South Texas Latino voters who flipped for Trump in 2024 are up for grabs in 2026

South Texas Latino voters are competitive because they have not remained firmly tied to one party. They leaned Democratic for years, then moved rightward in 2024 and helped Donald Trump win. Now, economic concerns, Trump's low approval ratings, and dissatisfaction with immigration policies may be pulling some back toward Democrats.

Texas' 28th District shows why the group matters. Voters there chose Trump by seven percentage points in 2024 after backing Joe Biden four years earlier. Yet they also reelected Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar to an 11th term. That split shows presidential and congressional choices can move differently within the same electorate.

The 2026 evidence is mixed but troubling for Republicans. A Texas survey found Democratic statewide candidates leading among likely Hispanic voters by 2-to-1. A national poll found 59% preferred Democratic control of Congress. Close races involving Tano Tijerina, Monica De La Cruz, and Eric Flores could therefore help determine congressional control.

A U.S. midterm election is a nationwide election held halfway through a president's four-year term. Voters choose members of the House of Representatives and a portion of the Senate. They also vote in state and local contests, but congressional races are central to national power.

Congress is divided into two chambers. House members serve two-year terms, so every House seat is contested during each midterm. Senators serve longer terms, so only some Senate seats appear on the ballot. The party winning more seats in a chamber usually controls its leadership and agenda.

That makes midterms especially important when the congressional balance is close. The article says Republicans are trying to cling to narrow majorities in both the House and Senate. It identifies three competitive South Texas House races as among the closest in the country. Their outcomes could help decide which party controls the next Congress.

Voting in Texas' 28th Congressional District changed sharply in presidential races. The district supported Joe Biden in 2020, then chose Donald Trump by seven percentage points in 2024. The article describes this as part of a broader rightward movement among Hispanic and Latino voters nationwide.

The key comparison is the direction of the change, not a stated 2020 margin. In 2020, Biden carried the district. Four years later, Trump carried it by seven points. This means the district moved from Democratic presidential support to a clear Republican presidential result. The article does not provide the exact 2020 vote margin.

The change did not apply equally to every race. District voters also reelected Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar to an 11th term. That contrast makes the district a useful example of changing presidential preferences alongside continued support for a Democratic congressional incumbent.

The 28th District's result is an example of split-ticket voting. Voters supported Donald Trump for president in 2024 but also reelected Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar. Presidential and congressional contests are separate choices, so voters can select different parties for different offices.

The concrete contrast is striking. The district had backed Joe Biden four years earlier, then gave Trump a seven-point victory. At the same time, Cuellar won reelection to an 11th term. The article does not identify one reason for this combination, such as a specific issue or personal factor. It presents the result as evidence that party support is not uniform across races.

That pattern matters for 2026. Tano Tijerina is challenging Cuellar after switching from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party. Even after the district moved right in the presidential contest, Cuellar's continued strength shows that Republicans cannot assume a presidential win guarantees victory in the congressional race.

The article offers several signs that Latino support for Republicans may have weakened since 2024. Republicans had hoped the Hispanic rightward shift was a permanent realignment after Trump's victory. By 2026, however, high consumer prices, Trump's low approval ratings, and concerns that immigration policies have gone too far are hurting Republican enthusiasm.

The polling numbers are especially clear. A Cook Political Report survey found Democratic statewide candidates leading Texas Republicans by 2-to-1 among likely Hispanic voters. A national NBC News/Telemundo poll found 27% of Latino respondents approved of Trump, while 59% preferred Democrats to control Congress. The Republican House super PAC also pulled millions in ads supporting Tano Tijerina.

These figures do not guarantee Democratic victories. They do show a changed political environment from 2024, when Latino voters helped Trump win a second term. Close South Texas races now appear more uncertain, and Republicans face difficulty defending their newly gained support among Latino voters.

The races matter because Republicans are trying to cling to narrow majorities in both the House and Senate. The article identifies the Cuellar-Tijerina, De La Cruz-Pulido, and Flores-Gonzalez contests as among the closest in the country. Their results could help determine control of the next Congress, especially in the House.

In the 28th District, Republican Tano Tijerina is challenging Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar. In the 15th District, Republican Monica De La Cruz faces Tejano music star Bobby Pulido. In the 34th District, Republican Eric Flores is trying to defeat Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzalez. The Cook Political Report lists the De La Cruz and Flores races as toss-ups, while Tijerina's district is lean Democratic.

These specific contests are House races, so they directly affect House control. They do not individually decide the Senate. However, the article places them within the broader fight for both chambers, where a small number of close contests may determine whether Republicans retain their majorities.

Congressional districts group voters into geographic constituencies, and each district elects one House representative. Before the general election, political parties choose nominees, usually through a primary or another nomination process. Candidates can also change parties, as Tano Tijerina did before running as a Republican. The general election then decides who represents the district.

The article shows this process in South Texas. Tijerina is challenging Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar in the 28th District. Monica De La Cruz is running against Bobby Pulido in the 15th, while Eric Flores is challenging Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th. Each contest gives voters a choice between candidates seeking the same House seat.

After all districts vote, the party with more House seats controls that chamber. Senate elections work similarly, but only some Senate seats are contested in a given cycle. Because Republicans hold narrow majorities, the article says these close races could help decide control of both the House and Senate.