El Niño could intensify stress on Keralam’s forests and wildlife

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere conditions. It can influence weather far beyond the Pacific. In this case, experts warn that it may alter monsoon circulation over Keralam. That matters because weaker or uneven rainfall can extend the dry season and increase pressure on forests, plants and wildlife.

The article links El Niño with rainfall deficits and prolonged dry spells. Less rain reduces soil moisture and increases water stress in plants. Forest streams and waterholes that usually last until March or April could dry earlier. Higher temperatures would add to the stress and could bring forward the forest-fire season.

Keralam has a 28% southwest monsoon rainfall deficit, which could worsen conditions if dryness persists. The final effect will depend on local rainfall, temperatures and the length of dry spells. Northeast monsoon rainfall will also be crucial, while researchers continue watching water availability, wildlife movement and forest health.

Keralam has recorded a 28% deficit in southwest monsoon rainfall. This is important because reduced monsoon rain can leave forests with less stored water before the dry season. If dry conditions continue, streams and waterholes may disappear earlier, while plants, wildlife and forest ecosystems face greater stress.

The Forest Survey of India reported 49 large forest fire incidents in Keralam so far in 2026. The comparable figure for 2025 was 52 incidents. Although the 2026 number is lower, the developing El Niño could still increase fire risk if temperatures rise and showers become less frequent.

The figures do not yet establish the full ecological impact of El Niño. Experts say local rainfall patterns, temperature changes and dry-spell duration will shape the outcome. Northeast monsoon rainfall will be especially important for replenishing forest water sources and determining stress on wildlife.

Forests depend on rainfall to maintain soil moisture, streams, waterholes and plant growth. When temperatures rise and dry spells last longer, evaporation and water demand increase while replenishment falls. This creates water stress for plants and animals. It can also make forest vegetation more vulnerable to fire and reduce the resources that wildlife normally finds in its habitat.

A stream or waterhole that usually survives until March or April could dry sooner. Animals may then travel farther to find water, moving toward forest fringes or human-dominated landscapes. Plants may shed leaves, change flowering or fruiting schedules, or struggle to regenerate. Higher temperatures may also cause physiological stress and behavioural changes in wildlife.

The severity will vary with forest type, elevation, soil moisture and local climate. Some species tolerate drought better than others. Experts say field observations are needed to confirm wildlife effects, while northeast monsoon rainfall will help determine how much water remains available.

Water sources help keep wildlife within familiar forest areas. If streams and waterholes dry earlier, animals must search for other places to drink. This changes normal movement patterns and can push wildlife beyond deeper forest areas. The risk matters because forest fringes often border farms, roads, villages and other human-dominated landscapes.

The article gives a clear mechanism: drying water sources force animals to seek alternatives. Those journeys may bring them closer to forest boundaries and people. Rising temperatures and reduced water availability can also create physiological stress and behavioural changes, although experts say these effects need confirmation through field observations.

The possible increase in encounters depends on future weather. Northeast monsoon rainfall will influence water availability, while local rainfall, temperature and dry-spell duration will shape conditions in individual forests. C.K. Vishnudas said a clearer assessment might be possible in about a month, depending on the weather.

Forest streams and waterholes need rainfall spread across their catchments, not just a brief burst in one location. Isolated showers may produce intense runoff locally but leave surrounding soils and channels dry. If rainfall is uneven, water sources across the wider forest may receive little or no meaningful replenishment.

The article notes that high temperatures can trigger localised convective rainfall and isolated heavy downpours. These showers may be intense, but their limited coverage means they might not restore water sources across broad areas. A single downpour therefore cannot necessarily reverse the effects of a long dry spell or refill every stream and waterhole.

This makes the distribution of northeast monsoon rainfall crucial. Experts will need to assess where rain falls, how much arrives and whether it lasts long enough to support forest water availability. The broader ecological impact of El Niño remains uncertain and depends on weather conditions over time.

Forest phenology means the seasonal timing of biological events, including flowering, fruiting, leaf shedding and plant growth. These events are closely linked to rainfall, temperature and other climate conditions. Phenology matters because it helps determine when forests provide food, shelter and other resources for wildlife.

If El Niño brings less rain or longer dry spells, plants may change the timing of these events. Flowering or fruiting could occur at different times, and leaf shedding or growth could also shift. Animals may then encounter less food or find it outside their usual seasonal period. Plant–animal interactions could change, affecting wider ecosystem functioning.

The impact will differ among forest types, elevations and species. K.A. Sreejith said comparing phenology during El Niño years with historical records could help assess these effects. Researchers therefore need continued observations of seasonal vegetation changes alongside rainfall, temperature and soil moisture.

A forest’s canopy can retain its overall green appearance even while drought weakens trees internally. Leaves and crowns may not immediately show the full effects of declining soil moisture and water stress. This makes visual appearance an incomplete measure of forest health. Physiological decline can begin before major changes are obvious from above.

During prolonged drought, vulnerable trees may die, and surviving plants may have less capacity to grow or reproduce. Reduced regeneration means fewer young trees replace older ones. Species that tolerate water stress are more likely to survive and establish. Over time, this can alter forest composition, even if the canopy initially continues to look broadly intact.

The article says impacts depend on forest type, elevation, soil moisture and prevailing climate. Species differ in drought tolerance. Comparing forest phenology during El Niño years with historical records could help researchers detect changes in vegetation, regeneration and longer-term forest condition.