Zuma’s illness raises questions for South Africa opposition

uMkhonto weSizwe, or MK, is a populist political party built around former South African President Jacob Zuma. It emerged as a breakaway movement for Zuma supporters who opposed African National Congress leadership under President Cyril Ramaphosa. The party matters because it quickly became one of South Africa’s biggest political forces.

MK’s 2024 election platform promised to scrap the constitution, expropriate land without compensation, and nationalize banks, insurers, and strategic mines. Its strong performance helped end the ANC’s parliamentary majority and forced a coalition government. The party’s identity and appeal are closely tied to Zuma personally.

Zuma’s hospitalization has exposed that dependence. MK officials and the Zuma Foundation gave conflicting accounts of his health, and the party canceled a major rally before municipal elections. Analysts say the party has faced leadership turmoil and internal disputes, but Zuma remains its main public attraction and organizing force.

MK’s 2024 national election breakthrough was substantial: it won nearly 15% of the vote. That result made it one of the biggest forces in South African politics. For a party launched only nearly three years earlier, the performance rapidly changed the country’s political landscape.

The result mattered because it accelerated the ANC’s decline. The ANC, once led by Nelson Mandela, lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since apartheid ended. It then had to form a coalition government rather than govern with a majority alone. MK’s support came with a radical platform focused on constitutional change, land expropriation without compensation, and nationalization.

The breakthrough did not remove MK’s internal problems. Its rise has been followed by leadership turmoil, purges, and repeated disputes over candidate selection. Zuma’s absence from public campaigning now raises the question of whether the party can preserve nearly 15% support without its most recognizable figure.

If Zuma cannot appear publicly, MK may struggle to keep its campaign energized and its support unified. Analysts describe him as the party’s central drawcard, not simply one leader among many. His continued absence could therefore weaken the movement’s visibility, organization, and emotional appeal before local elections.

There is already a concrete warning sign. MK canceled its flagship Siyathatha rally less than three weeks before South Africa’s municipal elections. Party officials and the Zuma Foundation also offered conflicting accounts of his hospitalization. Those events can create uncertainty among supporters and make the party appear less coordinated during an important campaign.

The ANC could benefit from this weakness. Analyst Musa Xulu said some ANC voters who followed Zuma might drift back if he remains off the campaign trail. MK’s internal turmoil, purges, and candidate disputes could intensify the problem. Its future momentum will depend on whether another figure can unite supporters and campaign effectively.

The ANC had governed with a parliamentary majority until the 2024 national election. MK’s rapid rise helped accelerate its decline. Because the ANC no longer controlled a majority of parliamentary seats, it could not govern alone in the same way. A coalition became necessary to assemble enough political support for governing.

MK won nearly 15% of the national vote on a platform that challenged the existing political and economic order. Its success took votes and political momentum from the ANC, which had once been led by Nelson Mandela. The ANC’s loss was therefore not only a poor result; it changed how the national government had to be formed.

The article describes this as the ANC’s first loss of its parliamentary majority since the end of apartheid. The resulting coalition government reflects the fragmented political landscape created by the election. MK’s breakthrough made the ANC’s long-standing dominance less secure, while the coalition placed greater importance on cooperation among parties.

MK began as a breakaway party linked directly to Jacob Zuma. After leading South Africa from 2009 to 2018, Zuma switched from the ANC ahead of a general election. He then publicly launched MK nearly three years before the current local-election campaign. The party was created for supporters who opposed the ANC leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa.

This origin explains why MK became so dependent on Zuma. It was not presented as a movement with a separate, established political center. Instead, it gathered people around Zuma’s political identity and opposition to the ANC leadership. Its 2024 platform also gave the breakaway party a distinct message, including proposals to scrap the constitution and nationalize major sectors.

The split reshaped South African politics. MK won nearly 15% in 2024, while the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since apartheid ended. Zuma’s break therefore produced more than a new party: it helped force the ANC into a coalition government.

If Jacob Zuma cannot lead MK, his son Duduzane Zuma is the clearest possible successor named in the article. Duduzane serves as the party’s first deputy president and is widely regarded as a potential replacement. His family connection gives him an immediate link to MK’s founding figure.

The main challenge is that Duduzane has not demonstrated the same political appeal. Analyst André Duvenhage described him as a completely unknown political figure and noted that he comes from a business background. That is very different from his father’s experience as South Africa’s president from 2009 to 2018 and as the movement’s central public attraction.

Duduzane would also inherit a party facing leadership turmoil, internal purges, and candidate disputes. He would need to keep Zuma’s supporters together while building his own identity. The article does not establish that he can do this. His succession would therefore be possible, but far from guaranteed.

Political parties give voters competing programs and organize candidates for elections. Elections then translate public support into parliamentary power. In South Africa, that power matters because the party with enough support can govern more independently, while a weaker result may require coalition partners. This is why MK’s 2024 breakthrough changed national government.

MK won nearly 15% of the vote, while the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since apartheid ended. The ANC therefore had to form a coalition government. Constitutional rules also shape political choices: MK campaigned on a promise to scrap the constitution, while the Constitutional Court ruled on whether 181 ANC candidates could return to the ballot.

These rules affect both representation and governing authority. Ahead of the 4 November 2026 local elections, the court ordered the electoral commission to reinstate the 181 disqualified ANC candidates. The episode shows that parties, voters, electoral officials, courts, and constitutional arrangements all help determine who can compete and govern.