Europe may have to secure Ukraine’s victory without U.S. support, German political scientist says

The warning is that Europe and Ukraine may need to pursue Ukraine’s victory without U.S. support. Stefan Meister says Europe needs a strategy aimed at victory, not merely preventing defeat. This matters because U.S. capabilities remain especially important to Ukraine’s defense.

The United States provides intelligence, the Starlink system, and certain weapons. Meister says Washington could restrict intelligence and targeting data, or end that cooperation entirely. France and the United Kingdom already provide some intelligence, including information about specific targets, but their capabilities are smaller and less advanced.

Ukraine should maintain close contact with Washington while preparing for reduced assistance. It should develop its own weapons and defense systems more actively. European countries should accelerate financial and technological help. Meister warns that Europe could not replace U.S. assistance completely, so Ukraine would need greater national capacity alongside European support.

Starlink is a satellite communications system that provides internet connectivity through a network of satellites and user terminals. For military users, that connection can help forces communicate and exchange information when ordinary communications networks are damaged, unavailable, or too far away. The article identifies Starlink as an important U.S.-provided capability.

Its importance is shown by a recent incident involving Ukrainian forces. Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov said SpaceX introduced speed restrictions on Starlink terminals while they were moving. Ukraine’s Defense Forces were reportedly not notified in advance. This illustrates how operational access can depend on decisions by a private company and its system.

The article does not describe Starlink’s full technical role or provide performance figures. It does establish that Starlink is important to Ukraine’s defense capabilities. If access were reduced, Ukraine would need stronger domestic and European communications alternatives, although the article does not name specific replacement systems.

U.S. support is described as particularly important because it combines intelligence, satellite communications through Starlink, and certain weapons. Meister says Europe’s role is becoming more important, but he does not present European capabilities as equal to America’s. This gap matters because these tools support Ukraine’s defense and battlefield decisions.

France and the United Kingdom already provide intelligence, including information about specific targets. However, Meister says their capabilities are significantly inferior to those of the United States in both scale and quality. The article also lists Starlink and certain weapons as U.S. capabilities, but it does not compare European systems for each weapon type.

The practical result is a serious replacement problem. Europe and Ukraine might eventually rely only on European and Ukrainian intelligence, but Europe could not compensate for the end of U.S. assistance 100 percent. Ukraine therefore needs more domestic weapons and defense systems, while Europe must accelerate financial and technological support.

If Washington stopped providing intelligence and targeting data, Ukraine could face extremely serious consequences, according to Meister. Such information helps a military understand events, identify relevant targets, and make decisions. The article does not describe a specific operation that would fail, but it clearly presents U.S. intelligence as especially important.

The key mechanism is the loss of American intelligence support. France and the United Kingdom already provide intelligence, including information on specific targets. Yet Meister says their capabilities are significantly inferior to the United States in both scale and quality. Ukraine might then have to depend only on European and Ukrainian intelligence.

That would not create an equal substitute. Meister says Europe could not compensate for the end of U.S. assistance 100 percent. Ukraine should therefore keep close contact with Washington, assess the consequences of its actions carefully, strengthen its own intelligence-related capacity, and build more domestic weapons and defense systems with European financial and technological help.

The article points to a layered alternative rather than one direct replacement. Ukraine should develop its own weapons and defense systems more actively. It may also need to rely more on Ukrainian intelligence, alongside intelligence from European partners. This matters because U.S. support includes capabilities Europe cannot fully reproduce.

The main mechanism is greater domestic capacity backed by European help. Meister says Ukraine needs money and technological expertise. European partners could provide those resources faster, helping Ukraine build defense systems and weapons at home. France and the United Kingdom already offer intelligence, including target information, so that cooperation could remain part of the response.

These alternatives would reduce dependence, not erase it. Meister says Europe could not compensate for the end of U.S. assistance 100 percent. Ukraine should therefore maintain close contact with Washington, assess possible consequences carefully, and prepare for a future in which European and Ukrainian capabilities carry more of the burden.

Modern military operations depend on several connected capabilities. Intelligence helps leaders understand conditions and identify targets. Communications move information between decision-makers and forces. Weapons act on those decisions. Money and industrial technology sustain the systems over time. If one part weakens, the others may become less effective.

The article gives a clear example. U.S. support includes intelligence, Starlink, and certain weapons. Meister warns that Washington could restrict intelligence and targeting data. France and the United Kingdom provide some target information, but their capabilities are inferior to America’s in scale and quality. Communications and weapons therefore cannot be considered separately from intelligence.

The broader implication is that Ukraine needs a stronger national defense base. Meister calls for more Ukrainian weapons and defense systems, supported by European money and technological expertise. Europe’s role is increasingly important, but the article says it cannot replace U.S. assistance completely. Effective defense requires coordinated support across all these areas.