El Niño has killed hundreds of children in Sudan

Children are dying because drought is shrinking food supplies while disease spreads among people weakened by hunger. Crops are failing, families are skipping meals, and many are eating only porridge. Children are especially vulnerable to malnutrition, cholera and measles.

The drought affects almost half of Sudan and is worst in some areas in decades. Hunger has reached famine levels in two refugee camps in Darfur. At least 1,800 people have died of malnutrition in three rebel-controlled areas of Darfur, according to the faction controlling them. Most reported victims are children.

War and displacement make the crisis harder to survive. Farming and livestock herding have been disrupted, while food and fuel prices have risen. Aid is also short: donors have provided $1.25 billion of the $2.87 billion requested for Sudan. Without more support, deaths could increase before the next rainy season.

El Niño is a natural climate phase involving weakened easterly trade winds and warm water moving east across the tropical Pacific. Air heated by that water rises, and the centre of rising, moist air also shifts eastward. This rearranges atmospheric circulation far beyond the Pacific.

The shifted circulation sends heat through atmospheric waves and encourages air to descend over the Sahel, including Sudan. Descending air warms and dries. It also prevents air from rising, a process needed to produce summer monsoon rainfall. The waves can promote easterly winds that oppose moist air moving inland from the Atlantic.

That remote effect is worsening an already dangerous crisis. El Niño has reduced rainfall in Sudan, withered grazing vegetation and damaged sorghum crops. Forecasts also point to drought in southern Africa and heavy rain in the Horn of Africa. The article warns that the warming event could intensify further.

Sudan’s food crisis is already enormous: almost 29 million people, or 62 per cent of the population, are being forced to eat less or go hungry. The crisis is not yet classified as a famine across Darfur, but hunger has reached famine levels in two refugee camps there.

The immediate pressure comes from drought and a spotty harvest. Families are skipping meals or eating only porridge. They may not have enough food to store or enough income to buy supplies before the next rainy season begins in June. That creates a dangerous gap between harvests.

The risk is growing because war has disrupted farming and herding, while food and fuel prices have risen. The IPC calls the situation a humanitarian catastrophe of historic proportions. Manon Radosta of CARE warns that it would not take much to tip conditions into widespread famine, although the timing and scale cannot be predicted.

The drought is striking a country whose food system has already been damaged by war. Sudan’s conflict has displaced 14 million people and disrupted farming and livestock herding. Many people therefore cannot grow crops, tend animals or remain near the resources they once depended on.

Darfur shows how conflict and hunger reinforce each other. Earlier violence killed about 300,000 people, and the later civil war brought massacres of thousands of non-Arab civilians. The article says some massacres bore the hallmarks of genocide. Refugee camps now face famine-level hunger, while markets and water sources are reportedly targeted by drone strikes.

Displacement also raises the cost of survival. Food and fuel prices have shot up, and disrupted harvests reduce both supplies and income. Families already weakened by war have less ability to absorb a failed rainy season. Unless aid increases and warring parties stop attacking essential sources of food and water, drought-related hunger could become a widespread famine.

Rain-fed agriculture depends directly on seasonal rainfall to grow crops. Sudan has very little protection when those rains fail because 90 per cent of its agriculture relies on rain rather than irrigation. A dry season therefore threatens both harvests and the livestock that depend on vegetation.

El Niño has reduced rainfall and withered grazing vegetation. Sorghum, Sudan’s main staple, is among the affected crops. When crops fail, families lose food and farmers lose income. When pasture dries, livestock herding also becomes harder, removing another source of food and money.

The danger is especially high because the drought follows years of war and displacement. People may be unable to farm, store food or buy replacements. The article says a spotty harvest could leave families without supplies before the next rainy season in June. That gap could sharply increase the risk of widespread famine unless aid reaches people quickly.

Preventing famine requires keeping people supplied before the next rainy season. Donor countries need to provide the full humanitarian appeal, because the UN says Sudan needs $2.87 billion this year but has received only $1.25 billion. The article says the funding gap is already preventing aid groups from keeping people alive.

Countries should also pressure the warring parties to stop targeting markets and water sources with drone strikes. These places are essential for buying food, collecting water and maintaining local trade. Protecting them would reduce the damage caused by both conflict and drought. The article also identifies external backing for the rival sides.

Speed matters because families are skipping meals and may be unable to store food or earn money after the poor harvest. Aid must reach refugee camps and other vulnerable areas before supplies run out. More funding and safer access could prevent hunger from becoming widespread famine, though the article says the outcome cannot be predicted.

During El Niño, weakened easterly trade winds allow warm water to move east across the tropical Pacific. Air heated by that water rises, so the centre of rising, moist air shifts eastward too. This changes atmospheric circulation across distant regions, not just near the Pacific.

A 2025 review paper described heat moving east and west through atmospheric waves. Over the Sahel, including Sudan, those waves encourage air to descend rather than rise. Descending air warms and dries. The waves also promote easterly winds that push against moist air flowing inland from the Atlantic Ocean.

Because summer monsoon rainfall depends on rising air and incoming moisture, this pattern reduces rainfall. Sudan’s crops and grazing vegetation then receive less water. With 90 per cent of agriculture relying on rain, the atmospheric shift can become a food crisis. The article links this mechanism to the drought now worsening hunger and famine risk.