Brazil’s election could determine the fate of the Amazon

Brazil’s presidential contest is also a decision about how quickly the Amazon may be cleared. The rainforest stores enormous amounts of carbon and helps produce regional rainfall. Its condition therefore affects Brazil, nearby communities, agriculture, and the global climate.

Lula promises net-zero deforestation by 2030. Flávio Bolsonaro promises zero illegal deforestation by 2029, while supporting faster environmental licensing and an agribusiness-friendly agenda. Critics fear that weaker oversight could repeat Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, when clearing increased, environmental notices fell, and Amazon carbon emissions nearly doubled in 2019 and 2020 compared with 2010–2018 averages.

The stakes are already high. About 22 percent of the Brazilian Amazon has been cleared, while researchers commonly place a danger zone between 20 and 25 percent, or 22 and 28 percent under likely warming. A Bolsonaro victory could accelerate clearing, potentially pushing the forest closer to a shift toward savanna and degraded forest.

The candidates’ promises sound similar until their definitions are examined. Lula promises net-zero deforestation by 2030. Flávio Bolsonaro promises zero illegal deforestation by 2029. The distinction matters because Brazil’s Forest Code permits landowners to clear up to 20 percent of their Amazon properties, so Bolsonaro’s pledge does not necessarily stop legal clearing.

Their regulatory approaches also differ. Bolsonaro’s platform calls for an “agile, modern” environmental licensing process that will not block people seeking investment and jobs. His agenda is friendly to agribusiness and deregulation. Lula’s stated target is broader, focusing on net-zero deforestation rather than only illegal clearing.

The article links these choices to enforcement. Monica de Bolle says a Bolsonaro victory could repeat Jair Bolsonaro’s term, when clearing rose, environmental infraction notices plummeted, and Amazon carbon emissions nearly doubled in 2019 and 2020 compared with 2010–2018 averages. Under Lula’s current term, clearing has fallen each year.

The Amazon is already close to, or within, published estimates of a possible tipping-point range. About 18 percent of the entire Amazon, which spans nine countries, has been cleared. In the Brazilian Amazon, the figure is higher: 22 percent. That makes Brazil’s portion especially vulnerable under the commonly cited threshold.

Nobre and Thomas Lovejoy first suggested a danger range of 20 to 25 percent clearing in 2018. Their concern was that deforestation, climate change, and widespread fire could reinforce one another. A Nature study published in May estimated a range closer to 22 to 28 percent when combined with 1.5 to 1.9 degrees Celsius of global warming by mid-century.

These figures are estimates, not a precise boundary. They show, however, that the Brazilian Amazon is already at the lower edge of the newer range and above the lower end of the older one. Continued clearing could therefore increase the risk of a major ecological shift.

A tipping point is a threshold beyond which the Amazon’s forest system may no longer sustain itself as a rainforest. The core problem is the water cycle. Trees draw water from the ground and release it into the atmosphere, helping create rainfall. If too much forest disappears, that cycle may weaken.

The proposed threshold is not caused by clearing alone. Nobre and Thomas Lovejoy warned that deforestation, climate change, and widespread fire could create “negative synergies.” These forces could form a feedback loop: less forest means less moisture, while hotter and drier conditions make further forest loss more likely.

Scientists cannot identify one exact boundary. The commonly cited estimate is 20 to 25 percent clearing across Amazonia. A Nature study put the range closer to 22 to 28 percent when paired with 1.5 to 1.9 degrees Celsius of warming by mid-century. The Brazilian Amazon has already reached about 22 percent clearing.

Crossing the tipping point could transform the Amazon from a rainforest into savanna and degraded forest. The change would damage the forest’s water cycle and cause a net release of planet-warming carbon. It would also threaten people who live in the region and industries that depend on a healthy forest.

The mechanism is a dangerous feedback loop. Deforestation, climate change, and widespread fire can work together to reduce moisture and weaken rainfall. As the forest becomes drier, it may struggle to regenerate. Nearby soybean farms could then receive less rain because the trees would no longer move as much water into the atmosphere.

The global consequences could be substantial because the Amazon stores about 175 billion metric tons of carbon, equal to roughly 15 years of global carbon dioxide emissions. The exact threshold remains uncertain, but about 22 percent of the Brazilian Amazon is already cleared. Faster clearing would raise the risk.

Brazil’s environmental system affects clearing through both rules and enforcement. The Forest Code permits landowners to cut up to 20 percent of their Amazon properties. Environmental licensing can also control or delay projects. Enforcement agencies matter because illegal clearing must be detected and penalized for legal limits to have practical force.

The article describes two contrasting approaches. Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform calls for an “agile, modern” licensing process that will not serve as a way to block investment and jobs. Monica de Bolle warns that a Bolsonaro administration could again dismantle the enforcement structure. During Jair Bolsonaro’s term, environmental infraction notices plummeted while clearing increased.

The scale of possible illegality is striking. MapBiomas estimated that 97 percent of Amazon land clearing in 2025 showed signs of illegality. Under Lula’s current term, clearing rates have fallen every year. Future rates will depend heavily on whether licensing and enforcement are strengthened or weakened.

The Amazon helps create its own weather through a forest-and-water cycle. Trees draw water from the ground and ultimately release it into the atmosphere. That moisture contributes to rainfall across the region. The article says this process accounts for up to half of the Amazon’s rainfall, making the forest important to regional climate and agriculture.

The forest also acts as a huge carbon store. It holds something on the order of 175 billion metric tons of carbon, equivalent to roughly 15 years of global carbon dioxide emissions. Keeping that carbon in forests helps prevent it from becoming additional planet-warming emissions.

Deforestation threatens both services at once. Removing trees can weaken rainfall, while fires and forest loss can release carbon. If enough clearing combines with warming, the water cycle may no longer sustain rainforest conditions. Nearby soybean farms could lose rain, and the degraded forest could become a net carbon source rather than a major carbon store.