compete for support across different communities. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has been trying to move Somalia in that direction. The change matters because it could reshape who controls nominations, alliances, and national decision-making.

The proposed shift has become a source of conflict. Regional leaders see it as a power grab, while opposition groups reject the constitutional process behind it. The article does not describe the exact voting rules of either system. It shows, however, that changing the system is closely tied to wider disputes over federal authority and political power.

The article gives no precise percentage of territory governed by Somalia’s central authorities. It reports that analyst Samira Gaid considers the government to consist essentially of Mogadishu and two or three allied federal member states. That description points to a narrow and uneven governing reach rather than nationwide control.

Al-Shabaab, an al Qaeda-allied militant group, still controls vast areas of Somalia after fighting the central government for two decades. The military, backed by the African Union peacekeeping mission AUSSOM, has pushed the group back, but it has not defeated it. Elections have been organized only in a few localized pockets, showing how limited state reach remains.

The remaining areas are not described as one uniform zone. Some are controlled or contested by militants, while others are affected by conflict between federal forces and regional forces. This fragmented map makes national voting difficult. It also means announced election dates may not translate into equal or secure voting across Somalia.

An election held without agreement would risk producing competing claims to political legitimacy. Opposition leader Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed warned that a contested process could lead to parallel elections and even civil conflict. That would make the vote a source of instability rather than a peaceful transfer or renewal of authority.

The mechanism is already visible in Somalia’s political disputes. Opposition parties reject the constitutional amendment behind the transition period, while regional leaders resist party-based reforms. Federal troops have also clashed with forces allied to South West State leader Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen. If different actors reject the rules or results, they could support rival institutions or mobilize forces.

The immediate consequence could be more fragmentation among federal member states. Analyst Samira Gaid said government processes were leading to further division and feared more confrontation. Holding elections would therefore require political agreement, not only announced dates. Without it, voting could intensify existing conflicts and weaken Somalia’s state institutions.

Al-Shabaab has fought Somalia’s central government for two decades, creating a long-running security crisis around any national election. The group is allied with al-Qaeda and still controls vast areas, despite military pressure. This means election officials, candidates, voters, and polling sites cannot operate safely or consistently across the country.

The security problem directly affects election organization. The military, supported by the African Union peacekeeping mission AUSSOM, has pushed militants back, but little progress has been made in arranging elections beyond a few localized pockets. Areas controlled by militants cannot easily receive election materials, register voters, or protect polling stations. Conflict also diverts government resources away from political preparation.

The insurgency combines with political fragmentation to make the timetable uncertain. Even if national leaders agree on the rules, they must still secure enough territory for credible voting. AUSSOM funding is also uncertain, although the United States has indicated that funding will continue for another year after an earlier plan to end it in 2026.

Federalism is a system in which power is shared between a national government and regional governments. In Somalia, those regions are called federal member states. National elections therefore depend on cooperation between the government in Mogadishu and the authorities that govern important parts of the country.

The article shows why this division matters. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s reforms are opposed by regional leaders, who see them as a power grab. The government is described as relying on only two or three allied member states. Federal troops have also fought forces allied to the head of South West State, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen. These disputes can obstruct voting arrangements and security.

A national election cannot be fully organized by the central government if regional authorities reject its rules or cannot provide access and protection. Analyst Samira Gaid fears conflict within remaining federal member states. Federalism can distribute power, but disagreement between levels of government may produce fragmented elections, rival processes, or further confrontation.