SNP says campaign for next referendum on independence ‘has already begun’

The proposed second referendum would let people in Scotland vote again on whether Scotland should become independent from the United Kingdom. The SNP is campaigning for that vote because it believes support for independence can grow and that Scotland’s political future is changing.

John Swinney announced Choose Scotland at the SNP conference in Aberdeen. He called it the party’s “most sophisticated campaign in history.” The campaign will argue for the benefits of independence and seek to build a broad consensus for leaving the union. It has a six-figure war chest.

The vote is not scheduled, and Swinney cannot call it alone. SNP figures see a general election as the route to creating pressure for one. They argue that a strong result, especially in a hung Westminster parliament, could give the SNP leverage to negotiate with the next UK government.

The key legal authority belongs to the UK Parliament at Westminster. A legally binding referendum on ending the United Kingdom would change the country’s constitutional arrangements, which are reserved to Westminster rather than controlled solely by the Scottish Parliament.

That means the Scottish government cannot simply set a binding vote by passing its own law. The UK Supreme Court confirmed in 2022 that Holyrood could not legislate unilaterally for an independence referendum without Westminster’s agreement. In the article, this political reality appears in the statement that the Westminster government would have to grant a second vote.

The SNP therefore wants to create political pressure instead. Its leaders hope a strong general-election result could leave them holding the balance of power. They would then seek negotiations with the next Westminster government, although a strong election result would not automatically authorize a referendum.

The SNP could make a major comeback at Westminster. It currently has just eight MPs, but polling cited by party figures suggests it might win somewhere between 40 and 50 seats at the next general election. That would give it far greater influence than it has now.

Lara Bird described the possible increase as “huge” and linked it to negotiations over another independence vote. However, the forecasts are not consistent. The latest MRP polling by Electoral Calculus predicted a narrower SNP result of 28 seats and a narrow Labour victory. Earlier polls suggested the SNP could win more.

The precise number is therefore uncertain. Even 28 seats would be a substantial rise from eight. A result nearer 40 or 50 could make the SNP central to forming a progressive government if no party won an overall Westminster majority. Its influence would depend on the final seat totals and negotiations.

A hung Westminster parliament means no party has enough MPs to govern alone. Smaller parties can then become essential to passing legislation or supporting a government. The SNP believes a strong result could leave it holding the balance of power between larger parties.

The mechanism is negotiation. Jenny Gilruth said the SNP could have strong support across Scotland and regain seats. Lara Bird said the party could negotiate another poll with the next Westminster government if the overall result were tight. Possible arrangements could include support agreements or different coalitions, including a potential Labour-Liberal Democrat combination.

This would give the SNP a bargaining position, not an automatic referendum. The party would need to persuade other Westminster politicians to meet it and set out a plan. Its leverage would depend on how many seats it won and whether another government needed its votes to govern.

If the SNP held the balance of power, larger parties might need its MPs to form or sustain a Westminster government. That would turn the SNP from a relatively small opposition group into a potentially decisive parliamentary partner. Its votes could matter on government formation and legislation.

The key mechanism would be negotiation. SNP figures suggest they could seek commitments from the next government, including a route to another Scottish independence referendum. Lara Bird said the party could put the issue to Westminster and place the onus on the government to meet it at the table. This could involve a hung parliament or different coalition arrangements.

The result would increase political pressure, but it would not guarantee a referendum. The SNP would still have to reach an agreement with other parties, while the Westminster government would retain the legal power to authorize the vote. The final outcome would depend on election arithmetic and negotiations.

Scotland’s first independence referendum was held in September 2014. Voters rejected independence: 55.3% voted No and 44.7% voted Yes. The result kept Scotland within the United Kingdom and established the previous nationwide verdict on the constitutional question.

The current SNP campaign seeks a second vote because it argues that the political context is no longer static. John Swinney says the “stars were aligning” for independence and describes changing relationships among the UK’s nations. Choose Scotland is intended to renew the argument and build a broader consensus for leaving the union.

The earlier result therefore shapes the campaign in two ways. It is the starting point the SNP must overcome, and it provides the precedent for a nationwide vote. The article does not discuss the 2014 figures or campaign in detail. It focuses instead on the SNP’s new organizing effort and route to another referendum.

The United Kingdom’s devolution system divides responsibilities between Westminster and Scotland’s Parliament. Holyrood makes laws and decisions in devolved areas, such as health, education and parts of transport. Westminster remains responsible for reserved matters, including the constitution and the Union. This arrangement gives Scotland self-government without making it an independent state.

The division matters directly here. An independence referendum concerns Scotland’s constitutional status and the structure of the United Kingdom. Because that subject is reserved, the Scottish Parliament cannot create a legally binding referendum by itself. The UK Parliament can temporarily transfer authority, as happened for the 2014 vote, or Westminster can authorize another vote.

The article reflects this division by saying the Westminster government would have to grant a second vote. The SNP’s campaign is therefore political as well as electoral. It aims to win enough Westminster influence to press the UK government for authorization, rather than relying on Holyrood alone.