Shipping attacks threaten Turkey's resolve to keep warships out of Black Sea

A wave of attacks has brought the Russia-Ukraine war into the waters of NATO members Bulgaria and Romania. Cargo ships have been struck by drones, showing that maritime traffic is increasingly exposed even outside the main Russian and Ukrainian targets.

On Thursday, two chemical tankers were hit close to a Romanian port. During the previous week, two similar attacks took place in Bulgarian waters. The article identifies Russia as NATO’s prime suspect because Moscow is intensifying attacks on Ukrainian trade, although the reported strikes are described as suspected attacks.

The attacks occurred along a key Ukrainian shipping route. They have killed or left missing more than 20 sailors and triggered calls for stronger Black Sea security. NATO is preparing an emergency discussion, while Turkey’s position will shape whether the alliance can respond with naval forces.

The Turkish Straits are the maritime passage controlled by Turkey that connects the Black Sea with waters leading toward the Mediterranean. Their location makes them the gateway for military and commercial vessels moving between the Black Sea and the wider maritime system.

The 1936 Montreux Convention regulates how warships use this passage. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Turkey has used its position under the convention to block Russian and Ukrainian warships, as well as NATO military vessels from countries without a Black Sea coast. Turkey has argued for a diplomatic solution.

This arrangement makes Ankara central to any NATO naval response. NATO could consider sending ships to help protect Black Sea waters, but those vessels would need access through the Turkish Straits. Turkey therefore controls a key practical step in the alliance’s security planning.

The attacks have killed or left missing more than 20 sailors. That figure shows the human cost of strikes that are also disrupting commercial shipping in and around the Black Sea. The danger now reaches NATO-member waters, not only ports directly controlled by Russia or Ukraine.

The targeted vessels were traveling along a key Ukrainian shipping route. The article links the attacks to Russia’s intensifying assault on Ukrainian trade. Russian and Ukrainian ports are heavily targeted, and the route offers Ukraine an important channel for moving commercial cargo by sea.

The route matters because attacks can make ships, crews, and insurers wary of using it. The article describes the latest strikes as evidence that there is “no safe place” in the Black Sea. NATO is therefore considering stronger deterrence and defence measures, while Turkey’s access decision remains crucial.

NATO ships could strengthen protection for commercial traffic and make the alliance’s deterrence in the Black Sea more credible. Their presence could help answer attacks that Bulgaria and Romania’s smaller, aging navies may struggle to handle alone.

The key mechanism is access. Turkey controls the Turkish Straits under the 1936 Montreux Convention and has blocked Russian, Ukrainian, and some NATO warships since the invasion began. NATO cannot simply move naval forces into the Black Sea without Ankara’s cooperation. Allowing NATO ships while excluding Russian vessels could also provoke Moscow.

Turkey fears that such a step could pull it directly into the war. The article says Ankara has kept its powerful navy on the sidelines despite attacks on Turkish-owned cargo ships. NATO may therefore rely first on air defence and diplomatic coordination, unless attacks force a policy change.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Turkey has blocked Russian and Ukrainian warships, along with NATO military vessels from countries without a Black Sea coast. Ankara has presented the policy as support for a diplomatic solution and a way to limit the conflict’s expansion.

Turkey’s concern is escalation. International relations expert Huseyin Bagci says the government sees NATO access as a possible provocation that could drag Turkey into the war. Ankara also depends heavily on Black Sea trade and has kept its own powerful navy away from direct involvement.

Russia gives Turkey additional reasons for caution. Rosatom is completing a major nuclear power station at Akkuyu, which Ankara considers important for reducing energy dependence. Turkey also fears that letting NATO ships in while excluding Russian warships could prompt Moscow to challenge Turkey’s role as gatekeeper of the Black Sea.

NATO has an option that does not require sending warships through the Turkish Straits. The alliance could deploy air-defence systems to counter drones and protect Bulgarian and Romanian waters. This would address the immediate attack method while avoiding some risks linked to a naval deployment.

The need is clear because drones have disrupted maritime traffic and struck cargo vessels near NATO members. By placing air defence near vulnerable waters, NATO could help shield ships without creating the same question about warship access under the Montreux Convention.

Bulgaria and Romania cannot easily manage the operation alone. The article says their navies are not equipped for such a mission, and their Cold War-era ships are nearing the end of their lifespan. Turkey’s cooperation would still matter for broader NATO planning, especially if air defence proved insufficient and larger vessels were needed.

Strategic waterways matter because they connect regions while concentrating movement through a limited passage. A country that controls such a gateway can influence which warships enter a conflict zone and how commercial vessels reach important ports. That creates leverage over both military planning and trade.

Turkey demonstrates this power through the Turkish Straits. Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Ankara controls access to the Black Sea and has blocked certain Russian, Ukrainian, and NATO warships since the invasion. This gives Turkey a central role in deciding whether outside naval forces can reinforce Black Sea security.

The consequences extend beyond military access. Turkey relies heavily on Black Sea trade, while Russia and Ukraine depend on ports and shipping routes targeted during the war. Any change in access could alter deterrence, raise escalation risks, or affect commercial shipping. Russia may eventually challenge Turkey’s gatekeeper role if it wins the war.