CBS News poll: Talarico-Paxton Senate race is a Texas toss-up

A toss-up is a race with no clear leader. In this poll, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are essentially tied. That matters because small changes in turnout, undecided choices, or late voter decisions could determine the winner.

The candidates have different strengths. Paxton benefits from Texas’s Republican leanings, support for President Trump, and approval of the administration’s deportation program. Talarico benefits from concern about higher prices, stronger ratings for his personal character, and more Democrats saying they will definitely vote.

The race therefore remains open in the closing weeks. Talarico needs strong support from independents, younger voters, and some Republicans. Paxton needs Republicans to show up in large numbers. The poll does not establish a winner; it shows that the final result depends heavily on participation.

The poll describes the Senate race as tight and essentially tied. The supplied article does not give each candidate’s exact percentage, so it cannot establish a numerical lead or precise distance between them. Its main finding is that neither candidate has separated from the other.

CBS News and YouGov interviewed 1,492 registered voters in Texas. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, education, and 2024 presidential vote to reflect the state’s electorate. The survey also reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points for registered voters.

That combination makes the race competitive but not predictable. A small apparent difference could reflect ordinary sampling uncertainty. The article says the closing weeks are up for grabs, especially because turnout intentions differ between Democrats and Republicans. The poll gives context, not a guaranteed forecast.

Turnout is the share of supporters who actually cast ballots. It matters here because the poll is tied, while Texas has more Republicans than Democrats. If one party’s supporters participate at a higher rate, the voting electorate can look different from the overall registered-voter sample.

Talarico’s position is helped by more Democrats saying they will definitely vote. He also leads among voters focused on the cost of living and has strong support from younger voters. But younger people historically turn out less often than older voters. Paxton could gain if more Republicans decide to vote, especially because many Republican supporters are motivated by party loyalty or support for President Trump.

The race is therefore not settled by preference alone. Talarico must activate younger voters, independents, and some Republicans. Paxton must maintain the state’s Republican advantage through participation. The article says either turnout pattern could change the outcome.

Paxton’s core support comes from Republicans, voters who want to support President Trump, and people who oppose Talarico. Republicans also say Talarico’s policies threaten their culture and way of life. Nearly half view him as very liberal, and that perception pushes them toward Paxton.

Talarico draws some Republicans, including 5% of people identifying as Republicans. He also attracts 9% of people who usually never vote for Democrats but say they will this time. Independents matter because Talarico needs to do overwhelmingly well with them. Younger voters currently support him in large percentages, but their turnout is usually lower. Most Latino voters now back Talarico after shifting toward Trump in 2024.

Latino voters are especially important because many report hardship from higher prices and doubt Paxton’s character. These groups can help Talarico overcome Texas’s Republican tilt, but only if they participate in sufficient numbers.

A party’s size matters before campaigning even begins. Texas has more Republicans than Democrats, so a Republican nominee starts with a larger base of voters who may support him. That underlying advantage helps Paxton even though the poll finds the race essentially tied.

Talarico cannot rely only on Democratic voters. The article says he needs to win overwhelmingly among independents, gain some Republican votes, or activate enough new voters to offset the Republican edge. His campaign’s openings include economic concerns, higher ratings for his personal character, and support among younger and Latino voters.

The tied poll shows that Paxton’s structural advantage is not decisive by itself. Turnout could either preserve it or weaken it. Talarico’s challenge is converting favorable opinions among groups outside the Democratic base into actual ballots. Paxton’s challenge is ensuring Republicans participate at a high enough rate to use their numerical advantage.

Party identity strongly shapes the race, but specific issues can change a voter’s choice. The cost of living is Texas voters’ top issue, and most say higher prices have hurt them. Among those voters, Talarico has a sizable lead. His stronger personal-character ratings also attract voters who value who should serve as senator.

Immigration works differently. Texas voters give more support than voters nationally to the Trump administration’s deportation program, which benefits Paxton. Many Republicans also believe Talarico represents a threat to their culture and way of life. Talarico’s supporters express a similar concern about Paxton. These views can reinforce or override normal party preferences.

The article gives examples of movement across party boundaries. Talarico wins 5% of Republicans and 9% of people who usually never vote Democratic but say they will now. Paxton, meanwhile, gains votes from Republicans motivated by Trump or opposition to Talarico. The balance depends on which issues voters prioritize.

A representative sample is a smaller group designed to resemble the larger voting population. Pollsters interview those voters and weight the results using characteristics such as gender, age, race, education, and past presidential voting. This helps estimate broader opinion without asking every voter.

Likely-voter models focus on people considered most likely to cast ballots. They may use voting intention and reported certainty, which matters here because Democrats and Republicans differ in how definitely they say they will vote. A likely-voter result can therefore differ from a registered-voter result when participation is uneven.

The margin of error describes expected sampling uncertainty. In this survey, it is plus or minus 3.4 points for registered voters and 3.5 points for likely voters. It does not account for every polling problem or predict turnout perfectly. The article’s conclusion remains cautious: the race is essentially tied and up for grabs.