Ethiopian gains in Tigray risk wider war with Eritrea, analyst warns

Ethiopian federal forces and government-allied fighters regained important parts of northern Tigray. Their advances included Adigrat, near the Eritrean border, and Mekelle, the regional capital. Capturing these places mattered because they are major population centers, transport links and symbols of political control.

AP footage showed Ethiopian troops and military vehicles entering Adigrat on Oct. 10. Government-allied fighters later retook Mekelle after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front withdrew. That withdrawal reduced the TPLF’s control of the capital, but it did not prove that federal forces controlled the entire region.

The TPLF could remain active outside the cities. Analyst Magnus Taylor recalled that Tigrayan forces had regrouped in rural areas after losing towns during an earlier war. He warned that fighting could therefore continue, causing more destruction and disrupting life across Tigray.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, is the organization at the center of the fighting in Tigray. In the article, it is the Tigrayan force that lost Mekelle and withdrew as government-allied fighters advanced. Its importance comes from its military and political role in the region.

The conflict is not simply about one city. Federal forces may capture towns and roads, while TPLF fighters remain able to operate in Tigray’s large rural areas. Taylor compared this possibility with an earlier war, when Tigrayan forces regrouped after losing towns. That makes the TPLF central to whether fighting continues or ends.

The article does not provide a fuller organizational history. It does show that the federal campaign is aimed at the TPLF, while authorities also need to distinguish that campaign from Tigray’s wider population. Without that distinction, civilian hardship and resistance could deepen.

The war’s human toll is estimated at about 500,000 civilian deaths. Researchers at Ghent University in Belgium counted deaths linked not only to direct violence, but also to famine and the collapse of health services. This makes the conflict’s damage much broader than battlefield casualties.

The figure shows how war can kill through several connected mechanisms. Fighting can destroy homes, farms, roads and medical facilities. Disrupted supplies can cause hunger, while damaged health services leave people without treatment. The article groups all three causes in its estimate, showing the scale of civilian suffering.

The article also warns that renewed fighting could bring further destruction and disruption. The peace agreement that ended the 2020-2022 war has been undermined by renewed violence. Without restored humanitarian access, federal funding, fuel, medicine and cash, civilians remain exposed to additional hardship.

Capturing towns and main roads gives federal forces important transport routes and urban centers. It can restrict supplies, movement and communication for Tigrayan fighters. But it does not automatically place every rural community under federal control, especially in a region with vast countryside.

Taylor said the TPLF had regrouped in rural areas after losing towns during the previous war. This is the key mechanism: fighters can leave exposed cities, reorganize away from major roads and continue operating from less accessible areas. A military victory in a capital therefore may not equal control of the whole region.

The current advance has constrained the TPLF but has not necessarily ended the conflict. Taylor warned that further fighting could bring more destruction and disruption. Federal authorities would also need to reach Tigrayans, restore services and separate their campaign against the TPLF from the wider population.

Eritrean involvement began during the 2020-2022 war, when Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopian forces against the TPLF. Ethiopia has also accused Eritrea of sending troops across the border and occupying Ethiopian territory. Eritrea denies supporting the TPLF and rejected Ethiopia’s self-defense claim as a declaration of war.

The danger grows when Ethiopian and Eritrean forces operate close together in northern Tigray. A clash, miscalculation or dispute over territory could draw the two countries directly into fighting. The article notes that the advance north brought their forces closer, increasing the risk of a wider regional conflict.

The AP could not independently verify Ethiopia’s allegations. Still, renewed fighting has already undermined the peace agreement that ended the earlier war. The conflict could therefore remain within Ethiopia, or expand across the international border if tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea worsen.

Renewed fighting can damage the systems civilians need to survive. Violence may block humanitarian workers, close roads and interrupt markets, banking and deliveries. In Tigray, that could restrict access to food, fuel, medicine and cash while also preventing federal funding and other supplies from reaching communities.

The article directly calls for restored humanitarian access, federal funding, fuel, medicine and cash. These needs are connected. Fuel helps move supplies, money allows people to buy essentials, and medicine depends on functioning deliveries and health services. When those links fail, hunger and untreated illness can spread alongside violence.

The consequences could be especially severe because researchers estimate about 500,000 civilian deaths from violence, famine and collapsed health services during the war. Taylor warned that more fighting could bring further destruction and disruption. Restoring access is therefore central to protecting civilians and reducing the conflict’s impact.

A civil war is a major armed conflict within one country, usually involving the government and an organized domestic opponent. An interstate war is fought between governments or states. The Tigray conflict began as a struggle involving Ethiopia’s federal forces and the TPLF, making its core a domestic conflict.

A conflict can spill across a border when neighboring states send troops, occupy territory, support opposing forces or exchange fire. The article says Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopian forces and reports Ethiopia’s accusation that Eritrea sent troops across the border. Such involvement creates opportunities for direct clashes between national armies.

The risk is especially high because Ethiopian and Eritrean forces have moved close together in northern Tigray. Eritrea denies supporting the TPLF, and the AP could not verify Ethiopia’s allegations. If the forces fight each other directly, the conflict could widen into a regional interstate war.