North Will Give Tinubu Over 70% of Votes in 2027, Says Yilwatda

APC leaders are presenting northern support as a major foundation of Tinubu’s 2027 re-election campaign. National Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda predicts that the region will give Tinubu more than 70% of its votes. Vice President Kashim Shettima says the North has already spoken strongly for another term.

Yilwatda links that support to projects and policies. He cites roads across northern states, the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano gas pipeline, irrigation dams, railway projects, healthcare initiatives and the Nigerian Education Loan Fund. He also points to appointments and what he calls inclusive leadership.

Shettima adds an important condition. He says northern support must be earned through facts, transparency and measurable results. He acknowledges difficult economic adjustments and concerns about costs, jobs and household expenses. The political claim is therefore strong, but the vice president says accountability will determine whether confidence continues.

The APC, or All Progressives Congress, is a Nigerian political party. In the article, it is the party associated with President Bola Tinubu, Vice President Kashim Shettima and National Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda. The party’s national chairman is its senior organisational leader and a prominent public voice.

That role includes presenting the party’s case to voters, coordinating its structures and helping mobilise support for its candidates. In Abuja, Yilwatda urged northern voters to support the Tinubu-Shettima ticket. He also moved a motion asking the northern region to back Tinubu’s re-election.

The chairman’s claims matter because they represent the party’s national campaign position, not merely a private opinion. Yilwatda argues that government projects, appointments and initiatives justify northern support. Shettima supports the same political goal but says the administration must prove its record and answer citizens’ concerns.

A result above 70% would mean Tinubu won more than seven of every ten votes cast for the leading presidential candidates across the North. That would give his campaign a very strong regional base and increase his national vote total. The figure is a political prediction, not a reported election result.

The mechanism is simple: presidential votes are counted nationally, so a large margin in one broad region can offset weaker performance elsewhere. For example, Yilwatda points to support linked to roads, rail projects, healthcare, education funding and other government initiatives. Those claims are intended to turn regional approval into votes.

The result would not automatically guarantee victory. Tinubu would still need adequate support in southern states and must satisfy Nigeria’s presidential election rules. The article records the APC prediction, while Makinde’s campaign disputes it by claiming victory in the 12 battleground states and elsewhere.

The North is important because presidential elections are decided by votes gathered across Nigeria’s states, and the region supplies a substantial part of that national electorate. A candidate who performs strongly there can build a large vote base before results from other regions are added. The article frames northern support as central to Tinubu’s re-election effort.

The political mechanism is regional mobilisation. Yilwatda launched a northern campaign structure and urged voters to support Tinubu. Shettima referred to support from Adamawa, Zamfara, Borno and Niger, saying the region had spoken with a clear voice. Their message connects government projects and leadership to voter backing.

Northern importance does not make the region sufficient by itself. Candidates must compete nationwide, and the article records an opposing strategy from Seyi Makinde’s campaign. The MDPCO says Makinde will defeat Tinubu in the 12 battleground states identified by the president, as well as in other states.

Strong northern support would help Tinubu by producing a large regional share of votes and potentially widening his advantage over rivals. Yilwatda’s forecast of more than 70% would give the president’s campaign a substantial starting point in the national count. Shettima presents the North as ready to re-elect him.

The key mechanism is competition between regional strength and battleground performance. APC leaders are building a northern campaign structure and promoting projects as reasons to support Tinubu. In contrast, the Makinde-Daura Presidential Campaign Organisation says its candidate, Seyi Makinde, will defeat Tinubu in the 12 battleground states identified by the president.

That means northern backing could improve Tinubu’s chances, but it cannot settle the election alone. Makinde’s campaign also claims victories in other states across the federation. The final effect would depend on how large Tinubu’s northern margin is and how both candidates perform elsewhere.

Seyi Makinde is identified in the article as the Governor of Oyo State and the presidential candidate of the Allied Peoples Movement, or APM. His campaign is represented by the Makinde-Daura Presidential Campaign Organisation, which directly challenges the APC’s confidence about Tinubu’s northern support.

The campaign’s strategy is to compete where the presidential contest is considered especially consequential. It says Makinde will defeat Tinubu in the 12 battleground states identified by Tinubu, then adds that he will win in other states across the federation. That claim relies on broad national reach rather than one region alone.

The article does not provide the names of the 12 states, polling evidence or detailed campaign plans. It therefore presents Makinde’s position as a political declaration, alongside Yilwatda’s forecast and Shettima’s endorsement. The competing claims show that the 2027 contest is already being framed around regional support and decisive states.

Nigeria’s presidential election turns separate state counts into a national result by adding a candidate’s votes across the federation. Under the constitutional system, a candidate generally needs the highest overall vote and at least one-quarter of votes in at least two-thirds of the states and the Federal Capital Territory. The rule rewards both popularity and geographic spread.

This mechanism explains why regional claims matter but cannot decide the election alone. If Tinubu won more than 70% across northern states, those votes could substantially raise his national total. He would still need support beyond the North. A rival could challenge him by winning heavily in battleground states and building the required nationwide spread.

The article does not explain these election rules, so this constitutional description uses established background knowledge. Within the article, the practical dispute is clear: APC leaders predict strong northern backing, while Makinde’s campaign claims victories in 12 battleground states and elsewhere.