Future of western security is at stake in Yemen civil war, says country’s former PM

Taiz is again at the center of Yemen’s war. Houthi forces launched a campaign along the Red Sea coast after four years of relative calm, and they are now tightening their grip around the city. Saeed warns that a full siege could begin within days, making the humanitarian and military situation worse than in 2015.

The city matters because of its location. It sits among Yemen’s highlands, the Red Sea coast and routes toward Mocha, Bab al-Mandab and Aden. Saeed says control of Taiz would give the Houthis access toward the strait and the road to Aden, where the UN-recognized government is based. The Houthis are also reportedly seeking positions farther south.

Saeed believes Taiz’s fall would change both the war’s map and its meaning. It would weaken the idea of a modern Yemeni state and strengthen the Houthi project. He says anti-Houthi forces have good troops but poor coordination, while Taiz has only light weapons. He is urging them to unite before the city is surrounded.

Bab al-Mandab is a narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean. Geographically, it lies between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa. The article does not give those neighboring countries, but it identifies the strait as one of the world’s important maritime passages.

Its importance comes from its position beside Yemen’s western coast. Routes from Taiz lead toward the coastal city of Mocha and the strait, while other routes continue toward Aden. Saeed argues that the Houthis understand this geography and see control of Taiz as a step toward controlling the highlands, coast and strait.

The article therefore presents Bab al-Mandab as more than a local landmark. If fighting gives the Houthis access to the strait, control of a major Red Sea gateway could affect Yemen’s war, Western security and maritime movement. The exact shipping effects are not detailed, but the strategic risk is central to Saeed’s appeal for Western help.

Taiz is a large urban center whose population exceeds 500,000. It is also presented as politically distinctive: Saeed calls it a modern, democratic city less tied to tribal culture. That makes its possible capture important not only for territory, but also for Yemen’s competing visions of government and society.

Geographically, Taiz sits between several strategic spaces. It is connected to Yemen’s highlands and the Red Sea coast, including the coastal city of Mocha. Saeed says the routes continue toward Bab al-Mandab and the Gulf of Aden, while the road south leads toward Aden, the seat of the UN-recognized government. The Houthis have attacked from four different axes.

This position gives Taiz military value beyond its city limits. Holding it could help the Houthis expand from the highlands toward the coast and southward. Saeed says they are already seeking control in parts of Lahij and eventually Aden. A siege would therefore threaten civilians while opening a wider strategic corridor.

The immediate consequence would be a major Houthi territorial gain. Saeed says losing Taiz could mean losing access to Bab al-Mandab and the road to Aden, where Yemen’s UN-recognized government is based. He believes the Houthis would then press farther south and use the collapse to gain more land.

The mechanism is geographic control. Taiz sits before the strait’s coastal approaches and near Mocha, while routes lead toward the Gulf of Aden. Holding the city could connect Houthi positions in the highlands with the coast. It could also expose southern areas, including Lahij and eventually Aden, to further pressure. The article links this prospect directly to Western security.

The wider result could be a more dangerous regional conflict and greater concern over Red Sea shipping. The article does not predict a specific blockade or disruption, so those effects remain uncertain. It does warn that Houthi control of Yemen would leave the country insecure and place an important maritime passage within reach of an Iran-backed movement.

The Houthis are the armed movement fighting Yemen’s government and expanding from areas they control. The article describes them as Iran-backed rebels and says their stated or alleged wider aim is to control all of Yemen. Saeed also links their project to Zaydi education, tribal networks and religious systems they would impose after capturing territory.

Yemen’s internationally recognized government is supported chiefly by Saudi Arabia. Saeed says Saudi Arabia did not prepare early enough for the escalation, while government-backed troops suffered from weak coordination. He also mentions competition between Gulf states and calls for greater Western assistance. The government forces include the National Shield Forces, National Resistance Forces and Giants Brigades.

Iran is involved because Saeed sees the Houthis as helping Iran expand chaos and says their attack came while Iran was under heavy pressure. Saudi Arabia is involved because it backs the government and has faced Houthi attacks, including attacks on east-to-west oil pipelines. The article presents Yemen as a struggle shaped by both local forces and wider regional rivalry.

The 2022 UN-brokered ceasefire created four years of relative calm by freezing Yemen’s frontlines. That pause did not solve the conflict or prepare government-backed forces for a renewed offensive. Saeed says too little happened during the truce to reorganize troops or improve coordination.

The turning point came when the Houthis launched a military campaign to take Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Government forces had not prepared for the loss of the western coast, leaving Taiz exposed to attacks from four axes. Saeed says the National Shield Forces, National Resistance Forces and Giants Brigades needed better communication, but competition and weak coordination persisted.

As the Houthis expanded through rural areas and smaller cities, Taiz became the next major pressure point. They allowed some fuel and commodities into the city while strengthening their surrounding positions, according to Saeed. He expects a full siege and an attempt to enter the city. The fighting has therefore shifted from frozen lines to a contest over Taiz’s strategic corridor.

A proxy conflict is a war in which local forces fight while outside powers support them to pursue broader interests. Yemen fits that pattern in the article because the Houthis are Iran-backed, while Saudi Arabia is the chief backer of the internationally recognized government. Local actors still do the fighting, but outside support changes their resources and objectives.

Influence can be extended through armed partners, military supplies and technology. Saeed says government forces have only light weapons, while the Houthis acquired long-range drone technology faster than Saudi Arabia and the government expected. He also describes competing Gulf interests and says Iran used the Houthis during a period when Iran itself was under heavy pressure.

This support can widen a local battle into a regional security crisis. A Houthi advance around Taiz could threaten routes toward Bab al-Mandab and Aden, while Saudi Arabia faces pressure on its infrastructure. The article’s central warning is that outside powers must recognize how local territorial gains can produce much wider strategic consequences.