Everything you need to know one year ahead of Poland’s parliamentary elections

Poland’s parliamentary election must normally occur during the final 30 days of the current four-year parliamentary term. That term began on 13 November 2023. Because Polish elections are held on Sundays, four dates are currently possible: 17, 24 or 31 October, and 7 November.

The president chooses the election date. Karol Nawrocki must announce it no later than 90 days before the parliamentary term ends. The article notes that 1 November and 11 November are theoretically possible too, because they are public holidays, although they are not among the four usual Sunday options.

The timing is not completely guaranteed. Early elections could be called instead. If the scheduled election goes ahead, voters will choose representatives for both houses of parliament. The result will determine who governs for the next four years, but close polling could produce coalition uncertainty, political chaos, or another election.

Poland’s parliament has two houses: the Sejm and the Senate. The Sejm is the lower house and is described as the more powerful chamber. Its members are elected through proportional representation. The Senate is the upper house, whose members are elected using a first-past-the-post system.

The Sejm has a central role in forming governments. A proposed government must win a vote of confidence in the Sejm. If the president’s nominee fails, the Sejm can choose an alternative prime minister. Further failed confidence votes can eventually lead to parliament being dissolved and new elections.

The Senate has 100 members, each elected in an individual district. The candidate with the most votes wins that district’s seat. Thus, the two houses use different election systems, while the Sejm is especially important for deciding whether a government has enough parliamentary support to govern.

Poland’s parliamentary election contests 560 seats altogether. The Sejm has 460 members, making it the larger and more powerful chamber. The Senate has 100 members. Voters therefore choose representatives for both houses in the same parliamentary election.

The Sejm’s 460 seats are allocated through proportional representation. Parties receive seats broadly according to their national vote share, with the D’Hondt method used to distribute seats from party electoral lists. Parties generally need at least 5% nationally to participate in that allocation, while coalitions standing on one list need 8%.

The Senate’s 100 seats are decided differently. Each Senate district elects one candidate, and the candidate receiving the most votes wins. The division matters because government formation depends on confidence in the Sejm. Winning Senate seats does not by itself allow a party or coalition to form the government.

Proportional representation aims to distribute the Sejm’s 460 seats broadly in line with parties’ national vote shares. This gives parties a share of parliamentary seats that reflects their support, rather than awarding every district to only one winner. It matters because the resulting seat total determines which parties can support a government.

The D’Hondt method allocates seats from electoral lists put forward by parties. However, a party normally must win at least 5% of the national vote to enter the Sejm. A coalition of parties standing on one electoral list faces a higher 8% threshold. Votes for a party that misses the relevant threshold do not contribute to its parliamentary representation.

This creates a major strategic effect. A party polling near 5% can gain seats if it crosses the line, while falling short can leave it without representation. The successful parties then divide the available seats, changing coalition possibilities and the balance of power.

The 5% threshold changes how votes translate into parliamentary power. A party that receives less than 5% nationally is excluded from the Sejm’s seat allocation. Its voters still cast ballots, but the party receives no Sejm representatives. This effectively increases the relative weight of parties that clear the threshold.

The article gives a current example. The ruling coalition’s Polish People’s Party is polling around 3%, while Poland 2050 is near 1%. Together, they are generally aligned with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s side, but standing alone could leave both below the threshold. Their votes would then not help that bloc win seats.

The right also faces this risk. Development Plus is polling around 5%; falling below the threshold would hurt the opposition. Current potential blocs are close, at about 47% and 48%, so excluded votes could decide which side can assemble a government.

A Polish government needs enough support in the Sejm to win a vote of confidence. After the election, the president first designates a prime minister. That person must form a government, almost certainly by bringing several parties together in a coalition, and then secure the Sejm’s approval.

If the first attempt fails, the Sejm chooses an alternative prime minister. That nominee must also try to form a government and win confidence. If the second attempt fails, the president gets another opportunity to appoint a prime minister. This third government needs only a simple majority, rather than the absolute majority required in the earlier votes.

If the third and final attempt also fails, parliament is dissolved and new elections are called. The article notes that this happened during the 2023 formation process. Close polling and threshold effects make coalition negotiations especially important after the next election.

In a parliamentary democracy, winning the election does not automatically mean forming a government. A party or group of parties must command enough support in the elected chamber to pass a confidence vote. This links executive power to the composition of parliament and prevents a government from governing without sufficient backing.

Poland’s rules show the mechanism clearly. The president nominates a prime minister, who forms a government that is almost certainly a coalition. The Sejm then votes. If the nominee fails, the Sejm can choose another prime minister. A later attempt requires only a simple majority, making a minority government easier to form.

These rules make election results and coalition negotiations inseparable. Parties may need to compromise to reach a confidence majority. If every formation attempt fails, parliament is dissolved and new elections are called. Close polling therefore raises the possibility of prolonged uncertainty after election day.