Trump waives Russia oil curbs amid 100% tariff threat: What it means for India

President Donald Trump waived the sanctions, restrictions, and duties created by the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. He said the waiver served the national interest of the United States. It matters because the law targeted major buyers of Russian oil and gas, including India and China.

India is Russia’s largest crude-oil customer and depends on those supplies to meet its energy needs. Without the waiver, the United States could have imposed tariffs of up to 100% on Indian goods entering the US. Such duties could have damaged trade because the US is India’s largest trading partner.

The waiver also keeps Russian crude economically usable for Indian refiners. That is important while Middle East tensions have disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. India can continue buying Russian oil, although tighter supplies and stronger Chinese demand may still raise costs later in the year.

The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 gave President Trump broad authority to sanction Russia. It also allowed the United States to punish countries that continued buying Russian oil or gas. The law was principally backed in Congress by the late Senator Lindsey Graham.

Its main mechanism was economic pressure. Countries knowingly purchasing Russian energy 30 days after enactment could face measures under the law. The legislation also covered the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or gas and countries among the top five helping Russia evade sanctions. Tariffs could reach 100% on their goods entering the United States.

Trump waived the provisions before several were due to begin. The waiver means the law’s threatened penalties will not immediately disrupt India’s Russian-oil purchases. However, the legislation shows how energy buying could affect broader trade between India, China, Russia, and the United States.

The legislation allowed tariffs of up to 100% on goods entering the United States. That was an unusually large proposed penalty because it could sharply increase the cost of affected imports. The measure was aimed not only at Russia but also at countries continuing to buy Russian energy.

The tariffs could apply within 30 days to goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or gas. They could also cover countries that knowingly purchased Russian oil or gas 30 days after enactment. Countries among the top five helping Russia evade sanctions were included as well. India and China were specifically identified as major buyers.

The provisions were due to take effect when Trump issued his waiver. As a result, the threatened duties did not immediately apply. The possible reach was broader than energy itself: the penalties would have affected goods entering the US from targeted countries, potentially straining their wider trade relationships.

If the tariffs had taken effect, Indian exporters could have faced severe damage because the United States is India’s largest trading partner. A tariff of up to 100% would make Indian goods much more expensive in the US market. That could weaken trade while India was also negotiating a US trade deal.

Sanctions could have created a second problem. They might have made Russian crude economically unviable for Indian refiners. India would then need to replace a major source of oil, potentially with more expensive supplies. The loss would matter because Russia remained India’s single largest oil supplier.

Fuel costs and supply risks could therefore have risen together. Middle East tensions had already disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting crude oil, LPG, and LNG supplies. The waiver preserves Russian purchases for now, but India still faces tighter Russian availability and stronger competition from China.

Russia gradually became India’s largest crude-oil supplier after Moscow’s war with Ukraine began. The main shift came when European sanctions restricted Russia’s traditional oil sales. Russia then sought buyers elsewhere, especially India and China, and offered crude at deep discounts.

India took advantage of those discounted supplies. Russian oil became a major part of India’s import basket, with purchases reaching record highs a few months ago. This helped Indian refiners continue securing crude while the country faced substantial energy needs.

That relationship continued despite changing US pressure. Trump first imposed a 25% penal tariff on India for Russian crude purchases, raising the total tariff to 50%. Imports later declined after sanctions hit two Russian oil majors, but India continued procuring from Russia. The latest waiver allows that trade to continue without the new proposed duties.

The tariff threat has receded, but India’s physical access to Russian crude may still tighten. Indian refiners expect Russian supplies to become more limited in October and November as exports decline. The problem is availability, not simply the legal cost of buying the oil.

China is intensifying the competition. It is the world’s largest crude importer and has increased purchases as the Iran war disrupted Middle East supplies. Reports cited by the article say Chinese buyers were willing to book cargoes in advance and pay firmer prices than Indian buyers. That gives them an advantage when shipments are scarce.

India may therefore need to buy more expensive alternatives for the rest of the year. The waiver protects Indian trade from proposed US duties, but it cannot guarantee Russian cargoes. India is also diversifying its energy basket because Middle East shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been hit.

Crude oil is the raw liquid petroleum extracted before it is refined into usable fuels and other products. Countries import it because transport, industry, and energy systems depend on refined oil. India’s large crude needs make reliable supplies especially important.

Prices can rise when supply routes are disrupted or when big buyers compete for limited cargoes. The article describes Middle East tensions affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. It also says China has increased purchases and booked cargoes in advance while paying firmer prices than India. Those actions can make available oil scarcer for other buyers.

The result is pressure to find alternatives, often at higher prices. The article says India’s shortfall could push it toward more expensive supplies for the rest of the year. It also links the broader supply crunch to Middle East tensions, showing how regional disruptions can affect energy costs beyond the countries directly involved.