Millions of Ukrainians Could Flee Again This Winter: UN

Becoming displaced again means returning Ukrainians may have to leave their homes for a second time. They could move elsewhere inside Ukraine or leave the country if damaged services and winter conditions make staying unsafe. This would deepen an already major displacement crisis.

The main trigger is the deterioration of civilian infrastructure. Russian drone attacks have damaged electricity, heating, and water systems. Because water systems rely on electricity, one strike can disrupt several basic services at once. Homes may also be damaged or difficult to heat.

The risk is especially serious in frontline districts, where about 1.45 million returnees live. The IOM warned that conditions are worsening daily, while its 2026 Ukraine response plan is less than seven percent funded. If services fail during winter, families may face desperate choices and seek safety elsewhere.

Ukraine still has nearly 3.6 million internally displaced people. These people remain inside Ukraine but have left their original homes because of the war. At the same time, about 3.8 million people have returned home, often to damaged properties. These figures show that displacement and return are happening simultaneously.

The danger is concentrated in frontline areas. The IOM estimates that 1.45 million returnees live in frontline districts. The Kharkiv region alone accounts for 565,000 of them. These communities face greater exposure to Russian attacks and damaged public infrastructure.

The figures matter because returning home does not guarantee safety or stability. Attacks on power, heating, and water systems could push some returnees to leave again. The IOM warned that winter may bring the most difficult months since the full-scale war began, while its response plan remains severely underfunded.

Attacks on electricity, heating, and water systems make homes less livable. Electricity powers many water systems, so a power outage can also interrupt water access. Losing heating during winter adds another immediate danger, especially when temperatures fall and homes are damaged.

The IOM said repeated Russian strikes have harmed civilian energy infrastructure. Reliable water is an urgent concern because water systems depend on electricity. The agency has developed 31 solar power stations to support water systems. Solar stations are harder to attack and harder to destroy completely, offering a more resilient source of power.

When basic services repeatedly fail, families face a choice between remaining in unsafe conditions and leaving. This risk is highest in frontline districts, where many returnees live. The IOM expects alternatives such as gas stoves and fuel to be critical if electricity supplies are disrupted this winter.

A prolonged winter outage removes services that protect people from cold and help them meet daily needs. Heating keeps homes habitable, electricity supports water systems, and fuel or gas may be needed for cooking. When several services fail together, people can face an emergency rather than a temporary inconvenience.

The IOM identified 2.1 million older people living alone in apartment blocks as especially vulnerable. Apartment residents may depend on shared heating and electricity systems. Older people living alone may also have fewer resources or less ability to find alternatives when those systems stop working.

The concern is growing because Russian attacks have repeatedly damaged civilian infrastructure. The IOM said alternatives, including gas stoves and fuel, will be critical this winter. If outages last, older residents and other households may be forced to leave, increasing displacement among people who had already returned home.

The International Organization for Migration, or IOM, is a United Nations agency focused on migration and displacement. In Ukraine, it monitors displacement risks and supports communities affected by the war. Its warning highlights how damaged infrastructure could create another wave of movement.

The IOM has developed 31 solar power stations across the country. These stations support water systems, which depend on electricity. The agency says solar power is harder to attack and harder to destroy completely. It also stresses the need for alternatives such as gas stoves and fuel during winter outages.

The organization estimates that nearly 3.6 million people remain internally displaced and that 3.8 million have returned home. However, less than seven percent of its Ukraine crisis response plan for 2026 has been funded. IOM regional director Arthur Erken urged the international community to act now before conditions worsen.

If winter conditions and infrastructure damage become unbearable, Ukrainians may seek safety outside the country. The IOM said Poland, Germany, and the Czech Republic are hosting the largest number of Ukrainian refugees. These countries could therefore receive more people if another wave of departures begins.

The possible movement would be linked to worsening daily conditions, not only direct attacks. Families may leave when electricity, heating, or water cannot be relied upon. Water systems depend on electricity, and prolonged loss of heat can quickly become an emergency, especially for older people living alone.

The IOM’s regional director said he was sure these host countries were preparing for the possibility that Ukrainians would try to leave if the situation deteriorated. The warning comes as winter approaches and as less than seven percent of the IOM’s 2026 Ukraine response plan has been funded.

A refugee is someone who flees across an international border because of war or persecution. An internally displaced person, or IDP, leaves home for safety but remains inside the country’s borders. Both groups have been forced from their homes, but their legal situations and places of refuge differ.

Ukraine illustrates the difference clearly. Nearly 3.6 million people remain internally displaced within Ukraine. Other Ukrainians crossed borders and became refugees, with Poland, Germany, and the Czech Republic hosting the largest numbers. People who return home may later become displaced again if conditions deteriorate.

The distinction matters because assistance is organized differently. IDPs remain under their own country’s authorities and need help where they have relocated. Refugees depend on protection and support in host countries. Keeping the categories clear helps governments and humanitarian agencies identify needs, plan services, and track whether people are returning or fleeing again.