Immigration: Federal Employment Agency warns against cutting migration from the Western Balkans

The West Balkan Regulation is a special route into Germany’s labor market. Since 2016, it has made it easier for people from six Western Balkan countries to work in Germany. Its importance lies in widening recruitment beyond the workers already available inside Germany.

The covered countries are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The current arrangement gives people from these countries access to German jobs without the planned reduction being tied to their qualifications. The proposed change would reduce migration regardless of qualification.

The regulation is already a significant labor source. About 546,000 socially insured employees from these countries work in Germany. Of them, 53 percent work at least at skilled-worker level, and about 45 percent of those skilled workers are employed in shortage occupations. These figures explain why employers and labor-market experts oppose reducing access.

The German government plans to reduce the annual number of workers admitted through the West Balkan Regulation. The quota would fall from 50,000 people to 25,000. This matters because the regulation is already supplying workers while Germany faces a shortage of labor, especially in some occupations.

The proposed change is part of the coalition agreement between CDU/CSU and SPD. The draft regulation would reduce labor migration from the Western Balkans independently of qualifications. In other words, the limit would apply broadly rather than focusing only on a particular skill group.

The change is scheduled to start on January 1, 2027. The Federal Employment Agency says the current quota was already insufficient for every application in 2025 and will be used up early this year. Employers, the BDA, and the economic advisers therefore argue that cutting it would create new obstacles when businesses need workers.

The existing workforce from the Western Balkan states is large. Around 546,000 socially insured employees from these countries currently work in Germany. This makes the regulation more than a small migration channel; it is an established source of labor for the German economy.

The workforce also includes many skilled employees. Fifty-three percent work at least at skilled-worker level. That means more than half meet the article’s stated benchmark for skilled employment. Among these skilled workers, around 45 percent work in occupations already facing shortages.

These figures are central to the debate over the proposed quota cut. They show that workers arriving through this route are not only filling low-skilled jobs. The Federal Employment Agency, employers, and economic advisers therefore warn that reducing the channel could make recruitment harder and intensify Germany’s labor shortage, especially as the available workforce is expected to decline for demographic reasons.

The Federal Employment Agency links the quota directly to Germany’s labor shortage. Its board member Vanessa Ahuja says halving the quota would weaken a successful immigration model and make it harder for companies to find workers. The concern is especially urgent because the country’s workforce potential is falling for demographic reasons.

The mechanism is straightforward. Fewer people from the Western Balkans could enter the German labor market through this route. Companies would then have fewer candidates while competing for workers already in Germany. The agency warns that this could be a serious problem if planned infrastructure investments and the so-called construction turbo succeed, because those projects would require enough employees.

The current quota is already under pressure. It was not sufficient for all applications in 2025 and is expected to be used up early this year. The agency therefore recommends keeping the annual limit at 50,000 instead of reducing it to 25,000.

The West Balkan Regulation began in 2016 to make German labor-market access easier for people from six Western Balkan countries. It created a route that employers could use to recruit workers from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia.

Its annual quota later changed. In mid-2024, the former governing coalition increased the limit from 25,000 to 50,000 people. The article does not give a separate formal reason for that decision, but it records strong demand: the 50,000 quota was not enough for all applications in 2025 and is expected to be exhausted early this year.

The current coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD now plans to reverse that expansion. Its draft would restore the quota to 25,000 from January 1, 2027. Critics say this would ignore the regulation’s positive experience, the number of workers already employed, and Germany’s demographic decline in workforce potential.

If fewer workers arrive from the Western Balkans, the government wants companies to make greater use of workers already available in Germany. This is the alternative named in the draft. The goal is to fill vacancies through the domestic labor pool rather than relying as much on this migration route.

The mechanism would shift recruitment toward people already living in Germany. Companies would search more intensively among this existing workforce for employees who can take available jobs. The article does not specify particular groups, training programs, or other countries that would supply the missing workers.

Whether this alternative can cover demand is disputed. The Federal Employment Agency warns that Germany already faces labor shortages and that the current quota is exhausted before every application can be accepted. The economic advisers also point to a demography-driven decline in workforce potential. Cutting immigration could therefore leave companies with fewer recruitment options.

An aging population reduces the available workforce because the number of people leaving working age can exceed the number entering it. The article describes this as a demography-driven decline in Germany’s workforce potential. Fewer available workers can make it harder for businesses to fill jobs, even when vacancies remain.

Immigration can change that balance by adding people who can take jobs. In this case, workers from the Western Balkans already contribute to Germany’s labor supply. About 546,000 socially insured employees from those states work in Germany, and 53 percent work at least at skilled-worker level. Around 45 percent of those skilled workers are in shortage occupations.

That is why the economic advisers call a quota limit unsuitable amid labor shortages. If fewer workers arrive while the workforce potential falls, companies may face more recruitment difficulties. The article presents immigration as one way to supplement Germany’s available workers, not as a complete solution to every labor-market problem.