Dispatch from Moldova: How to restore NATO’s deterrence against Russia’s escalating drone attacks

Russian drones repeatedly entered Moldova’s airspace. Nine incursions occurred during one week in October, and more than twenty occurred during September. Some drones detonated and caused damage. Anonymous Telegram messages blamed Moldova’s support for Ukraine, linking the incursions to a pressure campaign.

The attacks also reached civilian shipping. A drone struck one ship in Romania’s economic zone, killing two people. Two ships were then hit near Bulgaria. Two sailors were injured on one, while the other sank and its crew was presumed dead. Two more ships were attacked near Bulgaria the following Tuesday.

These events show a widening and more dangerous campaign. The article describes attacks involving Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria, alongside earlier incursions into Poland and the war against Ukraine. The attacks threaten civilians, test borders, and aim to frighten societies supporting Ukraine.

A drone incursion occurs when an unmanned aircraft crosses into another country’s controlled airspace. The aircraft may be gathering information, delivering explosives, testing defenses, or sending a political warning. Even without a direct strike, the breach challenges the country’s control over its territory.

The article describes Russian drones entering Moldova and Poland, with some Moldovan incursions detonating and causing damage. A Russian drone also struck a ship in Romania’s economic zone. Other drones hit merchant ships near Bulgaria. These actions move beyond accidental trespass because they involved repeated entries, explosions, and targeted damage.

That is why the article calls them military attacks. Their effect is not only physical. They also create fear, pressure governments, and test whether neighboring countries will respond. The danger rises when attacks are repeated, deliberate, and close to alliance territory.

The article describes Russian drone activity affecting at least five countries: Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, and Poland. Moldova recorded more than twenty airspace violations in September, after nine in the preceding week. Poland experienced nearly two dozen drones in one night in September 2025.

Five merchant ships were attacked in the incidents near Romania and Bulgaria. One was struck near Romania. Two were hit near Bulgaria the next day, and two more were attacked near Bulgaria the following Tuesday. The reported human consequences include two deaths, two injuries, eleven missing sailors, one saved sailor, and fifteen rescued crew members.

These figures show both geographic and operational expansion. They do not capture the whole toll. The crew of the ship that sank quickly was missing and presumed dead, but its size was not given. Repeated attacks also suggest continuing escalation rather than isolated incidents.

The article presents two linked Russian goals. First, Putin wants to restore Russian control over territory that once belonged to the Soviet Union, or possibly more. Second, he wants to weaken the European security structure built after World War II, with NATO as its institutional cornerstone.

The methods vary by country. Russia invaded Georgia and Ukraine, while it pressures Moldova through disinformation, election interference, and drone incursions. Against NATO countries and partners, it uses drones, cyberattacks, sabotage, information operations, harassment, and alleged assassination attempts. Anonymous messages blaming Moldova’s Ukraine policy add a direct psychological element.

The broader aim is to frighten populations and undermine support for Ukraine. Russia also wants doubt about NATO’s willingness to defend its members and division among allies. If those effects grow, the article warns, Russia may face less resistance and the risk of wider war may increase.

NATO’s security depends partly on whether potential attackers believe its members will defend one another. Attacks near allied territory test that belief without immediately creating the political shock of striking a city or military base. They can also expose gaps in surveillance, air defense, and decision-making.

The article describes Russian drones entering Poland and striking ships in the economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria. The ships were civilian, but the attacks caused deaths, injuries, sinking, and missing crews. A Bulgarian ship was hit by at least two drones. These incidents therefore combine physical danger with deliberate pressure.

The wider risk is political. Putin appears to want fear among NATO populations and doubts about the Alliance’s resolve. If repeated attacks receive only defensive or weak responses, deterrence may erode. The article says that could encourage further escalation and increase the danger of a broader European war.

NATO is a military alliance and the institutional cornerstone of the transatlantic community’s European security architecture. Its collective-defense system is designed to deter attacks on member states and support a common response. The source does not detail its legal procedures, but its central purpose is defending allied security.

Moldova is treated differently because the article identifies it as outside NATO’s member-state framework. Russian drones can still pressure Moldova and challenge European security. Ships in the economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria are also not necessarily military targets, but attacks near allied countries can endanger civilians and test their governments’ ability to protect surrounding waters.

This creates a wider strategic problem. Russia can avoid directly attacking NATO cities or forces while still threatening alliance members, partners, and commercial routes. Such incidents may expose disagreements about responses. They also support the article’s warning that NATO’s deterrent posture must be restored.

Deterrence is the effort to prevent aggression by convincing an adversary that attacking will bring unacceptable costs. Military capability supplies the means to respond. Political will shows that leaders are prepared to use those means. Without both, weapons may not create credible restraint.

The article says Russia’s attacks have usually produced little meaningful Western response. Reactions have mostly been defensive, including NATO’s Eastern Sentry and Baltic Sentry operations. Punitive measures, such as economic sanctions, have been weak and incremental. That pattern can suggest that escalation carries limited consequences.

The result is a failing deterrent posture, according to the article. Russia’s campaign may continue to grow if its leaders see hesitation, division, or low costs. Restoring deterrence therefore requires more than counting incursions. Western countries must understand the campaign’s logic and respond in ways that protect territory, support Ukraine, and demonstrate resolve.